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Boxing The Cards Column EFL Tips: Player Cards, Team Bookings and Referee Data
It’s FA Cup third-round weekend, so we’ve only got a handful of matches to choose from for this week’s cards and booking tips in the EFL.
That means The Cards Column explores League One and League Two, overseen by Matt Kirby as usual.
If the cup competition is more your cup of tea, why not take a look at Jimmy The Punt’s FA Cup Acca Tips.
- Burton vs Wycombe: Burton Over 19.5 Booking Points & Wycombe Over 19.5 Booking Points
- Fleetwood vs Derby: Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu To Be Booked
- Cheltenham vs Portsmouth: Over 29.5 Cheltenham Booking Points & Over 19.5 Portsmouth booking points
Odds via bet365 and William Hill as of 20:30, January 4th. Odds may now differ.
The Data from League One and League Two: Team Bookings and Referee Data
There’s a second EFL game for Richie Watkins when he oversees Swindon v Colchester. It’ll be the U’s’ first game under the Crowley brothers, who were appointed on Thursday.
Elsewhere, Sam Purkiss tends to rule with cards, so is always worth a mention. Charles Breakspear also has a game. He showed 115 booking points in his New Year’s Day assignment between Portsmouth and Stevenage.
Burton vs Wycombe: Card collectors collide
England, League One, Saturday, January 6th, 15:00 (UK)
Two sides at the wrong end of the League One table meet at the Pirelli Stadium. Burton sits in 19th, four points above the drop, with Wycombe a point ahead of the Brewers in 16th.
Wanderers have slipped to just one defeat in their last five, while Burton’s last four league games have only seen five goals. That means this should be a tight game with both sides in need of the points.
With that in mind, cards look the way to go. The sides each average 2.5 cards per game this season and are among the higher collectors in League One. In fact, Burton average 2.7 per home game, which is the joint-most in the division.
Plus, Albion ranks third for fouls at 12.1 per game. Again, take it a step further; they jump to 12.7 fouls at home – the most in League One.
I’ll take both sides to pick up over 19.5 booking points at 2.15 with William Hill. If you’re new to this market, a yellow card is worth 10, a straight red is 25, and a red following a yellow is 35.
The Brewers have seen 20+ booking points in 10 of 12 home league games and 20 of 25 overall. Compare that to Wycombe, who have hit this line in nine of 12 on the road and 19 of 24 combined.
These sides met at Adams Park earlier in the season, resulting in a game that saw 20 booking points for each team. Meanwhile, their meeting here last season saw Deji Oshilaja see red, resulting in Burton collecting 35 booking points to Wycombe’s 20.
In terms of the referee, David Rock has shown at least four cards in 11 of his 15 league games. He’s gone on to dish out 20+ booking points in eight of those. Plus, he’s shown six red cards this season, with three of those coming in his last six outings.
With a tense battle in the offing, it should shape up to see a few cards from Mr Rock. I’ll take the 2.15 play using William Hill’s Build #YourOdds. If you can’t get that, the next best option is 1.91 using Sky Bet’s bet builder trick, where you take the individual team lines.
- Selection: Burton Over 19.5 Booking Points & Wycombe Over 19.5 Booking Points (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.15
- Bookmaker: William Hill
- Stake: 10/10
Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu To Be Booked: Fleetwood man to walk the tightrope
England, League One, Saturday, January 6th, 12:30 (UK)
The televised game in League One is going to be the only match that we’ll get a player cards market for this weekend’s pick. So, it’s to Highbury for Derby’s visit to Fleetwood.
There’s a player I’ve identified in the home dressing room who could find himself in hot water with the referee. Here’s the evidence against him, starting with some team stats.
Fleetwood average 2.3 cards per league game, rank third for fouls committed in home games (12.2), and are in all sorts of strife at the bottom of the table.
They’ll expect an onslaught from the Rams after they slipped to their first defeat in 10 on New Year’s Day against Peterborough.
With Derby looking the most likely side to win this one, a player who could get through a lot of work in the middle of the park is Brendan Sarpong-Wiredu.
The Fleetwood midfielder averages 3.1 tackles per game, while he commits 1.4 fouls per game. The 24-year-old is priced at 3.50 for a card with Bet365, which catches the eye.
He’s picked up three cautions in 11 league appearances this season. That might not sound like a lot, but they’ve all come within his last seven outings. If you go a step further, Sarpong-Wiredu has been carded in three of the last five games he’s played a full 90.
Opposing central midfielders against Derby tend to get booked, adding extra weight to this angle. Peterbourgh’s Hector Kyprianou, Wigan’s Babajide Adeeko, and Lincoln’s Ethan Erhahon have all seen yellow against the Rams recently.
Head-to-head form can sometimes be taken with a pinch of salt. However, they’ve already met twice this season. The league match in August saw three cards each, while there were five more in the EFL Trophy clash before Christmas. The latter of those seeing our man booked in the 35th minute.
While Sarpong-Wiredu didn’t play in August’s league meeting, team-mate Danny Mayor (CM) got booked. As did his second-half replacement Junior Quitirna.
The referee for this one is Ben Speedie. Fleetwood players and fans might remember him from the Shrewsbury game in August, where he showed four yellows and two reds. The Cod Army saw goalkeeper Jay Lynch see red in the first half before being followed by Josh Earl in the 90th minute.
Speedie has history with the hosts, who average a decent number for cards at this level. Plus, we’ve got a player in a position where Derby players can draw free-kicks, as shown by the recent midfielders booked against them, which leads me to this 3.50 selection.
Cheltenham vs Portsmouth: Mather to take centre stage
England, League One, Saturday, January 6th, 15:00 (UK)
With only League One markets available at the time of writing, we’ll complete the preview at Whaddon Road. It’s table-toppers Portsmouth who visit struggling Cheltenham, who are battling for survival.
You might be expecting a mismatch given their league positions, but I feel it could be a robust clash where the referee is heavily involved.
So, let’s start with Simon Mather, who has dished out 4+ cards in 71% of his games. I’ve got him averaging 6.3 cards per 90, which is the most of all the officials to have featured across the leagues this season.
The whistler has shown booking points totals of 70, 65, 80, 60 and 50 in his last five league games. While in three cup ties since the start of November, he’s shown totals of 65, 60 and 100. Some huge numbers there, which attracts me to this game.
Cheltenham rank joint-third for cards at 2.5, with Pompey aren’t far behind at 2.4. And it’s worth pointing out that the hosts have picked up five red cards in the league this season – only Fleetwood (6) have more.
John Mousinho’s side have seen 20+ booking points in 18 league games this term, including nine of 12 on their travels. That’s the first leg of my 2.10 Build #YourOdds double.
The second part is over 29.5 Cheltenham booking points, which equates to three cards or a player being dismissed for a second bookable offence. That’s something they’ve done eight times since Darrell Clarke took over at the end of September.
That might not sound like a huge number, but teams playing Portsmouth have seen 30+ booking points in 15 of 25 League One matches this term (60%).
Both sides rank in the top 10 for fouls committed. The Robins concede 11.6 free-kicks per game, with Pompey at 11. On the flip side, the visitors are the most-fouled side in the league, drawing 12.9 free-kicks per game.
With that in mind, we could see Cheltenham clinging on for as long as possible. Or, if they take the lead, test the patience of the referee by using the dark arts.
And given we’ve got a card-happy referee in Mather, combine these two card angles to get a 2.10 punt. The same angle is only 1.83 using Sky Bet.
- Selection: Over 29.5 Cheltenham Booking Points & Over 19.5 Portsmouth booking points (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.10
- Bookmaker: William Hill
- Stake: 10/10
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