Star-Studded Ghana Under World Cup Pressure

After numerous disastrous displays during AFCON qualification where Ghana couldn’t muster a victory, perhaps this isn’t the time to start siding with them as the Black Stars look ahead to the World Cup in 2026.

It’s Chad and Madagascar up next for Ghana. They’ll likely get a victory over the line at home to group minnows, Chad, but will it be a big enough scoreline to overcome the handicap? Sam Ingram delves a little deeper into Ghana’s current predicament.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Unforgivable AFCON Showing Waves Goodbye To Hughton  

As a national team, Ghana is under severe pressure to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. The Black Stars recently failed to qualify for AFCON – played six, failed to win, scored just three goals in six games and conceded seven times. The qualifying group? Niger, Sudan and Angola. 

They were supposed to saunter through this group. For a nation like Ghana, their AFCON qualifying showing in 2024 was nothing short of unforgivable. 

Chris Hughton, former Brighton manager, was relieved of his duties as Ghana’s head coach following the AFCON qualifying debacle, which he oversaw. Otto Addo, who Houghton originally replaced, is now back as head coach. It’s all a bit of a mess right now. The players are under pressure. The new-ish management team is certainly feeling the heat, too.

The Ghana we see in front of us now is the worst we’ve seen in the last decade if the FIFA World Rankings are to sway your judgment. The Black Stars haven’t ranked so low in ten years. It’s no surprise – Ghana’s only wins in 2024 were successive World Cup qualifying fixtures against Mali and Central African Republic in June.

Despite the trauma of 2024, Otto Addo remains upbeat: “We are in a very, very good position [in the WC qualifying group following 2/2 wins], and we have to really, really, come together as a team. We just had a few days of preparation. We have to surely look a little back on the mistakes we did and also concentrate on our strengths. We have big possibilities. And we have now a big, big possibility to take three points and we must do everything we can to ensure that.”

In March’s international break, Ghana will play Chad (H) and Madagascar (A).

Should We Back Ghana On A Monstrous Handicap?

When deciding whether to execute an Asian Handicap position domestically or on the international scene when assessing if the price is value or not, I always ask myself whether I’d be interested in backing the reverse of the line I’m looking at. In this instance, would I take Ghana -4.0 Asian Handicap? That would require the Ghanaians to win by a margin of five goals. 

The answer is a categoric no. Yes, they have the squad and the players capable in forward areas to rack up a healthy score. The attacking talent is definitely there for Ghana – Semenyo, Kudus, Inaki Williams, and Sulemana from Southampton are all bright and energetic – there’s enough there to blow Chad away on paper. Luckily for Chad, football is not played on paper.

Everything we know about African football, Ghana’s recent form, and the pressure they’ve built for themselves ahead of the March international break, it all acts as a rather obvious deterrent for taking Ghana on a large handicap.

‘Under’ goals is typically a shoo-in selection for most games on the continent at both AFCON and World Cup qualifiers. It’s all very low margin, tight, scrappy affairs. There’s lots of running – it’s very physical, with many nations not possessing the tools to unpick a low block once an opponent retreats.

This Is A Mismatch

I expect Ghana will win. They should win. This is a mismatch. Yet, will they turn up and put in a performance that sees Ghana score at least five goals? If Chad finds the net, then Ghana would need to find six goals for the bet to lose. I’m not so sure.

Seventeen competitive games have passed since Ghana last recorded a two-goal margin victory, let alone a five-goal margin victory needed for this bet to lose. You’d have to go back to the 5-0 win over Ethiopia in 2017  (86 games ago) for the last time Ghana chalked up a five-goal deficit.

Chad haven’t recorded a five-goal margin loss in the last decade. 

Chad’s +4.0 Asian handicap is the biggest Asian handicap of all qualifying nations currently on bet365 for the first round of international fixtures. The next closest is Fiji, away in New Zealand, on a +3.5 line.

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