The Cards Column Tips: No friendly feeling at the late stage of the season

It’s crunch time in the Premier League with just two more full rounds of fixtures, while the EFL play-offs, specifically the Championship in this write-up, are in full swing. Matt Kirby has researched the card markets for his favourite card and bookings tips on this weekend’s slate. 

In this article: 

• Norwich vs Leeds: Over 3.5 cards & over 0.5 Cards Each Team in the Second Half
• Man Utd vs Arsenal: Diogo Dalot To Be Booked
• Wolves vs Crystal Palace: 40+ Booking Points

Referee Appointments in the Premier League and Championship: Top-flight debut for Donohue

The experienced Anthony Taylor will get the weekend’s Premier League action underway when Man City visit Fulham on Saturday lunchtime. One of the 3pm games has a fresher face. Matt Donohue makes his Premier League debut in Bournemouth v Brentford.

Paul Tierney is in charge of Sunday’s sole game, as leaders Arsenal go to Old Trafford to face a beleaguered Man Utd. Looking further, Chris Kavanagh has Man City’s game in hand at Spurs on Tuesday.

Two other bits of housekeeping. Firstly, congratulations to Andy Madley on being appointed to the FA Cup final.

Secondly, here are the Championship play-off semi-final first-leg referees:

• Norwich v Leeds: Josh Smith – 32 matches, 25 of them have seen 4+ cards, showing 2+ to each team in 14.
• West Brom v Southampton: Sam Barrott – 36 matches, 13 of them have seen 4+ cards, showing 2+ to each team in eight. You guessed it, he’s one of the lower card issuers.

Here are the League 2 semi-final second-leg referees:

• Doncaster v Crewe (2-0): Scott Oldham – 33 matches, 16 of them have seen 4+ cards, showing 2+ to each team in six.
• MK Dons v Crawley (0-3): Seb Stockbridge – 22 matches, 16 of them have seen 4+ cards, showing 2+ to each team in 14.

Norwich vs Leeds: Tensions to flare in first leg

England, Championship, Sunday, May 12th, 12:00 (UK)

Leeds, Leeds are falling apart again! The Yorkshire side don’t have fond memories of the play-off in recent campaigns and Norwich will aim to cause them more end-of-season woe. 

The worry for Leeds heading to Carrow Road was how they ended the regular season. It was four defeats in six (W1 D1), including that 4-0 humiliation at Loftus Road. Sometimes those linger in the minds and Norwich will look to capitalise on any slack Leeds play.

Here’s the thing with the first legs. There’s probably an assumption – rightly or wrongly – that they tend to be slow burners, with neither side wanting to be out of the tie. That theory would make you lean towards cautious passages of play as both teams don’t want to make a mistake.

While that might be the case, we’ve got two sides who boast quality attacking options, which leads me to take cards for clumsy, or even, cynical challenges. 

Josh Smith is the referee for this one and he averages 4.6 cards per game. From his average, 3.2 of those come in the second half. So, if you see that and you’re a regular reader, you might know where I’m going.

My first point about Smith is that on the final weekend, he refereed a dead-rubber game between Coventry and QPR. Neither side had anything to play for yet he still showed five yellows, three after the break. 

He’s already taken charge of four Leeds league games, producing 3, 5 8 & 4 cards – he sent keeper Illan Meslier off at Preston. Meanwhile, he showed nine across his pair of Norwich outings, including a red to Blackburn’s Scott Wharton in their defeat at Carrow Road. 

It was the visitors who ran out 3-2 winners when the sides met here in the regular season. That saw five cards to highlight the theory of cards. 

These two sides both average 10 fouls committed per game. But we all know the likes of Crysencio Summerville and Georginio Rutter draw plenty, which could see them react to a heavy challenge if things aren’t going their way in this febrile atmosphere. 

Smith has four or more cards in 25 of his 32 league outings, which means we’ll take the over 3.5 cards line for the first part of our bet builder. Combine it with both teams to pick up a card in the second half.  

The referee’s last Leeds outing saw him show three second-half cautions against Hull – a 1-2 split. And five of the Whites’ last seven games have seen a card each after half-time.

A tight, cagey first leg might be forecast by many, but we’ve got attackers to light up Carrow Road. I’m hoping for a few second-half flashpoints for Smith to contend with and mete out the discipline. 

• Selection: Over 3.5 cards & over 0.5 Cards Each Team in the Second Half (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Diogo Dalot To Be Booked: Reds will have backs to the rope

England, Premier League, Sunday, May 12th, 16:30 (UK)

Sunday’s only Premier League game and one that will have a huge impact on the title race is where I’m heading for my player pick.

Man Utd fans must be fearing the worst after their side’s horror show at Crystal Palace on Monday. And this Arsenal side could well feast on some sloppy defending – one that’s been dealt its fair share of injury problems.

You have to feel that Arsenal will pile on the pressure. Their quest for the title, and probably to regain top spot (if Man City beat Fulham on Saturday), is probably going to spur them on at the Theatre of Dreams.

There are no secrets about this Arsenal attack. Only three players in the Premier League have been fouled more often than Bukayo Saka (67) this season, which could give us options depending on Erik ten Hag’s left-back preference.

Aaron Wan Bissaka and Diogo Dalot have both deputised in that position in recent weeks, while there’s talk Luke Shaw could return – that might be a stretch.

But it’s Dalot that intrigues me most. He’s committed the joint-most fouls in the United ranks, alongside Bruno Fernandes, which always marks you as a candidate. He’s only picked up four yellows but was sent off for some silliness at Liverpool. 

Constant Gunners’ pressure could see him resort to fouling to break up the play. Plus, there’s the off-chance of trying to waste time at a throw-in, again to reduce pressure on his team-mates.

Bournemouth’s Adam Smith last weekend, Chelsea’s Alfie Gilchrist and Bayern’s Joshua Kimmich (first leg) are right-backs booked against Mikel Arteta’s side. A few left-backs feature in those games as well – Ben Davies (Spurs), Marc Cucurella (Chelsea) and Alphonso Davies (Bayern).

With Leandro Trossard/Gabriel Martinelli down one side and Saka the other, then whichever side Dalot finds himself on, he’ll be kept busy. His tackle/foul lines are worth a look as well for some ladders. The Portugal international will be in the thick of things! 

I’m taking the 4.33 with Sky Bet rather than the 3.50 Bet365 are offering. United’s defensive injuries should mean he starts and plays the full 90.

• Selection: Diogo Dalot to be Booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 4.33 
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 5/10

Wolves vs Crystal Palace: Wolves games tend to pack a punch

England, Premier League, Saturday, May 11th, 15:00 (UK)

On paper, this game from Molineux looks something of a dead rubber. But both managers will keep their players up to their work as they look to end on a high.

Palace are doing just that under Oliver Glasner after humbling Man Utd 4-0 on Monday. Meanwhile, Wolves are aiming to bounce back from their 5-1 defeat to an Erling Haaland-inspired Man City.

Bet365 opened their cards market at 3.5 in the match at 1.83. However, that was quickly nibbled into 1.72 making it a bit too short. And their Bet Builder isn’t allowing too many options to combine cards, so I was relieved to see Sky Bet go 1.91 for 40+ booking points.

This is the same play, requiring four yellows (one is worth 10 booking points) to get a payout. 

Only Chelsea (98) have picked up more yellows than Wolves (96) this season. Gary O’Neil’s side averages 2.7 yellows per home game, while they draw 2.9 from their opponents. So, their matches tend to be laden with cautions.

Palace are lower with those respective figures of 1.7 picked up, while opponents collect 1.8. But you just look at this side and think they can cause Wolves plenty of problems, so I also suspect those in gold shirts will see more cards. A separate play on the hosts to pick up the most booking points 2.38 (Sky) appeals on those bare numbers.

Despite Palace not picking up a huge amount of cards, they still commit 12.1 fouls per game – the fourth-most. And one team who ranks higher is the side that hosts the Eagles here – Wolves (12.6).

So, with two sides that get stuck in, committing plenty of fouls, you’d expect that referee Thomas Bramall will be called on throughout. 

This season, Bramall averages 4.9 cards per game and he’s got a fairly even split between the halves he dishes them out – 2.1 first and 2.8 second. That shows he’s usually keen to clamp down early and set the tone.

What also helps is that from the 22.7 games he’s taken charge of, he’s shown 40+ booking points 16 times (70% strike rate). You might ask how he’s got .7 of a game, but he replaced James Bell on Stoke v Ipswich after about 20 minutes on New Year’s Day.

That Championship game saw him show three yellows and a red when he came on, although most databases/sites have attributed all the cards from that game to Bell, unlike my data.

Bramall’s got a higher average than this line, which makes it worth a play. His last eight league games have had booking points totals of 40, 115, 70, 20, 20, 50, 50 & 60. So, it’s landed in six of those. And the final number came when he gave three yellows to each team as Palace beat Newcastle last month. 

His only previous visit to Molineux this season saw him brandish five yellows, as Wolves beat Everton 3-0 in December. 

Reverting to the two teams, their last three meetings have seen 40, 90 and 40 booking points. Plus, this has landed in eight of Wolves’ last nine league games after they picked up four yellows on their own at Man City last weekend.

The foul averages, Wolves card data, and the referee marry up nicely for me to take this booking points approach in the Midlands. 

• Selection: 40+ Booking Points (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 10/10

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