The Cards Column Tips: League Two is where it’s at!

Matt Kirby nailed a full house last week with both match picks landing with ease and Lewis Cook seeing yellow in the first half of Bournemouth’s trip to West Ham. That sealed 1.91, 2.0 and 5.0 winners for our bookings expert.

As we reach the run-in, there are plenty of huge games across the Premier League and League Two. So, Matt is back to run the rule over his favourite cards and booking points bets.

• Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon: 20+ booking points each team
• Liverpool vs West Ham: Alexis Mac Allister To Be Booked
• Morecambe vs Carlisle: Carlisle most booking points & Carlisle 20+ booking points

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Referee Appointments in England: Goodbye Mr Cann and Toner’s League Two task

 Jarred Gillett is in charge of the weekend’s first Premier League game when Man City host Crystal Palace. That game at the Etihad will also bring the curtain down on Darren Cann’s glittering career with the 2010 World Cup final assistant referee takes his final bow.

Anthony Taylor is at Molineux for Wolves v Spurs after his three red cards last weekend, while Chris Kavanagh has Man Utd’s trip to Newcastle.

The Friday night game in the Championship has seen Tony Harrington replace initial appointment Rob Jones at Turf Moor. Fellow Select Group 1 official Michael Salisbury has the relegation six-pointer between Cardiff and Stoke. Word of warning, Salisbury only averages 3.6 cards per game this season – big boo!

Josh Smith continues his comeback from injury at Adams Park, where Stevenage are the visitors. Elliot Bell has Barnsley v Bolton and has shown 85, 55 and 50 booking points in his last three outings since returning from Japan. 

Ben Toner is in League Two for the bottom-of-the-table meeting between Morecambe and Carlisle. The two teams above them also face off this weekend, with James Oldham taking charge of Accrington v Tranmere.

It’s the EFL Trophy final between Birmingham and Peterborough on Sunday, which will be refereed by Ben Speedie.

For more info and data, give Matt a follow on X – @m_kirby95. 

Doncaster vs AFC Wimbledon: Promotion rivals collide

England, League Two, Saturday, April 12th, 12:30 (UK)

We’re at the business end of the season and the promotion race in League Two can only be described as enthralling. Doncaster are three points off top spot with fifth-place Wimbledon firmly in the mix for automatic promotion.

And with that should come some needle, as well as nerves. So, my first pick takes us to south Yorkshire, where I’m turning a blind eye to some of the data, as that goes out of the window with so much at stake.

The pick here is the same as last week’s successful match selection – 20+ booking points to each team at 2.1 with Sky Bet. 

Basically, the game state given what’s on the line just makes me look towards cards here, especially after the reverse fixture in December’s saw 80 booking points – a 50-30 split to Rovers.

I know I tend to talk a lot about averages a lot but I’m still willing to play this bet despite Grant McCann’s side seeing just 22 yellows in 20 home games – that’s 1.1 per game. As I’ve stated, the magnitude of the game could call for the dark arts, or frustrations running high if behind.

The recent numbers in Rovers games are encouraging though. Across their last three games, they’ve picked up 20, 30 and 20 booking points, two of those were at home, with the middle number coming against fellow promotion-hopefuls Walsall. That kind of backs up the theory behind high-stakes matches increasing the card counts.

We’ve also got a decent away side in Wimbledon for cards. They average 2.4 per away league game, seeing 20+ in 14 of their 20, including in each of their last five. Two recent away counts include 60 at Colchester and 75 at Swindon!

What I also like here is that these two sides sit within the top seven for fouls committed per game in League Two. Johnnie Jackson’s men are second at 13.6, with Rovers in seventh at 12.1. Further encouragement to this angle!

And the cherry on top is a decent referee. Neil Hair has missed parts of the season through injury, but he’s shown 4+ cards in five of his 6.3 games – he limped off injured, strangely enough, in AFC Wimbledon v Carlisle back in October.

Prior to that game, he showed 50-20 worth of booking points in Gillingham v Barrow and 20-60 in Wycombe v Crawley. Since his return this spring, he had a 30-10 split in the National League game between Gateshead and Braintree, while his EFL return saw a 20-40 split as Accrington and Bradford played out a goalless draw. 

That’s 25 yellow cards across his last four completed games across the leagues – an average of 6.3 per 90. Can you see why I like cards? 

• Selection: 20+ booking points each team (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: SkyBet
• Stake: 7/10

Alexis Mac Allister To Be Booked: He’s taking the Mac, ref!

England, Premier League, Sunday, April 13th, 14:00 (UK)

I found this quite a tricky pick this week. I wanted to head into the Championship for some of the relegation battles but the prices are quite tight and certain games, like Cardiff v Stoke, don’t have referees conducive for backing cards.

That said, I did consider Stoke’s Junior Tchmadeau at 4.0 just because of his propensity to run his mouth. Dissent was the reason for his card on Tuesday against Luton that was after Carlton Morris escaped a second yellow for strangling Ashley Phillips. 

But I’ll swerve that because of the ref, and follow the old saying: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. 

If you cast your mind back to last week’s article, I mentioned that certain West Ham players draw plenty of fouls. Lewis Cook fell hook, line and sinker for it, so I’m rolling the dice again – this time with Alexis Mac Allister.

Let’s start with the World Cup winner who ranks fifth for fouls in the Premier League (56). Straight away you imagine him being in the thick of the action, even if you suspect Liverpool dominate possession. 

The Argentine has six cards in the league this season, plus five more from their Champions League campaign. That could have been added to last weekend where he escaped sanction despite three fouls at Fulham.

Now, cast your mind back to when the sides met at the London Stadium. That meeting saw Mac Allister make four tackles and commit three fouls, so he’s all-action. And that’ll help up against the likes of Lucas Paqueta, Tomas Soucek and Jarrod Bowen.

Similar to what I mentioned last week, Paqueta has drawn 34 fouls across his last 10, Soucek has drawn 10 in his last seven, plus Bowen has won 23 free kicks across his previous 10 apps. 

I do think West Ham will get chances to hit Liverpool on the counter attack and given the Reds recent wobbles, there might be some encouragement for Graham Potter’s side.

We have Andy Madley in the middle for this one. He cautioned three Liverpool players in their 2-0 win at Brentford in January. While he took charge of this fixture in the EFL Cup back in September when Edson Alvarez saw red.

Madley can be hit-and-miss but given the fouls West Ham players can draw, they can milk the contact, especially when trying to counter. So, the 5.5 for a Mac Allister card doesn’t look too bad given his record for fouls.

• Selection: Alexis Mac Allister to be booked
• Best Odds: 5.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Morecambe vs Carlisle: A literal relegation scrap

England, League Two, Saturday, April 12th, 15:00 (UK)

Two teams on the verge of falling out of the EFL are Morecambe and Carlisle, who occupy the League Two relegation spots. A win for either would be a useful boost for this run-in, especially with the fixtures throwing up 21st v 22nd on the same day.

I’m going to start with the simple basics to illustrate this bet. Morecambe average 1.6 yellows per home game compared to Carlisle’s 2.8 on the road. The figure for the Cumbrians is the third-highest in away games in the division.

Even when you take the whole season with home/away data, only Accrington’s 114 yellows is more than Carlisle’s 109. Basically, Morecambe have seen 31 fewer cautions at 78 across the season. 

Straight away my eye was drawn to the visitors picking up the most booking points, which is priced at 1.8 with Sky Bet. You could just play that in truth!

That most booking points angle has landed in 10 of their last 18 away games with five ties in that sequence. But it’s some of the totals, including 70 at Bromley, 50 at Port Vale, 40 at Crewe, Fleetwood and Harrogate, as well as 45 on their last road trip to Chesterfield that grab my attention. 

Mark Hughes’ side came from behind to beat Newport 3-2 last Saturday. That game saw them pick up 30 booking points to the Exiles’ 10 as they were penalised for time wasting, something we could see plenty of here.

And with Carlisle’s high booking points numbers on their travels, Morecambe have low numbers at home. 

Here are the Shrimpers’ home booking points totals since December 21st: 10, 10, 10, 20, 0, 10, 25, 10, 45, 10 & 0. In eight of those 11 games, they’ve picked up either zero or one card. So, on that basis, it’s not hard to imagine that Carlisle’s total surpasses that despite the pressure of the fixture. 

Plus, to boost that 1.8 to 1.83 we can add in the visitors to get 20+ booking points, with that landing in 16/20 away games (80%). And when the sides met on Boxing Day, the booking points finished 35-30 to the Cumbrian outfit after Jon Mellish’s straight red.

The bookies aren’t taking many chances with this one. Sky Bet go 60+ booking points for their first odds-against quote, and that’s no real surprise with Ben Toner in charge. He’s averaging 5.3 cards per game, with a huge four of those coming in the second half! 

Toner has shown the away side 20+ booking points in 84% of his 31 matches in the EFL this season. His last six games have finished with splits of 30-50, 30-40, 30-40, 20-40, 0-40 & 0-20. So, this punt has won in each of those! You could also say he tries to keep the home fans on side on that evidence.

• Selection: Carlisle most booking points & Carlisle 20+ booking points
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: SkyBet
• Stake: 7/10

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