The Cards Column Tips: Searching for value across the leagues

The Cards Column is here to bring you the weekend’s referee appointments and data ahead of the Premier League and Football League action. It sees Matt Kirby tee up his three favourite bets, with the top-three tiers covered.

• Watford vs Derby: 40+ Match Booking Points
• Southampton vs Nottingham Forest: Will Smallbone To Be Booked
• Leyton Orient vs Birmingham: 30+ Leyton Orient booking points

Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: New names and familiar cardsharks

Stuart Attwell, Darren England and Darren Bond have their first Premier League middles of the season, as Michael Oliver oversees Arsenal’s trip to Aston Villa. 

The south Wales derby goes to Oli Langford, who gave 40 free kicks and six yellows in his opening Championship assignment, so that could be an interesting one.

The summer’s restructuring of the National List will see a deeper pool with plenty of new names. The likes of Richie Watkins, Stephen Parkinson and Farai Hallam are all in their first full seasons in the league after a handful of trial games last term. 

One familiar face is cardshark Charles Breakspear. He dished out seven yellows in his first game – all in the second half. Good luck to Burton and Stevenage on Saturday!

Watford vs Derby: What happens when you cross a Hornet with a Ram?

England, Championship, Saturday, August 24th, 15:00 (UK)

Not many would have predicted Watford to be one of three teams with a 100% record after two games in the Championship. I know a few who have predicted the Hornets to find themselves in something of a scrap!

Tom Cleverley’s side netted three second-half goals to beat Stoke at Vicarage Road last weekend. Now, they welcome new boys Derby, who will be buoyed by their first league win against Middlesbrough.

I know we’re only two games in, but only Portsmouth (7) have seen more yellows than Derby (6) and Watford (5) so far. 

This was the first Saturday game in the Championship with prices available, where 40+ booking points is available to back at 1.80. That looks quite a price as I was expecting to see more of a 50 line.

Watford’s two league games have seen 50bp and 40bp, with the Hornets picking up 30bp at Millwall and 20bp last weekend.

For Derby games, 40bp has been the magic number. Both games have hit this line, with the Rams seeing three yellows in each match, so I expect them to do plenty of the work. 

That said, it’s Cleverley’s side who average more fouls (13.5) and draw 12 per 90 to encourage we could be in for a magical two cards each situation. 

Last weekend, Watford had joy creating overloads in wide areas, so Derby pair Callum Elder and potentially Ryan Nyambe will have to be on their mettle. Hornets defender Francisco Sierralta is out to maintain his 100% card record after seeing yellow against Millwall and Stoke.

The man in the middle is Geoff Eltringham. His first outing came in League Two last weekend, where he dished out six cards in a bore draw between Bradford and Salford. A couple of those cautions came in the first half, and a repeat here would set us up perfectly, especially if the visitors can keep it tight for as long as possible. 

The Wearside whistler made two trips to Vicarage Road last season, with those games producing nine yellows. So, hopefully, these two teams set out with sinister intentions to cause Eltringham to reach into his pocket. 

• Selection: 40+ Match Booking Points (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 10/10

Will Smallbone To Be Booked: Is Smallbone a Saint or sinner?

England, Premier League, Saturday, August 24th, 15:00 (UK)

Southampton’s return to the Premier League saw a heated affair against Newcastle at St. James’ Park. Now they have the chance to make amends following that narrow defeat as they welcome Nottingham Forest to St. Mary’s.

After going down 1-0 last Saturday, the number of fouls Saints players made was noticeable (16). In the middle of the park, Will Smallbone made three and somehow escaped sanction from Craig Pawson despite being a tasty affair.

Smallbone is priced at 5.00 on bet365, yet Sky Bet have gone 9.00 for him to be booked. To me, that looks like a huge price for various reasons.

Obviously, last weekend’s three fouls prove he doesn’t mind rolling his sleeves up and getting stuck in. And that he was shown with his eight cautions last season as the Saints came up via the play-offs.

In that promotion campaign, Smallbone often found himself as one of the last lines of defence as the Saints flooded forward from open play and set pieces. 

If that’s the case here, we could see Smallbone having to track back to deal with a breaking Morgan Gibbs-White or Callum Hudson-Odoi. That could see him take one for the team and stop a promising Forest counter-attack. 

Last weekend, Forest drew three cards from Bournemouth, including holding midfielder Lewis Cook and sub winger Justin Kluivert. So, with Smallbone occupying a similar position to Cook, he could face the same fate.

I wouldn’t tend to pick a player in a game refereed by Sam Barrott, but he showed a liking for his cards last weekend. Despite being a low-card issuer last term, Barrott dished out six as Brentford beat Crystal Palace on Sunday – three in each half. And I do think this game could see a fair few.

Russell Martin’s side averaged 2.4 cards per game in the Championship last season. So, with this Forest side having players who can draw free kicks and cautions, I’m more than willing to take a player in red and white to see yellow, especially at what looks a gigantic price.

• Selection: Will Smallbone to be booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 9.00
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 3/10

Leyton Orient vs Birmingham: TEASER

England, League One, Saturday, August 24th, 15:00 (UK)

The bookies seemed slow to price and release their card markets last weekend, so I’m grateful to see a full list across the leagues on Sky Bet.

Having looked through the data, Leyton Orient caught the eye. The O’s welcome red-hot pre-season favourites Birmingham to Brisbane Road, and the hosts could find themselves on the wrong end of a card-happy referee.

The Blues have made an unbeaten start (W1 D1) to their campaign, but it’s the winless O’s who will be eager to register their first points.

It’s been a tricky start for Richie Wellens’ side. Defeat against Bolton, which saw them record 50 booking points, and a late concession in a 1-0 loss at Charlton, where they got 40 booking points, won’t be made easier by the visit of Birmingham.

Those nine yellows see them top the League One card charts at these early knockings. Plus, they rank joint-second for fouls committed per game (15.5). If they can keep Birmingham at bay, we could see a couple of home cards for delaying the game and time-wasting.

That’s something referee Anthony Backhouse will be hot on. This season, he showed six cards in the EFL Cup tie between Leeds and Middlesbrough (three each) and hit 75 booking points in last weekend’s 2-2 draw between Sheffield Utd and QPR.

Early signs are promising for this official and cards. Looking at his league data in 2024 shows booking points totals of 90, 90, 50, 60, 60, 10, 40, 40, 50 & 35.

That’s a lot of cards brandished, which makes me feel the 30+ Leyton Orient booking points at 2.10 is an angle of attack. 

Birmingham were on the road at Wycombe last week. That saw the hosts pick up 30 booking points to help the case for Orient cards. And with the players the Blues have assembled, it’s not much of a shock to see them drawing 15 free kicks per 90.

They also top the possession chart (73.8%), miles clear of anyone else, so we can expect them to dominate the ball. If they move it well, they could easily draw Orient players into committing fouls, which should force Backhouse to take action. 

With Orient seeing plenty of early-season cards and an official who generally seems card-happy, this 2.1 angle has to be worth a look.

• Selection: 30+ Leyton Orient booking points
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 7/10

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