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Mixed martial arts The Cards Column Tips: Fetch the Barrow! It’s time to Cook
It’s fair to say referees have been in the spotlight in the past week, so our cards and booking points expert Matt Kirby has cast his eye over the weekend’s fixture list.
Matt has picked out three of his favourite angles, which cover a range of divisions from the Premier League to League Two.
- Newport vs Barrow: 50+ Booking Points
- Bournemouth vs Liverpool: Lewis Cook To Be Booked
- Swansea vs Coventry: 50+ Booking Points
Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: Michael’s back in the middle
There’s no rest for Michael Oliver after last weekend’s controversial red to Myles Lewis-Skelly. After a Champions League game in midweek, he’s got the basement battle between Ipswich and Southampton before the Merseyside derby next week.
Andy Madley has Saturday’s Midlands derby as Wolves welcome Aston Villa to Molineux. Sunday’s crunch game between Arsenal and Man City sees Peter Bankes get a slice of the big fixtures.
In the Championship, Ben Toner has Sheff Wed v Luton. Toner has shown 97 second-half cards, so is closing in on the century. Stephen Martin has the big north east battle on Monday night when Sunderland visit Middlesbrough.
Farai Hallam is in charge of the standout League One game as leaders Birmingham host Steve Evans’ Rotherham. While Thomas Parsons, who has shown 4+ cards in 83% of his league games, is at the seaside for Blackpool vs Charlton.
Select Group 2 ref James Bell showed two reds cards in his midweek outing in the fourth tier. He remains in that division when leaders Walsall look to return to winning ways against Salford. Ed Duckworth will try to keep control as north west rivals Morecambe and Fleetwood collide.
If you want to see the data charts, give Matt a follow on X – @m_kirby95.
Newport vs Barrow: There’s not a Whing or a prayer here!
England, League Two, Saturday, February 1st, 15:00 (UK)
A visit to Rodney Parade for Newport vs Barrow might not be the most glamorous of places to start, but there’s plenty of good reason.
Let’s jump straight to it and say that Barrow games have recorded 50+ booking points in 20 of their 27 League Two games (74%). More startling is the figure in their away games – it rises to 11 of 13 (84.6%).
That’s quite a high figure for any side to be involved, with seven of their last eight on the road hitting this 50+ mark.
Andy Whing was only appointed the Barrow boss the other week but he watched his side lose 2-1 to Doncaster on Wednesday – a game that saw 50 booking points!
The Cumbrian outfit average 2.3 yellows per away game, while their hosts, Newport, average 2.1. On that basis, we should be looking at the minimum of four cards or 40 booking points, which is the territory we’re hoping to be in.
It helps that Newport have seen four red cards this season – one of the higher figures in the division – with two of those dismissals on their own patch.
And talking of red cards, there have been two brandished across their last four meetings. Those games have yielded booking points of 65, 75, 30 & 50. The latter of those figures was the reverse fixture in September when Barrow ran out 2-0 winners.
While in that above sequence, the sole encounter at Rodney Parade was the one that saw 75 booking points, as Newport had Ryan Delaney dismissed in the first half.
We have a solid enough referee in Scott Tallis on our side here. He’s dished out 40+ booking points in 10 of his 13 league games. He’s then gone one card further to see this pay out on five occasions.
These two sides are in the bottom portion of the table, which could make this a scrappy encounter. But with Barrow’s matches tending to hit this 50+ line more often than not, it’s definitely worth a go this weekend.
- Selection: 50+ booking points (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.10
- Bookmaker: Sky Bet
- Stake: 8/10
Lewis Cook To Be Booked: It’s time to Cook, Lewis
England, Premier League, Saturday, February 1st, 15:00 (UK)
It’s a shame to see Bournemouth’s game against Premier League leaders Liverpool kicking off at 15:00 and behind the blackout. I’ve got a feeling it could be something of a cracker!
Andoni Iraola has done a remarkable job on the south coast and this current 11-game unbeaten run has certainly had its challenges, with numerous injuries to key first-team players.
That means Iraola has had to shuffle players around. One man that’s shown his versatility is Lewis Cook. The central midfielder has played the last couple of games at right-back, but no matter his starting position, his combative nature makes him a prime candidate for a card.
While the Cherries have plenty of injuries, Arne Slot was able to rest some of his key senior players for their Champions League game in midweek, so they should be fairly fresh.
And that just gives me even more reason to take the 5.0 available on Cook to be booked. If you want the cover of Super Sub with Paddy Power, you can still take the 4.5 on offer.
Cook picked up his fifth yellow in the league in last weekend’s 5-0 thumping of Nottingham Forest whilst deputising at right-back. The other four cautions have been collected in that deep-lying midfield role but, as I’ve said, you just have to fancy him in either position.
The 27-year-old has committed the second-most fouls within the Cherries ranks (39) and also tops their tackle charts with 54. He’s a man that puts himself about, so you might want to look at the 1+ foul and 2+ tackles available at 1.80 with Bet365 as another angle.
Liverpool won the reverse fixture 3-0 in September despite Bournemouth’s best efforts, which saw 19 shots. The Cherries also rolled up their sleeves that day, picking up four yellows. Ryan Christie – who we had success with the other week – was booked in the first minute of that!
But more importantly, Cook also saw yellow for words said in the direction of that day’s referee Tony Harrington.
For this meeting, Darren England has been assigned. The arbiter averages 4.8 cards per game, with 3.7 of those coming after the break. So, I wouldn’t worry if we get a cardless first half, although he can’t help himself with that 1.1 average in the opening 45 minutes.
If Cook does start at right-back, then it’s good to point out that three of the last four players in all comps lining up in that position against the Reds have been carded.
There’s a lot to like about the potential angles in this fixture, especially some of the card prices. But for me, Cook is the standout, no matter the position he lines up.
Swansea vs Coventry: Transfer saga brings on-pitch needle
England, Championship, Saturday, February 1st, 15:00 (UK)
I very nearly went for 50+ booking points in Morecambe vs Fleetwood as their meeting earlier in the season saw 100! The referee for that one, Ed Duckworth, has shown 50+ bp in 50% of his 14 league outings, while he’s also hit the 100 mark on two occasions.
But there’s something going on in south Wales that I think gives us potential for an explosive encounter. This weekend might be the first in February, but the January transfer window doesn’t slam shut until Monday.
And that’s led to something of a saga involving Matt Grimes. The player has expressed his desire to move on, forcing Swansea’s hand in accepting a bid from a fellow Championship club.
Funnily enough, that said Championship club happens to Coventry. So, if the paperwork gets completed by midday tomorrow, Grimes will be available to make his Sky Blues debut at the Liberty Stadium.
If that’s the case, this game could have some edge with some close to Swansea suggesting that there was a negative atmosphere around him in the camp with some team-mates not happy about the move. If he plays, which Swansea man snaps him first?
I’m writing this on Thursday night with the deal yet to be completed. There could even be some sort of gentleman’s agreement where Grimes isn’t involved even if the i’s are dotted and the t’s are crossed, but I don’t see that being the case. We just need the deal done!
That’s a lot of supposition but let’s be honest, it adds a level of intrigue to this game. Throw in the fact that Swansea are desperate for a win, as they’ll be nervously looking over their shoulder.
These two do actually bottom in the lower reaches for cards in the Championship. But there were 50 booking points at the CBS Arena back in September. Meanwhile, Swansea’s last six home games have all seen this line come in with match totals of 60, 50, 50, 75, 60 & 95.
Sam Allison has been pretty reliable for cards this season. He’s hit the 50+ booking points mark in nine of his 18 league outings. Those numbers include showing 50 in Swansea’s defeat at Middlesbrough in August and 60 as the Swans held West Brom earlier in the month.
Across those two involvements with the Welsh club, Allison has cautioned six Swansea players, so one of them might be still lingering on his mind.
Given Swansea’s recent booking points totals at home, along with the rumblings over the Grimes transfer, let’s hope for a bit of needle.
- Selection: 50+ booking points
- Best Odds: 2.10
- Bookmaker: Sky Bet
- Stake: 5/10
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