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Boxing The Cards Column Tips: Jordan James Back In The Firing Line
As the run-in continues with titles, promotion and relegation to be decided, we’ve asked Matt Kirby to pick out some of his favourite cards and bookings tips from this weekend’s slate. He covers the action across the Premier League and the Championship, as Matt’s beloved Stoke City readies for battle nearer the bottom of the division.
- Arsenal vs Aston Villa: 50+ Booking Points
- Birmingham vs Coventry: Jordan James To Be Booked
- Sheffield Wednesday vs Stoke: Both teams Over 2 Cards
Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two Weekend Landscape: Team Bookings and Referee Data
Tim Robinson will blow the whistle to kick the Premier League action off this weekend. He oversees Spurs’ trip to Newcastle. Sunday’s games see some card-happy officials with Stuart Attwell at London Stadium, while David Coote has Arsenal’s home game against former boss Unai Emery’s Aston Villa.
In the Championship, there’s something of a six-pointer between Sheff Wed and Stoke that sees Stephen Martin in charge. Select Group 1 officials Rob Jones and Thomas Bramall are also in the second tier. While there’s a Championship debut for Will Finnie.
Anthony Backhouse has the standout League One game between promotion-chasing pair Bolton and Portsmouth. Derby are also in that mix – their home game against Leyton Orient is in the hands of Lewis Smith.
Ben Speedie showed eight cards last Saturday. He’s been appointed to MK Dons’ home game against Mansfield with significance at the top of League Two. Simon Mather – one of the top card issuers – has the ‘Artell derby’ as Grimsby visit Crewe.
Arsenal vs Aston Villa: Coote + cards = fireworks
England, Premier League, Sunday, April 14th, 16:30 (UK)
The highlight of the weekend in the Premier League sees table-toppers Arsenal welcome former boss Unai Emery and his Aston Villa side to the Emirates. It’s also a big game for the visitors who slipped out of the top four last weekend and will hope to keep tabs on Spurs in the race for fourth.
Turn the clocks back to December. The Villans defeated the Gunners 1-0 as Emery had the last laugh. That was a hard-fought game that saw the yellow card brandished six times, and we could be in for a similar number of cautions.
You might ask ‘why?’ The reason as regular followers will know is David Coote, who just loves his cards. On my figures, he’s averaging 5.8 cards per game this season, which is the joint-most of any referee across all four divisions.
I went with cards in his last assignment between Liverpool and Brighton that saw him show eight yellows – some for very soft infringements. So, I’ve got to go in again!
Bet365 have over 4.5 cards at 1.73, which is a tad short. But Sky Bet have 50+ booking points at 1.91 – that’s the way to go! If you’re new to booking points a yellow is worth 10, straight red 25 and being sent-off for a second-bookable offence is 35. Basically, we need five yellows.
And there’s a very good chance we get that. Coote’s last six league games have seen booking points of 50, 50, 50, 80, 60 & 80. He’s clearly on a quota to show at least five!
The first box is ticked for a decent card-issuing referee. Next up we have two sides with plenty to play for and who tend to go at it. Their last six meetings have produced (most recent first): 60, 40, 50, 60, 70 & 50 booking points – so a winner in five of them.
To help matters further, the Midlands outfit rank joint-third at 2.6 yellows per game. While their opponents pick up an average of 2.5 per 90.
Given the reverse fixture also saw 31 successful tackles apiece, we should see both sides getting stuck in and some mistimed challenges. Under Coote’s watchful eye, it’s those that could see him produce the yellow card. And 1.91 for 50+ booking points is something I’m happy to get on board with.
- Selection: 50+ Booking Points (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.91
- Bookmaker: Sky Bet
- Stake: 10/10
Jordan James To Be Booked: That man James again!
England, Championship, Saturday, April 13th, 15:00 (UK)
I’m going to have to go in again on Jordan James as my player pick once more. My hope is that he starts this Midlands derby unlike he did the last time I put him in the spotlight.
Birmingham are in all sorts of trouble, occupying the final spot in the bottom three on goal difference after their midweek 1-0 home defeat to Cardiff.
Things don’t get easier as seventh-placed Coventry visit St Andrew’s – and the Sky Blues need points to bridge the gap to Norwich in the play-off places. So, Mark Robins could go with an attacking side, featuring Ellis Simms, Haji Wright, Callum O’Hare and Kasey Palmer.
That attacking quartet has been thriving in recent weeks and they could get at this Birmingham side, so the hosts might be penned in for large parts. And that might lead to Jordan James committing a few fouls to try and break the play up, plus there’s a chance of a counter-attacking foul as well.
The Welshman has been booked nine times this season, most recently in Birmingham’s defeat at Leicester – another Midlands derby – last Saturday. While the attacking midfielder somehow escaped a card despite three fouls against Cardiff in midweek. If he hits that many here, I’d expect Thomas Bramall to produce the yellow.
James was booked for one of his two fouls in the reverse fixture, so he’s got previous in this fixture. And with Palmer and O’Hare amongst some of the most-fouled players in the Championship, there could be plenty of Coventry free-kicks.
I don’t mind referee Thomas Bramall for a card either. He’s averaging 4.8 per game and has hit some huge numbers in 2024 alone. Nine cards between Blackpool and Exeter in League One, nine more and a red in Forest’s victory over West Ham in the top flight, plus seven as Milwall shocked Southampton.
With Bramall having a card streak in him, I’m keen to take the 4.33 on James to be booked when we put all the above factors together. Birmingham need something from this game, so the exuberance of youth could see James be a little over zealous in the challenge.
- Selection: Jordan James to be Booked
- Best Odds: 4.33
- Bookmaker: Bet365
- Stake: 10/10
Sheffield Wednesday vs Stoke: A tense six-pointer
England, Championship, Saturday, April 13th, 15:00 (UK)
Things are getting tense in the Championship with six or seven sides battling it out to avoid the two places in the drop zone. And there’s a meeting between two sides deep in trouble at Hillsborough.
Sheffield Wednesday have had a good few days. After beating relegation-rivals QPR at Loftus Road, they then rescued a point from 2-0 behind against Norwich in midweek to boost their survival hopes.
In contrast, Stoke put in a couple of Jekyll and Hyde performances. They were really good against West Brom – despite only drawing 2-2 – the xG in that was 2.22 to 0.95 in the Potters’ favour. While they were no-shows in midweek losing 3-0 in a controversial game at Swansea. Steven Schumacher must get a response from his players in a huge seven days for the club.
Their league positions mean there’s a need for points. That could lead to a scrappy battle and a potential foul-fest. And with the top-two teams for cards in the Championship embroiled, roll the dice on a busy afternoon for Stephen Martin.
Stoke top the card charts in the second tier, averaging 2.5 cards per game. While the Owls aren’t far behind on 2.4 in joint-second. They also both sit in the top six for fouls per match, with little between them at around 12.5.
Wednesday won December’s low-quality affair 1-0 with a stoppage-time goal from Anthony Musaba. The referee that day was David Coote – sorry, I can’t go five mins without talking about him – showed seven yellows. That was a 4-3 split in the Owls favour, so these two could kick lumps out of each other on that showing.
The man in the middle this time around is the muscular Stephen Martin and it should help us is that he’s good for cards, averaging 4.9 this season.
Obviously we can cherry pick through some of Martin’s numbers but the eye is drawn to two games in 2024. The first one was a similar relegation six-pointer between QPR and Huddersfield that saw the hosts pick up four cards to the Terriers’ three – so a 4-3 split.
Then last month there was the particularly spiky game that saw Millwall pick up four of the seven cards in their visit to Leeds. So, when on a going day, Martin can certainly mete out the discipline.
I’m going to take both teams to receive over two cards at 3.40 using the Bet365 bet builder feature. This just has to be tight with what’s at stake. Wednesday have seen 3+ cards in seven of their last 11 home games. Stoke have done that in five of their last eight away – the three they didn’t saw them collect two.
The Potters went to Swansea on Wednesday and that was quite spicy at times. That saw six yellows, evenly split to have landed this bet. Schumacher’s men also picked up three cards against Huddersfield at home on Easter Monday, while they collected eight cards when they visited QPR earlier in the campaign.
I’ll be at Hillsborough. I don’t know which Stoke will turn up in terms of performance, but one thing I’m expecting is plenty of cards. Players will want to make sure their presence is felt with nothing left at the end of the 90, so every bouncing ball will be competed for wholeheartedly.
Odds via bet365 and Skybet as of 21:00, April 11th. Odds may now differ.
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