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Boxing The Cards Column Tips:Basement Championship Scrap
After landing both of his match picks last weekend, Matt Kirby is back to bring us his favourite cards and bookings tips. We’re heading into the business end of the season in the Premier League and the Championship, with teams battling for promotion and play-off places and to avoid the drop – surely that means cards!
In this article:
- Aston Villa vs Brentford: Over 4 Match Cards Both Teams 2+ Cards Each
- Norwich vs Ipswich: Leif Davis To Be Booked
- QPR vs Sheffield Wednesday: Both Teams Over 1 Second-Half Card
The Data from the Premier League, Championship, League One and League Two: Team Bookings and Referee Data
Liverpool make the trip to old foes Man Utd and it’s Anthony Taylor who has been appointed to that one. Paul Tierney has Man City’s trip to Crystal Palace to kick off the Premier League action. While there’s another opportunity in the top flight for Sam Allison.
In the Championship, Rotherham could be relegated if they lose to fellow strugglers Plymouth. Ollie Langford casts his eye over that huge game. Matt Donohue has the East Anglian derby at Carrow Road. While David Webb once again takes charge of Leicester v Birmingham.
Select Group 2 official Dean Whitestone is by the seaside for Blackpool’s game with Cambridge. Card-happy Charles Breakspear has League One leaders Portsmouth, as they welcome Shrewsbury to Fratton Park.
Bobby Madley and Andy Davies are both in League Two. Meanwhile, the experienced Seb Stockbridge has his second game back after a lay-off. He’s at Prenton Park for Tranmere v Walsall.
Finally, it’s the EFL Trophy final on Sunday from Wembley. It pits League One sides Peterborough and Wycombe against each other, and Scott Oldham has the honour of officiating the showpiece.
Aston Villa vs Brentford: Tensions to Boil Over Once More
England, Premier League, Saturday, April 6th 15:00 (UK)
We start at Villa Park, where Aston Villa welcomes Brentford. The welcome might not be the warmest after how the reverse fixture ended in December.
Let’s roll the clock back to that one, as it saw 10 yellows and two reds issued by David Coote. Brentford had Ben Mee dismissed before Villa’s Boubacar Kamara was given his marching orders.
It was a pretty spiky ending to the game and there’s a feeling that the needle could remain when the sides met on Saturday.
With that in mind, I had to dip my toe into this meeting, especially when I saw Michael Salisbury was appointed. For me, he’s a referee who struggles to control games when there’s an edge, so I’ve got the feeling this could well spill over if we get a repeat of December’s shenanigans.
If we combine over four match cards with both teams to get 2+ cards in a bet builder, it comes back at 2.05. For me, that has to be the way to play it, as there could be several tussles and flashpoints across the pitch during this contest.
Unai Emery’s side average 2.7 cautions per home game – that’s the third-most. And to top it off, Thomas Frank’s men receive 2.8 per away match – the fourth-most. Both rank highly in those home/away metrics. And overall, Villa sit third for yellows per game, with the Bees joint-sixth.
The numbers and history between these two looks solid enough. What’s more, Salisbury took charge of these sides at the Gtech in April 2023. That game saw five cards, with a 3-2 split in Brentford’s favour, which would have seen this bet payout.
Salisbury has been decent for cards in the limited games he’s had this season. He’s shown 4+ in nine of his 12 outings.
His last Premier League game saw a 4-4 card split when Brighton played Nottingham Forest. While on Easter Monday, he was in the Championship for Ipswich v Southampton. That game saw four yellows and a red, which Bet365 would see a split of 3-3 (two for a straight red).
With two teams that don’t get on, enough instigators and a referee who might struggle to keep a lid on things, build a cards-related bet and hope for fireworks.
- Selection: Over 4 Match Cards & Both Teams 2+ Cards (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.05
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10
Leif Davis To Be Booked: Sara to keep Davis busy
England, Championship, Saturday, April 6th, 12:30 (UK)
There’s plenty riding on the East Anglian derby at Carrow Road on Saturday lunchtime. Ipswich continue their charge towards achieving back-to-back promotions. While Norwich are focused on ensuring their place in the play-offs.
Although there were only a couple of cards in the reverse fixture, there have still been plenty of spicy clashes down the years. And with a fair bit riding on this, we could see a heated battle.
Referee Matt Donohue averages 4.3 cards per game and is fresh from dishing out seven in Southampton’s 1-1 draw with Middlesbrough on Good Friday. On his day, he can be superb for cards, so hopefully there’s an edge to this game that sees him forced into acting.
There were a few players to possibly consider. But I feel that Tractor Boys full-back Leif Davis could find himself in the firing line. Quotes of 5.50 for a card on Sky Bet (5.00 on Bet365) are definitely worth a look.
Davis has picked up five cautions this season – all in away games – and will find himself tasked with keeping Gabriel Sara quiet. The Norwich attacker has 22 goals involvements this season (11 goals, 11 assists) and he’s been one of the key influences in this Canaries side in recent months.
So, with Sara fouled 1.3 times per 90 – one of the highest in the Norwich ranks – it’s worth looking at his direct opponent – in this case Davis.
The left-back went from being booked in their away game at Blackburn on Good Friday to scoring and assisting in that huge win over Ipswich on Monday. And with him averaging a foul per game the price looks worth a roll of the dice.
Here at Carrow Road, both visiting Plymouth wing-backs saw yellow, while Sunderland had right-back Trai Hume and right-centre back Jenson Seelt both carded.
While looking into players who have been disciplined against Norwich, I did notice quite a few opposition centre-backs enter the referee’s notebook. That could lead a few to look at Cameron Burgess and Luke Woolfenden, although the pair only have eight yellows between them this season.
Woolfenden has five of those and has a slightly higher fouls per game average, so it’s no shock that he’s the shorter price of the pair. It just felt worth highlighting with the red-hot form of American forward Josh Sargent, who leads the line so well for Norwich.
But at the prices, Davis looks like he could be in for a tough afternoon. So, quotes of 5.50 look tempting enough for a visiting player in a derby.
QPR vs Sheffield Wednesday: Rohl’s rallying cry
England, Championship, Saturday, April 6th, 15:00 (UK)
QPR have managed to climb away from the relegation zone, but Sheffield Wednesday are deep in it. And Owls boss Danny Rohl was clearly unhappy and disappointed with his players after Easter Monday’s defeat at Middlesbrough.
The German coach might have had some harsh words to say, so that could spark a fast start from the Owls in this one. If so, and they have a lead at half-time, expect them to employ the dark arts – there were plenty when the sides met before Christmas.
The reverse fixture saw the R’s leading until late goals in the 86th and 90th minutes saw Wednesday complete the turnaround. But what caught my eye was the card count. In total, there were nine yellows dished out by Andy Davies – usually a low issuer.
That’s a high count, but more importantly, one was in the first half, with eight coming after the break. Of those eight, five went to Wednesday – two after their 94th-minute winner – and three went to Rangers.
With the Owls two points from safety, then any lead they have they’ll look to take their time and run as much time down as possible. If that’s the case, expect the Loftus Road crowd to be on their backs. And although the hosts have a six-point gap to the bottom three, they won’t be looking to get dragged back into the mix.
Overall, QPR average 2.2 cards at home, with Wednesday 2.3 per away game. I’ve just got a feeling this could be quite cagey in the second half with tempers becoming flared.
Graham Scott is in charge. The Select Group 1 official showed five cards on Tuesday in Bournemouth v Crystal Palace – four after the break. And when he’s been in the second tier, some of his games have seen huge card counts:
- Plymouth v Birmingham – seven yellows and one red (1-6 second-half split)
- Southampton v Blackburn – six yellows and one red (2-4 second-half split)
- Stoke v Sunderland – nine yellows (4-2 second-half split)
- Norwich v Leicester – eight yellows (1-3 second-half split)
When on a going day, Scott can certainly deliver. And with this a meeting of two sides still looking for points, we could see him forced into his pocket – especially in the second half.
- Selection: Both Teams Over 1 Second-Half Card
- Best Odds: 3.75
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Odds via bet365 and Skybet as of 20:30, April 4th Odds may now differ.
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