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Horse Racing The Cards Column Tips: Honey sweet & Unders with Swans
After both of his match picks won last weekend, Matt Kirby is back to guide you through the card and booking points market across the Premier League and Football League.
Matt’s picked out three bets, including a Championship player pick and a League One booking points market.
- Stevenage vs Reading: 40+ booking points
- Stoke vs Millwall: George Honeyman To Be Booked
- Burnley vs Swansea: Under 3 Burnley cards & under 3 Swansea cards
Odds via bet365 and Skybet as of 22:00, November 7th. Odds may now differ.
Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: Oliver at the Bridge and Hallam’s rapid rise
Michael Oliver has the big Premier League game on Sunday when London rivals Chelsea and Arsenal meet at Stamford Bridge. Sam Barrott has Brighton against Man City, who are without a win in three (all comps). While the Saturday night game at Anfield goes to David Coote.
Farai Hallam’s rapid rise continues as he makes his Championship debut between Norwich and Bristol City. Card-happy James Bell oversees Millwall’s trip to Stoke, while the Steel City derby will be handled by Lewis Smith.
In Leagues One and Two, Thomas Kirk has Friday night’s Yorkshire derby when Rotherham visit Barnsley. Dale Baines and Elliot Bell continue their run of good games. And there’s a third game of the season for Stephen Parkinson – he showed 110 booking points in Newport v Port Vale in September!
For more referee data, make sure to check out Matt’s Twitter – @m_kirby95.
Stevenage vs Reading: Am I reading too much into the data?
England, League One, Saturday, November 9th, 15:00 (UK)
Looking at the markets across the Premier League and Championship on Bet365 shows the current rising trend of cards. Most lines are set on the higher side, which is becoming the expectancy given the stricter standards enforced so far this season.
Instead of trying to beat one of those, I’ll have a crack at this low-looking line in League One, when Stevenage welcome Reading to the Lamex.
Both sides sealed their place in the FA Cup second round last weekend, although Stevenage required penalties to see off non-league Guiseley.
With the focus back on the league, Ruben Selles’ side will be looking to climb into the play-off places, as they look to mount a serious challenge, despite all the off-field issues.
Reading might sit low in the League One card charts but there’s enough for me to believe that there’ll be 40+ booking points in this visit to Stevenage.
The Royals rank joint-18th for yellow cards per away game (2.00), while their hosts sit third for cautions per home game (2.7). If the sides hit those averages, with 10 booking points for a yellow, we should hit the magical 40 mark.
So far this season, 10 of Stevenage’s 12 league games have seen 40+ booking points. That includes all seven of their matches on home turf – they’ve seen 50, 105, 60, 80, 50, 40 & 70.
Third-place Wrexham came to the Lamex and played out a game with 50, while Lincoln and Bolton – who are both in the play-off places – came here and saw totals of 105 and 70.
Again, you might look at Reading’s data throughout the campaign and see just 40+ booking points in seven of their League One games, but my eye was drawn to the 105 totals away to Rotherham. Steve Evans’ current side drew the Royals into a battle, so there’s hope a similar style from the Boro can frustrate and antagonise the visitors into giving away cheap cards.
The additional hope to this angle is that last season’s meetings produced 40 and 65 booking points. Interestingly, the away side collected all the booking points in those games.
And I don’t mind the fact that despite their lack of cards, Reading rank 10th for fouls per game. Stevenage are up in fifth. So, there’s a chance we could see a few kickings.
The final caveat is that referee Craig Hicks is one of the more laidback officials in the Football League. Only two of his six league games have hit this mark, while he teased this line in both of his involvements with Stevenage last season showing three cards in each game – 30 booking points.
Sometimes you have to hope the referee plays balls and wakes up on the wrong side of the bed. If that’s the case, there’s enough in the data, along with a potential clash of styles for this to see at least 40+ booking points at 1.8.
- Selection: 40+ booking points (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.8
- Bookmaker: Sky Bet
- Stake: 8/10
George Honeyman To Be Booked: The sweet taste of Honey
England, Championship, Saturday, November 9th, 12:30 (UK)
When searching for a player pick, I generally look for a player who is well-known for committing fouls and collecting cautions. And a no-nonsense referee always helps matters.
This lunchtime kick-off in the Championship between Stoke and Millwall fits the bill quite nicely. The Lions have crashed into the play-off spots after back-to-back 1-0 wins over Burnley and Leeds, while Stoke have won their last couple, growing under Narcis Pelach.
Team news-wise, there’s a chance Tatsuki Seko starts for the hosts to give them more balance in midfield, as he did against Derby. He was probably lucky to escape without a card for his foul on Ebou Adams in the first half of that game against the Rams, if he does similar here, then James Bell is a referee who’ll clamp down with an iron fist.
Seko, priced at 6.0 with Sky Bet, might be on to consider when the team news comes out an hour before kick-off.
But it’s another central midfielder I’m willing to have onside. That’s Millwall’s George Honeyman. He might be one of the shortest for a card, but there’s good reasons for that.
Honeyman has four cards to his name this season, all of them have come within his last eight Championship appearances. So, he’s now averaging a card every other game. And his record last season saw him booked every 232 or so minutes, so one in three, which is prolific in this aspect.
The 30-year-old has committed at least one foul in 10 of his last 12 league games, including three away at West Brom (booked), two v Plymouth (booked), two v Burnley and two v Leeds (booked). Whenever he seems to commit 2+, he draws the referee’s attention.
You don’t really want to draw the stare of James Bell (shudder). The Select Group 2 ref does reach quite quickly into his pocket and he’s fresh from his six-card haul in Plymouth v Portsmouth on Tuesday night.
Bell is averaging 6.8 cards per 90, showing five or more cards in seven of his eight league middles. And just for good measure, he’s dismissed five players already!
Go back to August when he took charge of Stoke’s home defeat to West Brom. That produced five cards, three to the Baggies, including midfielder Jason Molumby.
And Molumby isn’t the only opposing central player to see a card against Stoke. Recently under Pelach, Derby pair Ebou Adams and Marcus Harness both saw yellow, Sheff Utd’s Vini Souza saw a card after three fouls, while another man booked was Bristol City’s Jordan Williams.
For what it’s worth, Swansea’s Goncalo Franco (2), Portsmouth’s Marlon Pack (3) and Blackburn’s Sondre Tronstrad (2) have escaped despite a couple of fouls against this lively Potters front line.
The goals don’t exactly flow when these sides meet. But I’m expecting to see plenty of cards and a heavy presence from referee Bell. His authoritarian style should see several players booked, one of which I’m leaning towards Honeyman.
I’ll finish by stating that Rayan Ait-Nouri (Wolves) and Lucas Digne (Aston Villa) – the former Toffee at Anfield – were also on this week’s radar.
- Selection: George Honeyman to be booked (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 3.4
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 5/10
Burnley vs Swansea: Caught in a Webb of unders
England, Championship, Sunday, November 10th, 15:00 (UK)
I tipped up an unders angle in Swansea’s trip to Oxford last Saturday – a game that saw both sides collect just a single card each for a winning angle. When something’s not broken, what do we need to fix?
There’s very little to change behind the thinking here. Swansea only average 1.9 cards per league game this season, while Burnley collect around two per game here at Turf Moor.
Straight away I’m keen to take on cards with those numbers, and the fact that these two sides will want to get the ball down and play. That was what we saw during the Swans away win at Oxford, where they committed just eight fouls.
That’s now 10 games that Swansea have seen two or fewer cards in the league, including in four road trips.
Scott Parker’s side have seen under three cards in four of their six here at Turf Moor. The two occasions they’ve downed this angle came in Lancashire derbies, picking up four against Blackburn and three against Preston. They were games with an edge, something this shouldn’t have.
The Clarets played out a goalless draw against QPR here the other week, that game had just one late card that went to the visitors. While Parker’s men saw the only card in a game against Plymouth. Two games there that saw just one card.
Those are the signs I like to see, especially when we’ve got two footballing sides. But I also appreciate the PGMOL’s appointment people for giving David Webb this fixture.
Webb has taken charge of nine league games this season and has only hit the four card mark in three of those. In total, he’s averaging just 2.7 cards per game. Which, in the context of the previously mentioned James Bell, is a miniscule amount.
Last Saturday, Webb was at Elland Road for Leeds’ 3-0 win over PLymouth, where he blanked. That’s right – one of those rare games where an official doesn’t show a card!
I might be placing plenty of emphasis on him following suit – something that’s even rarer – but when Webb’s numbers show card counts of 1, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2, 3, 4 & 0, there’s a whole lot of hope for unders.
Only in one of Webb’s games has he shown three cards to any team – Stoke in their cling-on-for-a-draw against Bristol City – match count: four, split 3-1.
Other than that, the whistler has generally shown two cards or fewer to teams. He did Burnley’s victory over Portsmouth in September – that saw two cards each. While he showed three yellows in Swansea’s defeat at Blackburn – a 2-1 card split to the Swans.
I’ve mentioned that the referee has taken charge of nine league games, this angle has won in eight of those! That’s 88% of Webb’s games, where backing each team under three cards has paid out. I’m all for it happening again.
This was penned during Burnley’s game at West Brom, and I look on horrified as Josh Cullen sees a first-half yellow for flattening John Swift!
- Selection: Under 3 Burnley cards & under 3 Swansea cards
- Best Odds: 2.05
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10
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