The Cards Column Tips: Some juice in Man City bookings

Matt Kirby fired in two winners last weekend, including a 4.00 player pick after Milos Kerkez saw yellow in the Monday Night Football.

Our cards and bookings expert is back to look ahead to the action across the divisions, pointing out notable stats and his three favourite bets, which come from the Premier League and Championship.

• Man City vs Fulham: Over 1.5 Man City cards
• Sheffield Utd vs Luton: Vinicius Souza To Be Booked
• Burnley vs Preston: Each team to have 1 or more cards in each half

Odds via bet365 as of 17:00, October 3rd. Odds may now differ.

Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: This week’s refs to note

The football kicks off on Friday night when Select Group 1 referee Tim Robinson oversees Sunderland v Leeds. He’s dished out 16 yellows in his last two games across league and cup!

Craig Pawson is back in the top flight as Newcastle visit Everton – Pawson showed a red card in the Championship last weekend. While Rob Jones has Man Utd’s trip to Aston Villa, as Erik ten Hag clings to his job.

There’s another Lancashire derby in the Championship – they’ve been spicy so far, so good luck to Gavin Ward for Burnley v Preston. John Brooks takes charge as two sides relegated last season meet at Bramall Lane.

Alan Young’s first EFL game back saw him produce six yellows, which makes Burton and Bristol Rovers one to note. At the other end of the scale is Ben Speedie, who is yet to produce 4+ cards in any of his six league games! 

In League Two, Ed Duckworth has Grimsby v Doncaster after showing 10 yellows in his last outing. Meanwhile, Monday’s game sees Bradford host Newport. Thomas Kirk has the whistle – he hasn’t been afraid to dish out the cards, averaging 5.6 per game. 

As ever, to see the graphs and get further insight from Matt, check out his Twitter @m_kirby95.

Man City vs Fulham: Cynical City to halt Cottagers’ counters 

England, Premier League, Saturday, October 5th, 15:00 (UK)

I’ll continue to bang the drum with my belief that there is generally some juice in backing the ‘bigger’ sides to pick up cards. So, I’ll put my money where my mouth is and take Man City to get over 1.5 cards at 1.91 with bet365 as this week’s opening angle.

This bet would have paid out in five of City’s six Premier League games, with the exception being their opening weekend win at Chelsea. 

Since then, Pep Guardiola’s side have collected 2, 2, 3, 3, & 4 cards. Which can be narrowed down to their home games: 

• 2 v Ipswich
• 3 v Brentford
• 3 v Arsenal

As we know, City are likely to dominate possession, but they can be hit in that transition phase, with the cynical fouls producing cards. Something that we can look towards Emile Smith Rowe, Adama Traore and Alex Iwobi to do.

What also helps is the extra scrutiny on time wasting and delaying the restart in recent weeks.

When you look at Fulham’s record, they’ve drawn 2+ cards from five of their six opponents, including all three of their hosts when they’ve been on the road.

There’s also a lot to like about their recent meetings. In the last four league clashes, there have been 18 yellows & 2 reds, with the Sky Blues picking up 2+ cards in three. 

The final point to this one is referee Peter Bankes has shown 6, 6 & 5 cards in three league games. The home side has seen 2+ in each of that trio. Plus, he showed seven yellows in a League Cup tie in August for good measure!

If you agree with the same logic, bet365 have Arsenal over 1.5 cards at 2.10 as well. The Gunners have picked up 2+ cards in each top-flight game so far!

• Selection: Over 1.5 Man City cards (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Vinicius Souza To Be Booked: An extra-long break for Souza? 

England, Championship, Saturday, October 5th, 15:00 (UK)

When it comes to the player pick, I’m looking out for a mix of match-ups, price and card/foul numbers. 

Here’s a player with four yellows in eight games and on the brink of a one-match ban for picking up five. That’s Sheffield Utd’s Vinicius Souza, who could have an extra-long international break if he so wishes.

The Brazilian midfielder has given away some huge foul numbers this season: 2, 5, 1, 3, 0, 2, 3 & 5. That latter was in Wednesday’s 1-0 win over Swansea, where he escaped sanction. Overall, his 21 fouls see him leading the way within the Sheff Utd ranks.

If the Blades captain puts him about as much as that, he’ll draw the eye of John Brooks, who’s averaging six cards in his two league games. The whistler did a Championship the other week and showed eight yellows (four each), so is certainly one to note at this level.

Going through Luton’s recent matches sees plenty of central midfielders receive yellows. A sample of those includes Oxford’s Idris El Mizouni, Plymouth’s Adam Randell, Sheffield Wednesday’s Svante Ingelsson, Millwall’s Casper De Norre and QPR’s Sam Field – and that’s just in their last five games.

On that evidence, Souza will be in the firing line during this game. So, a player with four in eight and a card-happy ref priced at 4.5 looks too good to ignore. 

• Selection: Vinicius Souza to be booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 4.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Burnley vs Preston: A Lancashire derby with more bite?

England, Championship, Saturday, October 5th, 12:30 (UK)

Burnley v Blackburn. Preston v Blackburn. Two north west derbies that have produced plenty of drama and ill-discipline. So, I will have to wrap up at Turf Moor for Preston’s visit to Burnley. 

Under the WhatOdds Paddy section on Paddy Power, you’ll find each team to have 1 or more cards in each half at 4.33, which is where I’ll take aim.

Earlier in the season, I pointed out how Burnley had picked up cards in each half. Now, that’s something that’s happened in six of their eight league games. And a side with Hannibal in their starting XI is always good for an early card!

Preston are no shrinking violets either, picking up a card in each half in seven of their eight league games. On that basis alone, we could well be on the right track here. 

What also drew my eye was that these two are first and second in the foul charts in the Championship – Burnley (15.6) and Preston (15.3). That’s two sides who give their opponents a good kicking, which is always good to see.

And typically, both rank high up in the card charts. No side has seen more yellows than Preston’s 26, with Burnley on 21. While the Lilywhites have had two reds to the Clarets one.

The powers that be have appointed Gavin Ward to the game. Ward has had a quietish start to the season, averaging 4.5 cards per game. However, there’s a sense that when a game becomes heated he starts to struggle. So, with local tensions and hopefully some animosity, things could spill over as the other two Lancashire derbies already have this season. 

Ward did two Preston games last season. Those saw 10 cards, with seven of those going to Lilywhites’ players. 

Overall, this has the makings of another tasty clash. Two sides who pick up the cards and give away free kicks, to go with a referee who could easily lose control. I wouldn’t be shocked to see some fancy card splits in this for those who want something of a longshot, so over two each at 4.5 and over three each at 15.0 can’t be discounted. 

• Selection: Each team to have 1 or more cards in each half
• Best Odds: 4.33
• Bookmaker: Paddy Power 
• Stake: 5/10

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