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Boxing The Cards Column Tips: Focus further down the leagues
The domestic club season doesn’t seem to have been underway for five minutes, yet we’ve reached the first international break. It means just a selection of games across League One and Two, with just 13 games to pick from. But we’ve still had Matt Kirby searching for the best card and booking points bets on Saturday.
In this article:
- Doncaster vs Gillingham: 30+ Gillingham Booking Points
- MK Dons vs Walsall: Walsall Most Booking Points
Odds via Sky Bet as of 21:00, September 5th. Odds may now differ.
Referee Appointments in League One and Two: A fresh face but a familiar name
Former MLS official Alex Chilowicz keeps his American ties when overseeing Hollywood A-list-owned Wrexham against Shrewsbury. He’s shown three cards in both league outings but his two cup games have both seen him reach for his red card.
There is an EFL debutant this weekend. That’s for Zac Kennard-Kettle. Does that surname partly ring a bell? That’s right. He’s the son of former EFL man in black Trevor Kettle. Zac’s debut takes him to Barrow’s home game with Swindon. Elsewhere, Thomas Parsons has continued from last season’s form showing plenty of cards in his three games. He’s averaging 5.7 per game already. Sam Purkiss has also shown at least 40+ booking points in both league outings.
If you’d like to see the chart, please check out Matt’s Twitter (@m_kirby95), where he’s also posting Nations League referee data.
Doncaster vs Gillingham: More cards for the leaders?
England, League Two, Saturday, September 7th, 15:00 (UK)
We’ve got limited options with the international break, so my attention turns to the markets available on Sky Bet.
I’ll start in League Two where Doncaster welcome Gilingham to south Yorkshire. Just a point separates the two sides who start the day in fifth and first respectively.
Mark Bonner’s side might top the table, but they’ve picked up their fair share of cards already. So far, they’ve received 10 yellows and a red.
On the numbers already, you have to fancy them to pick up a few cards. The Gills have collected 30, 20, 30 & 55 booking points in their four league games.
Their victory over Chesterfield last weekend saw a crazy end as Charles Breakspear booked anyone in sight, although Gills had picked up 30 booking points by the 56th minute.
Given their numbers alone, I really don’t mind seeing the quotes of 2.00 for them to hit that 30+ line for a fourth time in five matches.
Plus, when it comes to fouls conceded and drawn, then we look in a good place. Gililngham rank fifth for fouls committed (15 per game), while Donny draw the joint-most in the division (15.5).
I’ve mentioned Thomas Parsons in my spiel above. His three games have seen him brandish five, six and six cards. On that basis, we should be expecting around the 56 booking points mark if the referee hits those numbers once more.
In all three outings, the away side have been shown four yellows, so in our case 40 booking points. Plus, he gives plenty of free kicks, averaging 27.5 per game, which gives me enough encouragement there could be a few visiting players entering his notebook.
- Selection: 30+ Gillingham booking points
- Best Odds: 2.00
- Bookmaker: Sky Bet365
- Stake: 10/10
MK Dons vs Walsall: Saddlers to try and halt the Dons
England, League Two, Saturday, September 7th, 15:00 (UK)
With no player markets available at the time of writing, my second and final pick this week comes at Stadium MK.
A lot of people had high hopes for the Dons coming into the season, yet Mike Williamson’s side are yet to get going. Their defeat on Monday night at Salford highlighted a few issues, especially in building and sustaining attacks that need to be addressed if they want to challenge.
It’s Walsall who have flown out of the traps. The Saddlers have won three of their four league games and beat League One Huddersfield in the EFL Cup second round the other week.
While Matt Saddler’s men have made an impressive start, they’re somewhat in the mould of Gillingham, where they take no prisoners.
Walsall’s 10 yellows is up there with the most – only AFC Wimbledon and Salford (both 12) – have more. And in three of their four league games, they’ve collected the most booking points with tallies of 20-0 and two 40-20 outcomes.
That’s what drew my eye when you consider that they’ll be chasing the ball for a lot of this match. The Dons dominate possession, averaging nearly 64% this season, so if they move it quickly and sharply, we could see a few late nibbles from the visiting players.
What I also like about this bet is that Walsall rank sixth for fouls per game (13.8), while MK Dons draw 13.3 fouls. And when it comes to those fouls won, only four teams win fewer free kicks than Walsall, suggesting Dons shouldn’t have to do much fouling.
In this fixture last season, MK Dons smashed Walsall 5-0 with the visitors collecting both cards.
Now when it comes to referee James Oldham, we’ve got someone finding his feet back in the EFL after a couple of injury-hampered seasons. His sole League Two game so far saw him produce the yellow card six times – the visitors seeing it on four occasions as Tranmere drew 0-0 at Port Vale.
Before that, Oldham had refereed a National League game that finished 10-a-side, so he’s not afraid to mete out the discipline.
Given his liking for cards and Walsall’s record for collecting them, then I’ll take the visitors to pick up the most booking points at 2.10.
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