The Cards Column Tips: Mad(ley) about cards at the Etihad

After a week off, where the FA Cup proved there’s still some magic left, Matt Kirby is back with the latest referee appointments and cards data. 

Matt has cast his eye over the fixtures and put together his three favourite fancies. There are a couple in the Premier League, with another coming from League Two. 

• Man City vs Newcastle: Over 4.5 Asian Cards
• Fulham vs Nottingham Forest: Timothy Castagne To Be Booked
• Cheltenham vs Barrow: 20+ booking points each team

Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: Some of the key men in the middle

The Premier League action kicks off on Friday night when Chris Kavanagh oversees Brighton v Chelsea. Andy Madley has the intriguing contest between Man City and Newcastle, while Peter Bankes has Man Utd’s trip to Spurs on Sunday.

In the Championship, low cards issuer David Webb has John Eustace’s first game as Derby manager when the Rams visit QPR. Andrew Kitchen has the Lancashire derby between Preston and Burnley. While Craig Pawson takes charge of Leeds’ home game with Sunderland.

Matt Corlett has shown 40+ booking points in 12 of his 13 league middles. He’s one to watch for Leyton Orient v Lincoln. Thomas Parsons has hit that mark in 85% of his games too – he has Reading v Rotherham.

In League Two, a few rookies get games. They include Jamie O’Connor, who has shown 40 and 60 booking points in his two games. He’s in control for Crewe’s trip to Gillingham. Select Group 2 ref Andy Davies has a north west battle between Morecambe and Accrington.

Man City vs Newcastle: Madman Madley to bring the cards

England, Premier League, Saturday, February 15th, 15:00 (UK)

Man City’s Champions League participation hangs by a thread after Jude Bellingham’s late winner for Real Madrid on Tuesday night. If one thing can be said, this Newcastle side could smell blood and inflict further pain on Pep Guardiola and his charges.

These sides sit fifth and sixth, level on 41 points. So, it’s a big game if they have aspirations of recording a top-four finish come May. And it’s the Magpies who have soared in recent weeks, winning their last four on the road.

Just looking at this game, there’s a feeling it could be a fun watch for the neutral with plenty of chances, but importantly for this column, fouls and cards. 

I’m hoping for a bit of a hangover from when these sides met in September. Jarred Gillett refereed that game and dished out eight yellows – four to each team. Even Newcastle’s visit to the Etihad last season resulted in them picking up five of the six yellows brandished. 

I’ve touched on a couple of the recent league meetings there, but the last five have yielded totals of 6, 6, 6, 3 & 8 – an average of 5.8 per 90.

With that in mind, I was happy to see Andy Madley appointed to this game. He’s taken charge of 13 league games this season, where he’s averaging 4.5 cards. 

Bet365 have set the Asian cards line at 4.5, with overs the way to play it at 1.83 given Madley’s appointment and recent head-to-heads.

Not shy at all

Madley hasn’t been exactly shy when it comes to carding players this season. The Yorkshireman has already taken charge of two Newcastle games, which saw seven and five cards. Both over the line to land this bet!

And in all competitions, Madley has shown 5+ cards in 11 of 17. Recently, he’s gone 5, 9, 0, 5 and 5, which is why we can be confident in him delivering in a game with the likes of Joelinton, Bruno Guimaraes and Mateo Kovacic operating in the middle of the park. 

In the Premier League this season, Man City rank in the top half for yellows in home games. The Sky Blues average 2.2 yellows at the Etihad and that’s usually half of the battle, getting a referee to book one of theirs with the possession they tend to garner. 

However, that hasn’t been the case unlike previous seasons, which also boosts the hope of a spiky game. Even if Newcastle do intend to play on the counter, it’ll force the old cynical trip or shirt pull, resulting in a card.

It also helps that the Magpies rank joint-second for fouls drawn (13) in the top flight with only Aston Villa (13.3) winning more. 

Madley’s recent numbers look strong and coincide with this fixture becoming fairly card-heavy in recent seasons. Therefore, the over 4.5 Asian line does appeal with Bet365. 

• Selection: Over 4.5 Asian Cards (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Timothy Castagne To Be Booked: Cast your eye over that price!  

England, Premier League, Saturday, February 15th, 15:00 (UK)

I’m staying in the Premier League with another 15:00 kick-off under the microscope for this week’s player pick.

For a podcast I record (yes, I’m one of them too), I’ve tipped two Fulham players to commit a foul each. You can find out who the second part is by listening on all good platforms (i.e Search ‘AMOK Propcast’ on Spotify or look out for it on my X feed).

Given I’m keen on that angle, I’ll take it one step further and give you the insight about half of that double. I’ll take Timothy Castagne to be booked at a huge 7.0 with Sky Bet. If you want the cover of Impact Sub, he’s 6.0 with William Hill. 

The Belgian averages 0.8 fouls per 90 and has only seen one yellow in the Premier League, which might strike you as odd for a player pick. But hear me out!

New Year, New Castagne

After a quiet 2024 for fouls, Castange’s league foul counts in 2025 read 1, 1 (booked), 1, 2 & 3. So, he’s already increased his volume compared to his other nine appearances this term.

What else I like is the fact he struggled to contain Newcastle’s Anthony Gordon in their last league game, committing three fouls but escaped without sanction. His first foul in that one came after three minutes, so that’s another reason why the foul angle looks so nice.

A key part to this one is the fact that Forest are flying and Anthony Elanga is firing. Looking back at the reverse fixture, Kenny Tete started at right-back for Fulham and had a torrid afternoon. He gave away four free-kicks and saw yellow – so fingers crossed Castange follows suit.

With Elanga’s pace down this flank and Neco Williams overlapping, there might be a few occasions where our man is out of position and caught in no-man’s land whether to follow the man or close down the ball.

And when it comes to opposition right-backs against Forest, they do certainly commit plenty of fouls:

• Brighton’s Joel Veltman recorded four
• Bournemouth’s Lewis Cook two (booked)
• Southampton’s Yukinari Sugawara two
• Luton’s Reuell Waters two
• Everton’s Ashley Young three
• Spurs’ Djed Spence one (booked)
• Ipswich’s Axel Tuanzebe two (booked)

In the Premier League, Elanga draws 1.54 fouls per 90, while team-mate Williams is virtually the same at 1.56. With this pair coming down this right side for Castagne to defend against makes that 7.0 look a chunky price.

Jarred Gillett is the man in the middle. He’s calmed down somewhat since his return from injury and the VAR booth, which has seen his card average slip to 3.9 per game.

However, I like to think fondly of his early season form, where he brandished eight in Newcastle v Man City and then the north London derby. The Aussie arbiter can certainly dish them out when push comes to shove, let’s hope it’s in the direction of our bumbling Belgian.

• Selection: Timothy Castagne to be booked (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 7.0
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 5/10

Cheltenham vs Barrow: Roll with Greg 

England, League Two, Saturday, February 15th, 15:00 (UK)

I tipped in Barrow’s last away league game, which did end in disaster when there was just one solitary card. However, I’m putting a line through that and going again as they make the trip to Cheltenham.

When Barrow went to Newport I went with 50+ booking points. That angle has landed in 67% of their games, with that figure increasing to 79% when you single out their away games. So, without sounding like a broken record, the data is there to take a similar approach. 

I’ll tweak the market this time and go with 20+ booking points to each team at 2.1. Remember, a yellow is worth 10, a straight red is 25 and second bookable offence 35.

The Cumbrian outfit have picked up 20+ booking points in 60% of their league games, which again increases to 71% on the road (10/14). 

Cheltenham are one of those interesting sides. In League Two so far, they’ve hit 20+ booking points in just 45% of their game, which might look like an uninspiring figure. But when they’re roared on by the Whaddon Road crowd, that number increases to 53%. 

Over to you, Mr Rollason

With all that in mind, let me play a key component to this bet – and it’ll be a new name to plenty of you in Greg Rollason. 

Mr Rollason has been dipping in and out of the Football League lately and has taken charge of three games in the professional pyramid. Those games have seen booking points totals of:

• MK Dons 30-20 Crewe
• Bromley 20-20 Colchester
• Chesterfield 20-40 Doncaster

That’s all three Football League games that have seen at least 40+ booking points. But most importantly, he’s hit the magical 20+ to each team in all three. 

Even his two games in the National League last month saw totals of York 40-20 Gateshead and Sutton 20-30 Eastleigh to yet again prove the point. 

It might just be a small sample from his three league outings, but those non-league matches also paint a picture of a strict official. So far, he’s also averaging 27 fouls per game, which seems on the whistle-happy side and is encouraging for the chance of cards.

There might have been a recent managerial change at Barrow, which might impact on some of the early season data, but I’m more than happy to play this bet with Rollason’s numbers. His inexperience at this level could easily be played on, while he’ll be eager to impress to make sure of his place on the National List next season.

• Selection: 20+ booking points each team (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: Sky Bet
• Stake: 5/10

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