The Cards Column Tips: MD29 Player Cards, Team Bookings and Referee Data

It’s FA Cup fourth-round weekend, so there’s a depleted fixture list in the Football League for Matt Kirby to find his cards and booking tips.

There are just three Championship games, with one making the cut for the TV on Sunday. While EFL sides like Newport and Norwich aim to cause a cup upset.

• Sunderland vs Stoke: Under 3 First-Half Cards & Over 2 Second-Half Cards
• Millwall vs Preston: Liam Lindsay To Be Booked
• QPR vs Huddersfield: Under 3 Cards for Each Team

Odds via bet365 as of 21:00, January 25th. Odds may now differ.

The Data from the Championship, League One and League Two: Team Bookings and Referee Data

Stephen Martin has the Championship TV game between QPR and Huddersfield. There’s a rare appearance from Select Group 1 ref Graham Scott. He takes charge of Reading v Leyton Orient in League One, where there might be another protest.

Select Group 2 members Geoff Eltringham and Leigh Doughty both have matches. American Alex Chilowicz continues his good run of games, while there’s an EFL debut for Development Group official Stephen Parkinson.

Sunderland vs Stoke: Follow the data trends

England, Championship, Saturday, January 27th, 15:00 (UK)

How much pressure will Michael Beale be under when Stoke are the visitors to the Stadium of Light?

The Sunderland boss received plenty of pelters from the home crowd after their 1-0 home defeat to Hull – a third straight loss in all competitions.

Stoke will aim to bounce back after going down 2-1 to Birmingham last Saturday, their first league defeat under Steven Schumacher. The Potters created plenty of chances in a performance that didn’t lack endeavour, but missed the killer instinct in front of goal.

There’s no Alex Neil factor to this fixture this time around after his departure from the Potters dugout, so that could take some spice out of the occasion.

That leads to this weekend’s first play. It takes on a different angle to what I’ve done before, but hear me out.

Combine under three first-half cards with over two second-half cards at 2.00 using the Bet365 Bet Builder. Andy Davies – the man in charge – heavily uses his cards after half-time compared to the first half.

As you can see in the chart above, Davies averages 0.7 cards in the first half compared to 3.5 in the second. So, straight away it looks like an angle to follow when Davies has the whistle.

Going back through my data shows the Hampshire-based official is yet to show 3+ cards in the first half in any of his 15 league games so far. His first-half numbers reveal the following:

• 0 first-half cards: 7/15
• 1 first-half cards: 6/15
• 2 first-half cards: 2/15

On that evidence, it’s fair to say that he likes to keep his powder dry for as long as possible. So, that might be the possibility of a higher threshold to warrant a card.

That 3.5 second-half average is a solid start for cards after the break. Again, looking through his numbers shows the following:

• 0 or 1 second-half cards: 3/15
• 2 second-half cards: 1/15
• 3 or 4 second-half cards: 8/15
• 5+ second-half cards: 3/15

That’s plenty of cards issued in the second 45, with the over 2 second-half cards coming good in 11 of his 15 league middles.

This bet has won in 11 of Davies’ 15 games (73%), which holds enough appeal to play this game in this style.

Sunderland average 2.1 cards per league game, while the Potters average 2.5. So, the two sides attract cards, I’m hoping they all come in the second half.

• Selection: Under 3 First-Half Cards & Over 2 Second-Half Cards (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Liam Lindsay To Be Booked: Lindsay to be thrown to the Lions

England, Championship, Saturday, January 27th, 15:00 (UK)

The second and final Championship game on Saturday comes from The Den. Preston make the trip to the capital with a full squad after an illness bug swept through the camp before facing Leeds last weekend.

Millwall signed Japhet Tanganga to help strengthen their defence as they try to turn around their fortunes. They’ve lost their last three in all comps and linger in 18th, eight points clear of danger.

For my player pick, I’m going for Liam Lindsay to be fed to the Lions. The Preston defender has eight cautions this season – the joint-most with Brad Potts for the Lilywhites.

The Scot has walked a disciplinary tightrope in recent games, seeing a card in five of his last eight league appearances. That’s plenty to catch the eye, especially when priced at 4.33 on Bet365.

Interestingly, he’s seen yellow in three of his eight league games against Millwall, including two in his last three. Is that a hint he struggles against this opposition?

A few opposition centre-backs have been carded against Millwall in recent weeks, including Stoke’s Michael Rose and QPR’s Jimmy Dunne in those Christmas fixtures.

Preston have seen plenty of cards in recent games: five v Leeds on Boxing Day, four v Sheff Wed and six against Leeds last weekend. Plenty of opportunity for Lindsay, who was booked in two of those.

Given Lindsay’s record is one that stands out, it’s worth backing him to see a card from John Busby. The referee’s sole Preston game this season saw two cards – both to Lilywhites players – Lindsay and Brad Potts.

• Selection: Liam Lindsay to be Booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 4.33
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

QPR vs Huddersfield: A rare look at Unders

England, Championship, Sunday, January 28th, 15:00 (UK)

There’s only one Championship game left to talk about, and there’s plenty to play for at Loftus Road when QPR host Huddersfield. The R’s sit in the final relegation place but the Terriers are only a place and three points ahead of them.

QPR ended a seven-game winless run in the league last weekend, beating Millwall 2-0 to help their claims for safety. But the pressure is on Huddersfield and Darren Moore after just one win in 10 that saw the owner take to X/Twitter to criticise recent performances and results.

High-stakes games, you would say, tend to see plenty of cards. But I’m leaning against them here with this being a game to buck the trend.

QPR average 2.1 cards per home game, while Huddersfield average 1.8 per away game, the second-lowest figure. Based on those numbers alone, I’d be happy to go low on cards.

The only issue was the referee appointment, Stephen Martin. The official does average 5.2 cards per 90 this season, one of the higher numbers among the Select Group 2 officials.

Despite his record, there’s something to be said for taking unders in this one.

Huddersfield have only picked up 3+ cards six times in 28 league games, which isn’t many given their predicament. And Moore’s side only rank 15th for fouls committed.

Looking at their recent games, the Terriers haven’t picked up three or more cards in any of their last 11 in the league. This bet has gone on to win in nine of those, with Blackburn and Plymouth both picking up four against them.

Their hosts have seen 3+ cards 10 times overall this season in the Championship. But at home, it has occurred in just five in 14 games. Filtering that to more recent games at Loftus Road, they’ve only seen three or more in one of eight.

The last two meetings between the sides have both resulted in four match cards (40 booking points), with each team picking up two. A repeat would be ideal here, given both sets of numbers look on the low side with the lines that have been set.

• Selection: Under 3 Cards for Each Team (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: bet365
• Bookmaker: 2.25
• Stake: 10/10

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