The Cards Column Tips: Player Cards, Team Bookings and Referee Data 

Due to the international break, this weekend’s Cards Column shines the spotlight on League One and League Two. 

There’s the usual referee appointments and data, as well as three of the best bets from the card and booking points markets. 

• Swindon vs Sutton: Both teams 30+ booking points
• Bradford vs Grimsby: Harry Clifton To Be Booked
• MK Dons vs Notts County: Notts County most booking points

Odds via bet365 and Skybet as at 11:30, 8th September 2023. Odds may now differ.

The Data from League One and League Two: Team Bookings and Referee Data

There’s a reduced slate on Saturday, with the international break impacting the Premier League and Championship as per. But there are only two games in League One that have avoided the cancellations.

We get the chance to see four officials making their first starts of the season on Saturday. The most eye-catching of them is the return of Select Group 1 referee Chris Kavanagh in Notts County’s trip to MK Dons.

Two of last season’s higher card issuers from the National List also return, which is pleasing from a punting perspective, so welcome back to Declan Bourne and Alan Young.

It’s also good to see Sam Purkiss featuring in this round of matches after his involvement in Port Vale’s win at Oxford last weekend. More on him below.

Swindon vs Sutton: Cards to fly at the County Ground 

England, League Two, Saturday, September 9th, 15:00 (UK)

It’s straight into League Two for the first bet this weekend, where Sutton travels to Swindon in a game that looks marked for cards.

The visitors find themselves in 23rd place on just three points and haven’t won since the opening day. In comparison, Swindon sits in mid-table but failed to see off winless Doncaster last weekend despite playing the second half with a man advantage.

With limited markets available on bet365, it’s a case of utilising Sky Bet this weekend. And for this one, go for 30+ booking points for each team – but do it in the Bet Builder feature to get the 15/8 price rather than the 13/8 from the market itself – just add 30+ Swindon BP along with 30+ Sutton BP to get that better price – a lovely flaw!

The Robins have hit 30+ BP in four of their five games, getting totals of 40, 30, 30 & 40 in those fixtures. While Sutton – who were great for cards on the road last season – have landed 30+ BP in three of six.

That 50% doesn’t sound much for Sutton; however, they’ve played two away games, and they’ve picked up 35 and 30 in those two matches, so last season’s theme seems to continue. 

When card markets were set at the lower 20+ BP team lines, Matt Gray’s men were the kings, landing that in 18 away matches in total, so they’re a team that referees tend to keep a watchful eye over.

The man in the middle at the County Ground is National List rookie Ben Atkinson. So far, he’s shown a liking for his cards. He’s dished out 23 yellows and two reds in four League Two matches. His EFL Trophy game in midweek saw him brandish four yellows and two reds.

Atkinson’s games have seen booking points totals of 75, 70, 40 and 85 – the last being a 55-30 split, which is ideal for what we want in this contest.

With Swindon ranking joint-second for fouls per 90 in League Two (13.2), a card-happy referee and two teams that generally see plenty of yellows, expect the cards to fly at the County Ground.

• Selection: Both Teams 30+ Booking Points
• Best Odds: 2.88
• Bookmaker: SkyBet
• Stake: 5/10

Harry Clifton To Be Booked: The new ‘Dirty Harry’ 

England, League Two, Saturday, September 9th, 12:30 (UK)

The televised offering from the Football League takes us to Valley Parade as Bradford hosts Grimsby, so with the cameras there, we’ve got a player card market to dip into.

Bradford are up there for being one of the worst disciplined sides in the division, with 17 yellows and a red. Yet I’m leaning towards a Grimsby player with this pick despite the visitors having seen just 12 yellows in comparison.

The reasoning for that is quite straightforward. There’s a player for the visitors who has started in all six league games and has been booked in three of those. Not only that, he’s also joint-top of the fouls committed charts with 16.

Step forward, Harry Clifton. The Grimsby midfielder is 5/2 to see his fourth card of the season. That price indicates an implied probability of nearly 29%, yet it’s copped in 50% of his starts. Or, narrow it down to solely Grimsby away games, 100%, having been booked in the 34th minute at Notts County and 89th at Walsall. 

We’ve also got a notable referee appointment too. Sam Purkiss had a busy day last weekend, as he sent off two Oxford players as they went down 2-1 at home to Port Vale. Purkiss was also one of the better National List performers for cards in the 2022/23 season, and that trend looks to continue.

Purkiss has dished out 13 yellows and three reds in his three league outings. Plus, he showed six more cautions in the EFL Cup game between Forest Green and Portsmouth. So, with an average of 5.7 cards per 90, it’s hard to ignore a player who commits plenty of fouls when this eagle-eyed ref is around.

Somewhat ironically, Clifton was booked when Grimsby lost 5-0 at Swindon last season. That game started with Purkiss in charge, but an early ball to the face saw him leave the field of play early on before the replacement official sanctioned the Mariners man. 

• Selection: Harry Clifton to be Booked
• Best Odds: 3.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

MK Dons vs Notts County: Magpies to peck away 

England, League Two, Saturday, September 9th, 15:00 (UK)

The early pace-setters in League Two collide at Stadium:MK, with Notts County unbeaten (W4/D1) since their opening day hammering at Sutton. 

And it’s the Magpies that I want to focus on for the final punt of this weekend. The 11/10 quotes for them to pick up the most booking points seem a nice angle into this fixture.

On the bare numbers alone, MK Dons have picked up 13 yellow cards – an average of 2.2 per 90. Whilst County sit second for the most cards – 19 cautions and one red – an average of 3.5 cards per game.

So, straight away, that points me to this market. On top of that, MK Dons are the most-fouled team in the division, averaging 13.3 free kicks per match. Cameron Norman has been fouled 15 times, while team-mate Dan Harvie has been 12 times, so they could be targets for a bit of roughing up.

Looking at the team totals, MK Dons have only received two cards across their last two league games (one in each). While at home, they’ve picked up 20 BP and 10 BP – not a lot at all.

In contrast, County have picked up the most booking points in three games this season – the other three have been draws for this market. They collected 55 BP at Sutton and 30 BP at Doncaster, while last weekend at home to Accrington, they won the booking points count 40-20. 

Select Group 1 referee Chris Kavanagh is an eye-catching appointment to this game as he makes his return for the new season. Kavanagh was one of the lower-ranking officials in the data sheet for the last campaign, so it’ll be interesting to see how he lays down the new directives.

Kavanagh’s first game last season came in the Championship, as Reading won 1-0 away at Millwall. That game saw just one caution – it went to Tom Holmes of the visiting Royals.

So, it’s hard to ignore a County side who have picked up more cards than MK Dons, with the hosts drawing plenty of fouls. With that in mind, take the Magpies to peck away at their hosts.

• Selection: Notts County Most Booking Points
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: SkyBet
• Stake: 5/10

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