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Boxing The Cards Column Tips: The cards continue to flow
If you’re looking for this weekend’s referee appointments and data, you’re in the right place! Let Matt Kirby guide you through his three fancies across the Premier League, Championship and League Two.
After last weekend saw games across the top-four tiers average 5.4 cards, will it be more of the same over the next few days?
For the charts, please give Matt a follow on Twitter/X. His handle is @m_kirby95. You’ll also find the midweek referee data for the upcoming Champions League and EFL games.
- Carlisle vs Grimsby: 30+ Grimsby booking points
- Bournemouth vs Southampton: Milos Kerkez To Be Booked
- Derby vs Norwich: Over 3.5 cards
Odds via bet365 and Skybet as of 16:30, September 26th. Odds may now differ.
Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: The refs to note this weekend!
Jarred Gillett gets the Premier League action underway on Saturday at leaders Man City visit Newcastle. The Aussie arbiter has shown 2+ cards to each team in his three matches. Peter Bankes showed six yellows last weekend and has what I’ll call the ‘Poacher’s derby’ as Chelsea host feeder club Brighton.
SG1 referees Craig Pawson and Darren Bond find themselves in the Championship. Andrew Kitchen was card shy last season (3.3pg), but in four matches this term, he’s averaging 5.8 per game. He’s in charge of Sunday’s clash between Swansea and Bristol City.
In League One, Thomas Kirk is at St. Andrew’s for Peterborough’s visit to Birmingham. Kirk averages six cards per game so far. Another card-happy official is Seb Stockbridge. He’s in League Two for Mike Williamson’s first Carlisle home game, where they welcome Grimsby.
Other bits of interest are a return for everyone’s favourite cardshark Alan Young – he’s got Newport v Crewe. There’s an EFL debut for James Westgate at Morecambe, while Matthew Russell takes charge of his second game of league football.
Carlisle vs Grimsby: Take cards with a strict ref
England, League Two, Saturday, September 28th, 15:00 (UK)
Let’s drop in on Brunton Park to start this week, where Mike Williamson takes charge of his first Carlisle home game. The new boss enjoyed success at Swindon last weekend as he tries to drag the Cumbrian side up the table.
The visit of Grimsby catches the eye for two reasons:
- The Mariners have collected 18 yellows and one red this season in the league – only Bradford and Accrington have more (20 yellows).
- Seb Stockbridge – one of the strictest referees on the National List – has been appointed to the game.
Starting with David Artell’s side, they’ve collected booking points of 30, 10, 10, 40, 30, 30 & 65 across their League Two games. That’s an average of 30.7 per outing, which falls right on the line I’m willing to take at 2.10 with Sky Bet.
If you’d taken this in their seven games so far, it’s paid out five times, including twice on the road. We also are aided by the fact that Grimsby rank sixth for fouls in the division (12.9), which includes 14 at Chesterfield, 13 at Notts County and 17 at home to Bradford.
Those numbers show that they do commit their fair share of fouls. Although, back in the 2022/23 season, their last meeting here saw Grimsby commit 17 fouls – hopefully a sign of things to come!
The next part of this is a very card-happy referee. The silver fox Seb Stockbridge has handed out 36 yellows and one red in seven games in all comps. To show how he likes his cards, he gave seven in a League Cup tie between Salford and Doncaster last month.
When you narrow it down to his league games, he’s produced 6, 6, 5 (1), 4 and 6 yellows – the red in brackets went to Huddersfield’s Danny Ward.
Straight away those numbers make you take note when you see his name next to a game. And going a step further, from those card counts, the away side has seen 2, 3, 5, 3 and 2.
I couldn’t see Stockbridge take charge of a Grimsby game last season. However, according to Transfermarkt, the whistler has overseen the Mariners 25 times in his career, issuing 46 yellows and two reds to their players. Only has he done more games involving Mansfield and Shrewsbury!
His splits are fairly even, so I couldn’t put you off cards or booking points for each team, with Carlisle picking up three under Williamson last weekend. But my preference is for the Grimsby line given their recent strong numbers in both cards and fouls.
If you’re new to booking points, you get 10 for a yellow, 25 for a straight red and 35 for a second bookable offence.
- Selection: 30+ Grimsby booking points (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.10
- Bookmaker: Sky Bet
- Stake: 5/10
Milos Kerkez To Be Booked: The dribbling Dibling poses a threat
England, Premier League, Monday, September 30th, 20:00 (UK)
Monday Night Football takes us to the south coast for a Premier League clash, which isn’t a derby™, well depending on who you ask!
Southampton were minutes away from their first league win of the season last weekend, only for Ipswich’s Sam Morsy to break their hearts with a last-minute equaliser.
It’s the Saints’ goalscorer from last weekend, Tyler Dibling, who can be a thorn in Bournemouth’s side in front of the Sky cameras.
The youthful winger was handed his top-flight debut on the opening weekend. Handed 20 minutes from off the bench, he was fouled three times, which marked him down as a foul magnet and potential card drawer.
Toon left-back Lewis Hall was booked in that game. But that game in the opening five minutes for a foul on Yukinari Sugawara, which makes the Japanese right-back a useful foil for Dibling’s scheming.
More recently, Russell Martin has handed Dibling starts against Man Utd and Ipswich. In both games, the 18-year-old drew four fouls showing he can take a kicking with his direct, positive play.
Across those two games, Man Utd’s Diogo Dalot (4) and Ipswich’s Leif Davis (2) have committed six fouls in games against the Saints, yet have escaped sanction.
With high foul numbers from left-backs against Southampton, that leads me to his opponent in this clash, Milos Kerkez.
The Hungarian defender has been booked once in the Premier League this season and averages 1.2 fouls per game. He’s committed at least one foul in each game so far, including two at Liverpool last weekend.
Kerkez is part of this Bournemouth team that has seen the joint-third most yellows (16) in the top flight. Plus, the Cherries also rank fifth for fouls (13.4).
If you like the player prop markets, then Kerkez to commit over 1.5 fouls is 2.63 with bet365. While Dibling to win 3+ fouls is 2.38 with Sky Bet.
One of England’s top officials is in charge of this one. Michael Oliver is averaging 5.6 yellows in his five Premier League games, so hasn’t been card-shy. And this will be his second Bournemouth game – his first saw four yellows as the Cherries drew at Nottingham Forest.
Want to guess who Oliver booked? You’ve probably worked it out, but Kerkez saw yellow for a foul on Anthony Elanga at the start of the second half.
There’s enough to suggest Dibling, with Sugawara behind, can pose a threat down Bournemouth’s left. So, I’ll take the 4.00 for a Kerkez card.
- Selection: Milos Kerkez to be booked
- Best Odds: 4.00
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 5/10
Derby vs Norwich: Drawn in by a low line
England, Championship, Saturday, September 28th, 12:30 (UK)
If you read last week’s piece, you’re probably thinking – not Norwich again!? You’d be right in saying that, but their home game against Watford last Saturday wasn’t helped by a low foul count (14) despite the nature of the two teams and the referee being forced off at half-time with an injury.
So, following that, I see bet365 opened this game up with a card line set at 3.5. It’s hard not to see it going over at 1.80 given the two sides who meet at Pride Park on Saturday lunchtime.
Derby’s Championship games this season have seen 4, 4, 5, 1, 4 & 5 cards. So, that’s five of six which have seen at least four cards.
And from the match totals, Rams players have received 3, 3, 3, 1, 1 & 2 of the cards, which highlights they see a fair share. What’s more, they average 13.3 fouls per home game so far.
As you know by now, I like the look of cards in Norwich games with them producing 4, 5, 7, 7, 5 & 3. Plus, there tends to be plenty of fouls in Canaries games: 18, 24, 21, 21, 28 & 14 – last week’s Watford clash was the letdown.
There is a chance that Johannes Hoff Thorup has finally got this Norwich side to click after that win over Watford. But that style of playing out from the back can lead to a few clumsy tackles from opposition players wanting to press and win high turnovers.
And with clumsy comes cards! So, referee Oli Langford will cast his eye over what is and isn’t worthy of a caution. He’s shown 4+ cards in three of his four league games this season – 6, 4, 4 & 3, with splits of 2-4, 2-2,1-3 & 0-3 to suggest he penalises the away side more often.
If that’s the case he’ll please the Pride Park faithful, who’ll be eager to see their team press and snap into a few challenges. But I can see this being a keenly-contested 90 minutes, where Langford has to dish out a few cards.
If you can’t get on with bet365, try Sky Bet. They’ve got 40+ booking points at the same price!
P.S. I did very nearly go for 2+ cards each in Newcastle v Man City. There’s always a bit of juice in card prices involving the Sky Blues and Jarred Gillett being in charge, there could be a fair few cards flying around!
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