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Horse Racing The Cards Column Tips: MD11 Player Cards, Team Bookings and Referee Data
It’s FA Cup first-round weekend, so this week’s Cards Column from our expert, Matt Kirby, will focus on the Premier League and Championship.
And the great recent form continued with 2.20 and 4.00 winners, including the player pick as Rayan Aït-Nouri entered Anthony Taylor’s notebook in Wolves’ 2-2 draw with Newcastle. So, let’s get stuck into this week’s action.
- Sheffield Utd vs Wolves: Over 3 Match Cards & Sheffield Utd Card in Each Half
- Millwall vs Southampton: Will Smallbone To Be Booked
- Plymouth vs Middlesbrough: Both Teams to Receive 2+ Cards
Odds via bet365 as of 21:00, November 1st, 2023. Odds may now differ.
The Data from the Premier League and the Championship: Team Bookings and Referee Data
Michael Oliver gets the notable appointment to the London derby between leaders Spurs and Chelsea on Monday night. While Stuart Attwell has what could be a spicy affair between Newcastle and Arsenal on Saturday evening.
It’s quite surprising to see Anthony Taylor handed a rare appearance in the Championship. He’s at Deepdale for Preston’s game against Coventry – maybe a punishment following the penalty he gave to Newcastle last Saturday.
Meanwhile, there’s a Championship debut for Sunny Gill who oversees Huddersfield v Watford. While Dean Whitestone has the standout fixture in the second tier between Leicester and Leeds.
Sheffield Utd vs Wolves: Blades to hack away
England, Premier League, Saturday, November 4th, 15:00 (UK)
It’s official! After 10 games, Sheffield Utd have made the worst start in Premier League history, recording just one point and showing a goal difference of -22. The 29 goals they’ve conceded are the most at this point in the season.
So, what does Paul Heckingbottom do now?
Well, hopefully, he continues to ask his players to nibble away at the opposition, because part of the first bet features a Sheff Utd card in each half.
The Blades sit joint-third in the home charts for yellow cards per game, averaging three per 90. And in their five games at Bramall Lane in the league, they’ve seen a total of 15 cautions (six first-half and nine second-half).
If you’d played this bet in those home games, you’d have had a winner in four. The only time it didn’t cop was when they failed to get a card before the break against Everton, in a game that finished with three cards.
But the belief is strong that they’ll see yellow before the break, as Rob Jones is in charge. He’s averaging 2.8 cards in the first half of his games, so is always keen to show who’s in charge. Overall, he’s averaging 6.1 cards per 90 and has shown at least four in seven of his eight outings (88%).
Even talking of cards in the first half, Jones cautioned two Man Utd players in the opening 20 minutes of their EFL Cup tie on Wednesday – not a comp known for its cards.
With Wolves as the visitors, it just looks like there’ll be match cards too. Old Gold average 3.6 cards per away game and sit top of the card charts in the top flight (3.5). They also commit more fouls than any other side (13.7), with the Blades giving away an average of 12.8 free kicks per home game – the joint-second highest amount.
I doubt this one will be for the purists, but it’s got the right ingredients to cook up a card-related punt, with two sides that get stuck in and a ref who metes out the discipline.
- Selection: Over 3 Match Cards & Sheffield Utd Card in Each Half
- Best Odds: 1.87
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Will Smallbone To Be Booked: Saints’ Smallbone to sin
England, Championship, Saturday, November 4th, 15:00 (UK)
Millwall missed out on the play-offs following an end-of-season implosion. Now the Lions languish in 18th place and are still seeking a new manager after Gary Rowett’s departure last month.
It’s been three games in charge for interim boss Adam Barrett, but Millwall are yet to record a win (D2 L1) – although they went close to beating Watford last weekend.
Now the visit of fourth-place Southampton adds a whole new level of difficulty to the hosts’ predicament. But it does serve up something of a punting opportunity with how this could shape up tactically.
Zian Flemming has been a standout player in the second tier since joining Millwall. And the Dutchman has come good in recent weeks, netting four times in his last eight starts, including a stunning strike at Preston.
Flemming’s inclusion in the Millwall line-up would lead me towards a Saints player to pick up a card given he’s the Lions player to draw plenty of fouls, along with George Saville in recent games.
It might be hard to suggest that Barrett’s few games in caretaker charge have seen him release the handbrake – they’ve averaged 11.3 shots per game under him – but a lot of the positives have involved Flemming.
So, with the Saints seeing more cautions than any other Championship side (39), I have to look at someone in a red and white shirt.
The player that stands out at his price is Will Smallbone. The midfielder was playing in more of a ‘10’ position during his loan spell at Stoke last term. But back at St Mary’s, he’s been playing in a deeper role for Russell Martin.
Smallbone picked up his fourth yellow in their last away game at Preston, so is one away from suspension. His price at 5.50 with Bet365 looks quite attractive, very much so for a player who dangles a leg into a challenge.
Here’s hoping for a Millwall break, with Smallbone being the Saints last line of defence. If he comes up against Flemming, the Dutchman’s fleet of foot could be enough to see him draw a foul (or two) from the Irish international.
With Smallbone committing a couple of fouls in games against Preston, Leeds and Rotherham in recent weeks, James Linington – who averages four cards per game – could be taking his name.
Plymouth vs Middlesbrough: Follow card-happy England
England, Championship, Saturday, November 4th, 15:00 (UK)
A referee who has made a strong start in issuing cards this season is Darren England. Now the Select Group 1 official continues on the naughty step after his VAR calamity by overseeing Middlesbrough’s long trip to Plymouth.
England is averaging 7.3 cards per 90 across his four domestic middles this term, with cards tallies of 11, 7 8 & 3. On top of that, he’s awarded around 22 free kicks per game, giving confidence he’s willing to stop games to show cards when necessary.
Now, neither side is generally ill-disciplined, quite the opposite, with Boro seeing the fewest cautions in the Championship (22, as well as one red), while Plymouth have only seen 27 yellows.
However, it seems both sides are picking up more cards in recent weeks than at the start of the campaign. Just take Boro’s four league games last month. Each of those saw themselves and their opponents pick up two cards each – perfect for this bet.
Michael Carrick’s side had a long trip south in midweek, beating League One Exeter in the EFL Cup to book their place in the quarter-finals. That game saw six cards, three for each team. So, if the game state suits – Boro will pick up cards.
The Pilgrims, meanwhile, have seen at least two cards in five of their seven league games at Home Park. And when you take their last six games, they’ve seen those wonderful two cards in each of those, with this bet landing in four of them.
Despite these two not necessarily being great sides for cards, the thing they both do is draw them from opponents. Plymouth’s opposition averages two cards per game, with Boro’s picking up 2.1 per 90 – again, ideal for this bet.
If you read The Cards Column in the early weeks of the season, I pointed out that Plymouth’s Morgan Whittaker and Bali Mumba tend to draw a few fouls in each game. If they drive at this Boro backline, there should be cards.
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