The Cards Column Tips: MD24 Player Cards, Team Bookings and Referee Data

With plenty of Premier League and Football League action this weekend, Matt Kirby brings you the latest referee data, as well as his cards and bookings tips.

If a Podcast or Youtube video is more your thing, why not check out our new bettingexpert Football Podcast here, where Dan Jenkins and Sam Ingram provide their most-fancied selections ahead of the weekend.

• QPR vs Norwich: Over 4.5 Cards
• Aston Villa vs Man Utd: Luke Shaw To Be Booked
• Cardiff vs Preston: 20+ Preston Booking Points & Preston Most Booking Points

Odds via bet365 and Skybet as of 21:00, February 8th. Odds may now differ.

The Data from the Premier League and the Championship: Team Bookings and Referee Data

John Brooks gets things underway in the Premier League when Man City host Everton. Darren England has a rare outing in the top flight, while there’s a good-looking game for Sam Barrott between Spurs and Brighton.

Select Group 1 official David Coote finds himself with a tasty Championship clash between Ipswich and West Brom – both are in the promotion and the play-off picture. Andy Madley also drops into the Championship for a Yorkshire derby between Leeds and Rotherham.

The Data from League One and League Two: Team Bookings and Referee Data

Jeremy Simpson continues his comeback in Northampton’s home game with Bolton. His return last weekend saw 13 cards worth 135 booking points. While fellow Select Group 2 ref James Bell returns to action at Pride Park, where Derby host Shrewsbury.

Daniel Middleton dished out 105 booking points last weekend, so might be one to watch in a battle of relegation rivals Lincoln and Fleetwood in League One. While there are games for card-happy trio Thomas Parsons, Scott Simpson and Lee Swabey.

QPR vs Norwich: Ben to set the Tone(r)

England, Championship, Saturday, February 10th, 15:00 (UK)

Let’s start at Loftus Road where QPR and Norwich have different aims as we head into the backend of the season.

Whilst output has improved under Marti Cifuentes, the R’s remain in peril as they look to avoid falling through the Championship trapdoor. Meanwhile, the Canaries are a point outside the play-offs after three wins in four.

There are quite a lot of lines in the Championship that appealed this week, but this one feels something of a standout for several reasons.

Firstly, the referee. Ben Toner is averaging 5.2 cards per game this season, and could well earn promotion to the Select Group 2 list come the end of the campaign.

The Lancastrian whistler has taken charge of 18 league games this term, showing five or more cards in 12 of those – a 67% strike rate. That’s enough of a base to build this angle on.

Fans at Loftus Road have seen plenty of cards dished out by referees. Eleven of QPR’s 15 home games have seen at least five cards, with the last six seeing card totals of 7, 7, 7, 6, 2 & 7. We can all agree that’s pretty high!

Norwich had Borja Sainz sent off on Boxing Day at West Brom and since then their league games have produced 10, 5, 6, 3, 3 & 6 cards. Plus, there have been three reds in their last seven (for either side), so one more here would help the count in our favour.

The cherry on top of the cake seems to be some of their recent meetings that hint there’s no love lost. The last five games between the sides have produced 9, 1, 4, 7 & 8 cards. So, those five average 5.8 cards per 90, which is what we’re hoping for with this line.

November’s clash at Carrow Road saw eight cards, with a four each split. Interestingly, there was only one card by the 70th minute, with seven coming in the final 20.

There’s a lot to like for cards coming in this game, the two each price at 11/10 did also look good. But I’m playing this with a straight bat by expecting there to be 5+ cards at a tempting 2.00.

• Selection: Over 4.5 Cards (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Luke Shaw To Be Booked: Take a Luke at Shaw

England, Premier League, Sunday, February 11th, 16:30 (UK)

Super Sunday takes us to Villa Park for Man Utd’s visit to Aston Villa, with both sides in the hunt for a top-four spot.

When it comes to Aston Villa home games, there’s a pattern that I like to follow, which could see a certain individual see a card in this one. The pattern: opposition left-backs against Leon Bailey.

They tend to be in the thick of the action with some incredible tackle and foul numbers. All that can catch the attention of the officials, so here’s the compelling evidence of recent left-backs visiting Villa Park:

• Newcastle’s Dan Burn: 5 tackles & 1 foul
• Burnley’s Charlie Taylor: 4 tackles & 1 foul – booked
• Sheffield Utd’s Yasser Larouci: 7 tackles & 1 foul in 58 mins – booked
• Arsenal’s Oleksandr Zinchenko: 6 tackles & 1 foul – booked
• Man City’s Josko Gvardiol: 8 tackles & 2 fouls

If you go further, Villa’s home game against Fulham saw the Cottagers left-back Antonee Robinson only face Bailey for 30 minutes. In that game, the American won one tackle, committed three fouls and was booked.

Now, Shaw committed three fouls against West Ham last weekend. And against the same opponents at London Stadium, he gave away four more fouls and saw yellow. In fact, he’s been booked in three of his last four league appearances.

It helps that we’ve also got a decent referee in Rob Jones. He’s shown 4+ cards in 80% of his league games this season. Plus, he showed 2+ to players of the away team in 14 of his 15 (93%), so do expect a few United cards.

With all the evidence, there’s a lot to like about Shaw’s profile and the data of opposing left-backs. Shaw is 3.25 for a card with Sky Bet, which is the way to go.

• Selection: Luke Shaw to be Booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 3.25
• Bookmaker: SkyBet
• Stake: 10/10

Cardiff vs Preston: Lilywhites no shrinking violets

England, Championship, Saturday, February 10th, 15:00 (UK)

There were a few other games in the Championship that caught my eye from a cards perspective this weekend. But it’s this game in south Wales that sees one of my strongest fancies.

Take Preston to pick up 20+ booking points and most booking points in the match using the Sky Bet Bet Builder tool. It comes out at 1.91.

Ryan Lowe’s side average 2.5 cards per game in the Championship this season, with only Stoke and Southampton averaging more. Cardiff, in contrast, average 1.7 per 90, putting them in 21st in the card charts.

In fact, the Bluebirds pick up even fewer cards at home – that average drops to 1.1, which is the lowest figure in games on their own patch in the second tier.

You look at the Lilywhites and see that they’ve picked up 20+ booking points in 22 of their 30 league games, including in 10 of their last 13 on the road.

Take that further and they’ve picked up the most booking points in 12 away games this season, which highlights how they set-up and their physicality. That’s backed up by the fact they sit third for fouls per game (12.7). Meanwhile, Cardiff are 23rd on that list at 9.3.

There’s a lot to like about Preston picking up cards and, therefore, the most booking points. You just look at Cardiff and notice that they’ve seen either zero or one card in nine of 13 home games, So, if this goes as expected with the visitors seeing 2+ cards, then the job should really be done.

In their meeting here last season, Preston picked up 20 booking points – the only two cards of the game to land this bet. In November, the Lilywhites picked up 65 booking points to see this angle cop once again.

Given the lack of Cardiff cards in their home games along with Preston being one of the higher-card sides, it just looks too enticing an angle to ignore.

• Selection: 20+ Preston Booking Points & Preston Most Booking Points (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: SkyBet
• Stake: 10/10

SAFER GAMBLING

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