The Cards Column Tips: MD21 Player Cards, Team Bookings and Referee Data

We’ve got a full a full EFL fixture list on our hand, while the Premier League is split for the winter ‘break’.

Fresh from two winners in League One last weekend, Matt Kirby returns with his card and booking tips in the Cards Column.

• West Brom vs Blackburn: 30+ Blackburn Booking Points
• Newcastle vs Man City: Rodri To Be Booked
• Huddersfield vs Plymouth: 20+ Plymouth Booking Points & Plymouth Most Booking Points

Odds via bet365 and Skybet as of 16:30, January 11th. Odds may now differ.

The Data from the Premier League and the Championship: Team Bookings and Referee Data

There are just five Premier League games this weekend, with Chris Kavanagh and John Brooks taking charge of the headline matches at St. James’ Park and Old Trafford.

Select Group 1 refs Darren England and Simon Hooper both have TV games in the Championship, with England in charge of a Midlands derby between Coventry and Leicester. While Sam Allison oversees Ipswich’s home game with Sunderland.

The Data from League One and League Two: Team Bookings and Referee Data

There are games for Scott Simpson (6.2 cards per game) and Seb Stockbridge (5.9 cards per game) in League Two – as you can see from those averages, they don’t shirk the issue. Thomas Bramall – a Select Group 1 official – finds himself at Bloomfield Road.

The Monday Night Football comes from Pride Park as Burton make the short trip to Derby. Ben Toner (5.4 cards per game) takes charge of that. He’s recently had a couple of Championship trial games.

West Brom vs Blackburn: Rovers cards in thorny affair

England, Championship, Saturday, January 13th, 15:00 (UK)

West Brom will look to strengthen their play-off credentials when out-of-form Blackburn visit The Hawthorns.

Rovers have only won one of their last eight in the Championship, a run that’s seen six defeats and one draw. Their lack of form has also seen them lose their discipline in recent weeks, which leads me to my first play.

Over 2 Blackburn cards is 1.83 on Bet365, but we can get 30+ Blackburn booking points at 2.00 with Sky Bet. We can have a combination of things to land this bet, from three yellows (30bp), a straight red (25bp) or a player dismissed for a second booking (35bp).

Jon Dahl Tomasson’s side ranks fourth in the Championship for cautions at 2.4 per game and they’ve seen the joint-most reds (4). So, let’s take a look at Rovers’ last three away games:

• A 4-0 defeat at Southampton saw them collect 65 booking points
• A 3-0 defeat at Huddersfield saw them collect 40 booking points
• A 3-2 loss at Hull saw them collect 75 booking points

That shows plenty of cards as heads have dropped as the goals have flown in against them. Plus, when they hosted West Brom on the opening weekend, they picked up 40 booking points.

Defender Hayden Carter is on nine for the season, so another here would see him incur a two-match ban. While recent defensive midfielders against West Brom have found themselves in hot water, so Adam Wharton and Sondre Tronstad could enter the referee’s notebook.

Now to the referee, Stephen Martin. He’s caught the eye over the last few months, showing plenty of cards. The whistler averages 5.7 per 90 this season, which is more than any other Select Group 2 official.

Martin has taken charge of one West Brom game this season. That saw nine yellows (90bp), with seven of those (70bp) going to the visitors, who were Plymouth.

While his two Blackburn games have seen him dish out 11 yellows in total, six going to Rovers players.

On top of that, Martin’s recent league games have seen booking points totals of 90, 40, 80, 30, 80, 30, 50 & 105, which highlights he’s a frequent issuer of his yellow card. In seven of his last nine games, the away side has seen 30+ booking points, perfect for what we want!

• Selection: 30+ Blackburn Booking Points (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 10/10

Rodri To Be Booked: The master of the dark arts

England, Premier League, Saturday, January 13th, 17:30 (UK)

This fixture looks like a cracker on paper. But Man City toyed with Newcastle earlier in the season. So, the Magpies will be out for revenge, and they’ll be full of confidence after their Tyne-Wear derby success.

Eddie Howe is starting to see a return to fitness of several key players, especially in attacking areas, which should see them go after City. The Sky Blues have looked vulnerable at times this season, so I’m going for the masters of the dark arts as my player pick.

Rodri is quoted at 4.00 with Bet365 and Sky Bet. Both look generous for what we know the Spaniard to be capable of. Usually a case of where we’re scratching our heads asking ‘how did he get away with that?’

I was half-expecting to see Rodri shorter than this, given the magnitude of the game and there being a chance the St. James’ Park crowd will be vocal for any transgressions against their players.

Now, in the 27-year-old we have the player within the Man City ranks who leads the way for tackles, fouls and yellow cards. All it takes is one mistimed tackle, or one of his cynical fouls, to see him collect his seventh caution of the season.

Newcastle’s last league game was a fiery one with eight cards. That game saw Liverpool CM Wataru Endo booked. He’s followed Forest’s Ibrahim Sangare, Luton’s Ross Barkley and Fulham’s Joao Palhinha as central midfielders all cautioned against the Magpies over the last few weeks.

So, hopefully, Chris Kavanagh will be taking Rodri’s name. The arbiter took charge of these sides in the EFL Cup earlier in the season. City made changes that night, but midfielder Kalvin Phillips was booked. So, those in the engine room could find themselves in trouble once more.

Plus, Kavanagh has been willing to show more cards in recent weeks. There were seven when he oversaw Liverpool v Arsenal, while he dished out three to each side when Newcastle lost here to Nottingham Forest on Boxing Day.

Given that Rodri is Man City’s top performer across a few key metrics and a few CMs have been booked against Newcastle in recent weeks, the price looks too good to turn your nose up at this weekend.

• Selection: Rodri to be booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 4.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Huddersfield vs Plymouth: Pilgrims to plunder plenty of cards

England, Championship, Saturday, January 13th, 15:00 (UK)

Two sides hovering just above the Championship relegation zone collide at John Smith’s Stadium. Huddersfield sit just three points above the drop, with Plymouth seven points clear but sliding – and they’ve lost a few key players to go with the departure of Steven Schumacher.

Neither of these sides has been too prolific from a cards perspective this season. But there’s an angle that I’ve spotted I’m willing to take.

Take Plymouth 20+ booking points along with the Pilgrims to get the most booking points using the Sky Bet bet builder to get a 1.91 punt.

Simply put, Plymouth have seen 20+ booking points in eight of their last nine away games, including 70 at West Brom, 55 at QPR and 20 at Southampton last time out.

After a slow start on the cards front, the Pilgrims are starting to get a bit more physical, as the demands to make sure they stay in the division become clear.

They average 2.1 cards per game for the season. But filter that to just away games only, it rises to 2.4 cards per 90, which should equate to the 20+ booking points we need.

And if you compare those averages with Huddersfield, it’s easy to understand why we should expect the visitors to pick up the most booking points.

Plymouth’s 2.4 cards per away game is one card more than the Terriers receive in home games (1.4). So, this can follow a similar pattern.

Five of the last seven visitors to Huddersfield have picked up the most booking points, with each side seeing 20+. Meanwhile Plymouth have seen more booking points than their opponents in seven of their last nine away games, which completes the picture.

Tom Nield is the man in the middle. He’s taken charge of 12 league games in the EFL season – 67% of those have seen the away side collect 20+ booking points. While his last two games have finished with match bp counts of 10-20 and 20-40, which would see this bet land.

• Selection: 20+ Plymouth Booking Points & Plymouth Most Booking Points (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 10/10

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