The Cards Column Tips: Physical Potters & slow as an iceBerge

The Cheltenham Festival is done and dusted for another year, so attention returns to the football. In the Premier League, there’s plenty to play for in the battle for European qualification. In the Championship, there’s a duel in the Lion’s Den.

We’ve tasked our referee expert and data collector Matt Kirby to pick out his three favourite bets in the card markets. And he’s starting with a match that he has plenty of interest in!

• Millwall vs Stoke: Stoke -0.5 Asian Cards Handicap
• Fulham vs Tottenham: Sander Berge To Be Booked
• Southampton vs Wolves: Over 1.5 Southampton cards & over 1.5 Wolves cards

Referee Appointments in the Premier League, Championship, League One and Two: Brooks at Wembley and a card-happy trio

As mentioned last week, John Brooks will referee the EFL Cup final between Liverpool and Newcastle on Sunday. He showed six cards in Spurs’ 2-2 draw with Bournemouth last Sunday.

In the Premier League, Simon Hooper oversees Brighton’s trip to Man City with both in contention for a European place. Sunday’s London derby between Arsenal and Chelsea has Chris Kavanagh in charge.

Bobby Madley returns to the second tier when Watford visit Oxford. Dean Whitestone, who blanked in midweek, has Coventry v Sunderland. While Andrew Kitchen is tasked with the Steel City derby at Hillsborough. 

Select Group 1 referee Graham Scott returns to action. His first outing of the season comes when Charlton host Wigan at The Valley. There are also games for card-happy trio Matt Corlett, Charles Breakspear and Thomas Parsons.

For all the data and referee charts, give Matt a follow on X – @m_kirby95.

Millwall vs Stoke: Into the Lions’ Den

England, Championship, Saturday, March 15th, 12:30 (UK)

Stoke picked up a crucial three points on Wednesday in their battle to avoid the drop. Ali Al-Hamadi tapped in Lewis Baker’s cross at the back post to secure Mark Robins a big win, now they head to the capital to face former boss Alex Neil and his Millwall side.

The bet here is pretty simple – Stoke to pick up more cards than their hosts at 1.85 using Bet365’s Asian Cards Handicap. 

The reasoning is equally as straightforward. The Lions have seen just three cards in their last eight home games. Their team totals in that run have been 0, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 1 & 0. 

As you can see, Millwall don’t tend to pick up many cards, with this bet paying out in five of those eight games (three ties). 

With Stoke having a greater need for points, they’ll have to get stuck in and maybe even bring out the dark arts if they take the lead. 

The Potters’ last seven away games have seen them pick up 4, 0, 5, 1, 2 ,1, & 3 cards. In four of those, that’s seen them receive more cards than their hosts. Even their trip to Norwich saw this cop after Junior Tchamadeu was the only player to see yellow.

What also helps this bet is that Stoke draw just 9.1 fouls per game – only Derby (9) win fewer free-kicks than that in the Championship. In contrast, Millwall are at the other end of the scale, winning 11.8 fouls per game – the joint-fourth most. 

With the Lions able to draw plenty of fouls, that can only lead to Andy Davies having to take action against Stoke players, if they are persistently fouling. 

The Hampshire official has taken charge of three Potters games this season. In those, he’s booked 4, 2 & 2 players in red and white, seeing this angle pay out on two occasions. 

What’s more, when these sides met at The Den last season, Stoke won the card count 5-1. And although Davies tends to be a lower-card issuer, he shouldn’t have to deal with too much Millwall aggro given their data. Follow the numbers and take Stoke on the Asian Cards Handicap.

• Selection: Stoke -0.5 Asian Cards Handicap (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.85
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Sander Berge To Be Booked: The tip of the Iceberge

England, Premier League, Sunday, March 16th, 13:30 (UK)

I’m writing this as Spurs play AZ in their Europa League second leg, so the dissent towards Ange Postecoglou could ramp up if the Lilywhites exit the competition. 

At 13:30 on Sunday, they travel across London to visit Fulham, who held them to a 1-1 draw in December’s meeting. And it’s Marco Silva’s side who still have an outside chance of a European place if they can muster a solid run of results. 

The midfield battle is quite a fascinating one on paper for this one and there could be some quite tasty foul match-ups available. 

The player that catches my eye the most is Sander Berge. I’ve mentioned him before this season but I’ve got to bang the drum once more for this encounter.

With Sasa Lukic serving the second of his two-match ban for yellow card accumulation, Berge is likely to get another 90 minutes in the engine room. 

After missing four games around Christmas and New Year, the Norwegian has returned to make fouls counts of 2, 3, 1, 1, 2, 2 & 2. That run saw him booked in back-to-back games against Crystal Palace and Wolves, taking him to four for the season.

He ranks joint-fourth within the Fulham ranks for fouls and finds himself up against a Spurs side who draw the second-most free kicks in the Premier League (13 per 90). Given that, I just see some heavy involvement for Berge dealing with the Spurs attacks.

Even though Berge didn’t commit a foul in the reverse fixture, Lukic was booked and Tom Cairney saw red from off the bench. So, with no Lukic, there’s an added responsibility on Berge’s shoulders, so hopefully there are some fouls from him this time around. 

Andy Madley is a referee who can blow hot and cold. He’s averaging 4.1 cards per league game this season, which brings hope that we’ll see him reaching for his pocket several times in this London derby. 

The Yorkshireman has taken charge of two Spurs games this season. Those have seen nine yellows and a red, with West Ham’s Tomas Soucek and Newcastle’s Joelinton cautioned. With the midfield areas being particularly busy in Spurs games, I’ll target Berge for a card. 

• Selection: Sander Berge to be booked
• Best Odds: 4.5
• Bookmaker: SkyBet
• Stake: 5/10

Southampton vs Wolves: Top foulers to collect the cards

England, Premier League, Saturday, March 15th, 15:00 (UK)

Are you still here Southampton? The Saints sit bottom of the Premier League with time running out if they want to surpass Derby’s lowest points haul of 11, although a win here would do the trick.

However, they haven’t looked too likely in recent weeks, shipping plenty of goals under Ivan Juric, whose wildcard appointment looks even more rogue. 

Wolves are the fourth team in the relegation battle but have a six-point buffer, which they will look to extend at St. Mary’s. And if they do win on the south coast, you could argue the relegation places are sealed.

What makes this game a play for cards is that Wolves (13) and Southampton (12.1) are second and third for fouls per game in the top flight. Only Bournemouth (13.8) outdo the pair!

I’ve said it before but the Saints do sin. They’ve seen 75 yellow cards this season, with only Chelsea (76) receiving more. Wolves are joint-eighth for that metric at 59.

I see Bet365 go 1.83 for both teams to receive two cards, yet when you go over to Bet Victor and combine over 1.5 Southampton cards with over 1.5 Wolves cards, you can get 2.10 in a Bet Builder. That’s the route I’ll take. 

The Saints have picked up 2+ cards in 22 of their 28 Premier League games, including in nine of 13 at home. Meanwhile, Wolves have hit this mark in 20 of their 28 matches, with that narrowing down to 11 of 14 on their travels.

In their last seven away games, Old Gold have collected 4, 0, 2, 2, 2, 2, & 3, which makes them perfect candidates for at least two here. And the reverse fixture saw five yellows, albeit a 4-1 split to the Saints.

Ref Rob Jones disappointed me in Portsmouth’s win over Leeds last weekend, but he can make amends in this one. He booked four Southampton players in their draw at Brighton in November and has shown 2+ cards each in eight of his outings in 2024/25. 

Jones’ last four Premier League games have had card splits of 2-3, 1-5, 0-6 & 1-3. Plus, there’s the Championship game between Sunderland and Watford that was 4-2.

I always get the impression he’s eager to book players and 29 cards in his last six games backs that up somewhat. So, with an average of 4.8 cards per 90 across those recent matches, I’m more than willing to take 2+ each at an odds-against price with Bet Victor here.

• Selection: Over 1.5 Southampton cards & over 1.5 Wolves cards (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: Bet Victor
• Stake: 8/10

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