The Cards Column Tips: MD26 Player Cards, Team Bookings and Referee Data

Fresh from a clean sweep, Matt Kirby is back with his favourite cards and booking tips from this weekend’s Premier League and Football League action.

The EFL Cup final doesn’t fall into the remit for this column, but it’s Chris Kavanagh in charge of Chelsea vs Liverpool at Wembley. Kavanagh has shown 4+ cards in 11 of his 17 league middles, showing two cards to each team in six of those.

• Middlesbrough vs Plymouth: Over 2.5 Plymouth cards
• Arsenal vs Burnley: Dan Burn To Be Booked
• Blackpool vs Bolton: 30+ Blackpool booking points

Odds via bet365 and Skybet as at 22:00, February 22nd. Odds may now differ.

The Data from the Premier League and the Championship: Team Bookings and Referee Data

After his Premier League debut last weekend where he showed seven cards, Lewis Smith is back in the top-flight. He will take charge of Oliver Glasner’s first game in charge of Crystal Palace. Meanwhile, Paul Tierney oversees Arsenal vs Newcastle in the 20:00 kick-off on Saturday.

Select Group 1 ref Craig Pawson is assigned to officiate the big clash in the Championship. It’s second-place Leeds against leaders Leicester at Elland Road on Friday night. National List officials Ben Toner, Sunny Gill and Thomas Kirk will be participating in additional trial games in the second tier.

The Data from League One and League Two: Team Bookings and Referee Data

Bobby Madley returns to action with a League One assignment at Oakwell between Barnsley and Derby. Fellow SG1 colleague, Josh Smith, has a big Lancashire clash as Blackpool entertain Bolton at Bloomfield Road. Smith showed seven cards at Fratton Park last weekend.

Watch out Exeter and Fleetwood! They have Sam Purkiss in charge, after the arbiter showed two red cards in MK Dons’ draw with Wrexham on Tuesday. Meanwhile, there’s a third trial game for Dale Baines as he vies for promotion to the National List for next season.

Middlesbrough vs Plymouth: Pilgrims to take no-nonsense

England, Championship, Saturday, February 24th, 15:00 (UK)

After falling to another defeat in midweek, things are turning a bit turbulent on the south coast. Plymouth haven’t won in their last five in all comps, albeit they’ve lost twice to Leeds in the League and Cup, as well as to play-off hunting West Brom on Tuesday.

The Pilgrims have the long trek to Middlesbrough to contend with on Saturday, a team who beat leaders Leicester last weekend. Is 10 points too big a gap to bridge even in the Championship for Boro’s play-off bid?

My idea of a punt in this one is to take Plymouth to get over 2.5 cards at 2.00 on Bet365. It’s the same price for 30+ booking points on Sky Bet for those who’d prefer to go there.

Ian Foster’s side have picked up 3+ cards in eight of their last 11 away league games, including four at Huddersfield, three at Swansea and five on their last road trip to Sunderland.

Overall, this season, they’ve picked up 43 yellows in their 16 away games – averaging 2.69 per 90, which has increased as the season has gone on.

National List referee Sunny Gill takes charge. He looks in line for promotion to the Select Group 2 list next season, and he’s already done one league game involving the Pilgrims this term. He showed three cards in their game at Leicester, with all three going to Plymouth players.

Rotherham and Sunderland have visited the Riverside recently and picked up three cards to land this angle. So, I’m hoping Plymouth can follow suit. If they can take the lead and employ the dark arts, we could be on to something.

• Selection: Over 2.5 Plymouth cards (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Dan Burn To Be Booked: A mismatch on paper

England, Premier League, Saturday, February 24th, 20:00 (UK)

The Premier League match kicks off at 20:00 on Saturday night, so I’m hoping for some fireworks at the Emirates. Title contenders Arsenal will aim to bounce back from their late defeat in Porto when they host Newcastle.

Sometimes, you look at a game and work out the match-ups that could play out and there’s one that is fairly obvious and it screams out.

Bukayo Saka vs Dan Burn could well be a big mismatch if Eddie Howe continues to put his trust behind the Blyth-born left-back. The Newcastle gaffer could go with Tino Livramento – and he’s a bigger price to see yellow!

Burn is slow and has a wide-arc turning circle, so you wouldn’t be surprised to see Saka running past the defender quite often.

The 31-year-old defender has only seen yellow three times in the top flight this term, and he averages a foul per 90, which could be the cynical one we need.

Saka is a magnet for fouls, winning 48 already this season – only Bruno Guimaraes and Jordan Ayew (73) have won more. With Saka in flying form in recent weeks, expect him to skip past Burn for fun throughout.

Paul Tierney has the whistle for this contest. It’s his first Newcastle game since he oversaw their win at Nottingham Forest last March. The Magpies only picked up one card in that game, but it went to Burn. Hopefully, Tierney keeps a close eye on the left-back and gives him little rope for persistent fouling.

Given Saka’s direct nature, pace and agility, he could prove too much of a handful for a bloke who often looks like he’s running in treacle. The 4.33 looks generous enough with Bet365.

• Selection: Dan Burn to be booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 4.33
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Blackpool vs Bolton: Oh, I do like cards beside the seaside

England, League One, Saturday, February 24th, 15:00 (UK)

It’s a tricky slate across the EFL this weekend, so I have to dip my toe into League One for a Lancashire derby. I just hope tensions run high at Bloomfield Road.

Bolton are narrowly missing out on an automatic promotion spot due to goal difference. Blackpool still have ground to make up on those in the play-off places, so they cannot afford many more slip-ups between now and May.

It’s the Tangerines lines that appeal on Sky Bet in their booking points markets. People might look and see that Blackpool only average 1.47 yellow cards per home game. However, they’ve upped their card counts since the turn of the year.

Since the start of 2024, Neil Critchley’s side have picked up booking points totals of 30, 40, 30, 10, 30, 30, 30 & 40. So, in eight league games this calendar year, this bet has won seven times. Some could say they’re knuckling down to make sure they get that play-off spot.

With Blackpool getting stuck in and this being a derby that saw six cards in the reverse, I’m happy to get involved.

What makes it more appealing is the appointment of Select Group 2 referee, Josh Smith. He featured in last week’s column as he dished out seven cards in this league as Portsmouth beat Reading.

Smith has already played a Bolton game this season. That was at home to promotion rivals Stevenage, where he brandished his yellow six times, giving both teams 30+ booking points.

Both sides rank in the top 10 for fouls drawn, which will hopefully see Smith in the thick of the action to deal with drama and stop things from boiling over.

Given Smith’s isn’t the card-shy type and Blackpool increased card output in 2024, I’ll take their 30+ booking points line at 2.25. I will also say that I don’t mind the 20+ booking points each team lines at 1.80 – it’s just a bit too short to tip or catch my eye. I like a bit more meat on the bones, which this Blackpool punt gives us.

• Selection: 30+ Blackpool booking points (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.25
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 10/10

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