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Horse Racing The Cards Column Tips: Turf them out, Smithy!
The first Cards Column of 2025 was red-hot! All three bets landed at 1.91, 2.1 & 6.0 making this week a hard act to follow.
But Matt Kirby has looked over the card and booking points markets to try and find the value. He’s found three plays across the Premier League and Championship.
- Burnley vs Leeds: Over 4 Asian Cards
- QPR vs Sheff Wednesday: Jonathan Varane To Be Booked
- Wolves vs Arsenal: Over 4.5 Asian Cards
Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: Big games for Brooks and Smith
Chelsea have been handed a fine for surrounding the official in their Ipswich game last month. The referee in that one was John Brooks, who has been handed the Blues trip to Man City on Saturday. There’s also a return for Michael Oliver after sitting out last week. He’s at Molineux.
First up on Friday night is Andrew Kitchen when he takes charge of Sheff Utd vs Hull. Kitchen showed just one caution in his midweek game. Martin Coy is an experienced National List ref, getting a chance in the second tier for Coventry’s home game with Watford. Monday night’s table-of-the-table clash between Burnley and Leeds will be overseen by Josh Smith.
Jacob Miles landed us one of our winners last weekend, showing 100 booking points in Stevenage vs Wigan. He had a midweek game that saw 70bp, so Bradford vs Walsall is one to note given Miles’ appointment. Low-card issuer Paul Howard has Huddersfield vs Bolton.
In League Two, Matt Corlett has shown 4+ cards in 10 of his 11 games, so that puts Fleetwood vs Carlisle on the radar. Elsewhere, there’s an EFL debut for Richard Eley with a Yorkshire derby between Doncaster and Harrogate.
Burnley vs Leeds: It’ll be tense between promotion rivals
England, Championship, Monday, January 27th, 20:00 (UK)
I’ll wait for Monday’s Championship clash between third-place Burnley and table-toppers Leeds for my first pick.
The sides are separated by just three points, and whenever there’s a game with meaning between the top sides, they’re usually cagey, tense encounters. And that brings with it a fair few cards.
You shouldn’t expect many goals in this one as Burnley (19) have kept the most clean sheets in the league, while Leeds have had 16 shutouts of their own, which is the joint second-most. No goalscorer, anyone?
When you factor in what’s at stake, then it’s hard not to envisage a couple of meaty challenges and a few of a cynical nature. So, on paper, the look of the Over 4 Asian Card line looks backable.
In September when these two met at Elland Road, there were 105 booking pints handed out – eight yellows and one red. That cleared this line emphatically, while it would have seen this line guaranteed a push by half-time with four first-half yellows.
I’m hoping that some of that animosity is still lingering and is seen to full effect to give us a fierce, full-blooded contest.
Burnley average 13.1 fouls per game with Leeds at 11.5, so there’s a feeling that Josh Smith will have to keep a lid on things. Plus, if Hannibal is involved, then that can only work in our favour.
In terms of cards, their respective combined averages come out around 3.6 yellows – just below the line we want. But as mentioned, with September’s niggle and an automatic promotion spot up for grabs, things could turn spicy. And do I need to mention any potential dark arts, especially those of James Trafford?
I’ve mentioned him already but Josh Smith will be tasked with keeping a lid on things. He showed seven yellows in his midweek assignment as Portsmouth beat Stoke 3-1.
That game made it 15 of Smith’s 20 league games to have seen at least four cards, so that’s a refund in at least 75% of his outings. Although a full payout for 5+ cards has landed in just 45% of those middles.
Smith took charge of Burnley’s goalless draw at Middlesbrough last month. That saw four yellows, with three going to those in Claret. Meanwhile, his sole involvement with Leeds saw four cautions and a red (six cards using bet365 rules).
For all the reasons above, I just can’t see either side blowing the other away. So, a tight, hard-fought 90 minutes can only lead to referee Smith being in the thick of the action with his cards.
- Selection: Over 4 Asian cards (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.83
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Jonathan Varane To Be Booked: Hoops man to chop down soaring Owl
England, Championship, Saturday, January 25th, 15:00 (UK)
Marti Cifuentes and Danny Rohl were the saviours of their clubs last season, dragging them away from relegation. Now both are showing they’re capable of more as they sit just four points outside the play-off places, with QPR on a tremendous run since mid-November.
The confidence should be flooding through the veins of those in hoops, while Wednesday’s 3-0 defeat to Leeds last weekend was harsh given their performance.
This could be a good watch for a neutral, although the 15:00 kick-off doesn’t help the viewing with the blackout. Despite that, this is the game where I think we could see a few cards, so have delved into the player markets.
I’ve landed on QPR’s Jonathan Varane, who has seven yellows to his name this season. One of those came in the first minute of last weekend’s 1-0 victory at Plymouth, which just shows he’s the perfect candidate for a card.
Varane is QPR’s top tackler, averaging 2.2 per game, while he commits 1.43 fouls per 90 according to PlayerStats. And to help the case further, he’s seen yellow in three of his last six Championship appearances.
The defensive midfielder’s numbers look good on their own for his 4.5 price with bet365. But we can take it a step further considering he’ll be up against Sheff Wednesday’s Djeidi Gassama.
The young Frenchman draws 2.5 fouls per game – the third-most in the league – which must put the QPR right side on high alert. Gassama’s electric pace is troublesome, while his direct nature makes him difficult to stop fairly.
In midweek, Gassama scored in the Owl’s 2-2 draw with Bristol City. In that one, he created three chances, was 5/5 for successful dribbles and won eight ground duels. This lad looks like he can play and might not be sticking around in Yorkshire for too long.
So, we’ll have to cash in on Gassama drawing fouls and cards from Championship opponents while we can. The first of those is going to be Varane at 4.5.
And if you want to be greedy, then throw our man into a double with Jimmy Dunne at 19.0. The Irish Cafu has six cautions for QPR this season from right-back and saw yellow in the reverse for a foul on Yan Valery.
The final man to introduce is referee Sam Allison. He’s averaging 4.7 cards per game in my figures and has been kept pretty busy in his previous two Sheff Wed games. They’ve seen a total of 11 yellows and a red, while he’s awarded the Owls opponents a penalty in each of those.
A speedy, direct Gassama can trouble this QPR side, so I’ll take the 4.5 on Varane to chop him down and take a yellow.
- Selection: Jonathan Varane to be booked (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 4.5
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 5/10
Wolves vs Arsenal: Cards worth their weight in Old Gold
England, Premier League, Saturday, January 25th, 15:00 (UK)
My final pick comes in one of the Saturday 15:00 kick-offs in the Premier League. Arsenal will be looking to keep tabs on leaders Liverpool with victory at relegation-threatened Wolves.
But I don’t expect it to be plain sailing for the Gunners, who look shaky without William Saliba. So if the likes of Jorgen Strand Larsen and Matheus Cunha can capitalise, this could get very interesting.
I’ll start by saying that Michael Oliver is in charge. He’s back from a bit of a break, so will hopefully be fresh to dish out plenty of cards. So far, Oliver averages 5.3 per game and has shown 4+ in 12 of his 16 league games (75%).
The numbers for Oliver make that Over 4.5 Asian Card line look backable at 1.90. It’s seen a payout in 63% of his Premier League games this season, including four of his last five in the top flight (6, 3, 7, 5 & 6).
This will be Oliver’s fourth game in charge of Arsenal. Those have yielded card counts of 4, 10 and 6. While his sole Wolves game saw six yellows in their draw at Brighton – three cards each. So, I like his numbers!
The teams are decent too with a few persistent offenders in their ranks that could draw Oliver’s attention. Wolves average 2.2 and Arsenal 2.55 yellows, which takes it close to our line.
The last couple of meetings have toyed with this kind of line. This game last season did get the five required for a payout, while earlier in the season, there were four cards in total – three coming in the first hour.
At home, only three sides concede more fouls than Wolves’ 12.3, while Arsenal give away 11.5 fouls on their travels. More than enough for plenty of whistling, imaginary card-waving, and I’m sure, something anti-Arsenal.
I’m still trying to get a gauge on Wolves under Vitor Pereira, but games against Chelsea and Man Utd both had six cards. While the foul counts in the matches since he took over have been 31, 24, 19, 18, 27, 23 & 22 – even the 27 was in the FA Cup, so enough to suggest there’ll be fouls here too.
The Gunners’ away games have cleared this line on seven from 11 and it’s also landed in seven of Wolves’ home encounters (from 10).
Oliver’s card counts have been strong in recent weeks and there’s enough in the numbers to say there might be a couple of flashpoints and aggro. That leads me to take this over 4.5 line.
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