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Horse Racing Slovenia vs Denmark Prediction: Euro 2024 Team News and Lineups Preview
While most of the focus may be on England vs Serbia in the opening matchday in Euro 2024’s Group C, Matthew O’Regan has his Slovenia vs Denmark prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. Slovenia have it all to do in a tough group, so a positive result in Stuttgart is necessary.
For a deeper dive into Group C: Euro 2024 Group C Preview.
Last updated: June 14th, 2024.
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- Match Result (1X2)
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- Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)
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Denmark vs Slovenia Prediction 1: Great Danes
Euro 2024, Sunday, June 16th, 17:00 (UK)
The first game of Group C sees group underdogs Slovenia face off against Denmark at the MHP Arena, Stuttgart. These sides were actually paired in the same qualifying group, with Kasper Hjulmand’s side edging Slovenia on the head to head basis. These games were both low scoring, with the Danes winning 2-1 in Copenhagen, before securing a 1-1 draw in Ljubljana.
Both these sides averaged 2.9 goals per game in an entertaining group, but goals tend to be at a premium in major tournaments, with last tournament seeing 2.78 goals per match – the highest total since 1976.
Denmark will be hoping to match their heroic Euro 2020 campaign, where they reached the semi-finals before losing in extra time to defeated finalists England. Meanwhile, Slovenia is competing in their second-ever Euros tournament as an independent nation. Their previous appearance in 2000 saw them crash out in the group stages without winning a game.
Denmark is priced at 1.72 to win this game, a generous price given the contrast in the ability of the sides. However, to eke out more value from this game, adding under 5 goals boosts the odds to 1.95. Under five goals copped in the last ten Denmark outings and the last eight for Slovenia – including both meetings in the group.
- Slovenia vs Denmark Prediction 1: Denmark Win and Under 5 Goals
- Best Odds: 1.95
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10
Slovenia vs Denmark Prediction 2: Low scoring affair
In their ten qualifying games, Slovenia saw ‘BTTS NO’ in 5/10 games. Despite scoring in the 2-1 loss at Copenhagen against Denmark, Matjaz Kek’s side had two shots, both of these coming from set pieces outside the box. The 1-1 draw in the Slovenian capital saw Slovenia generate just 0.38 xG from six shots.
Denmark saw BTTS NO in 4/10 qualifying games. However, as mentioned this group was extremely entertaining with each team going for the jugular in matches. In the Danes disappointing World Cup campaign, they scored just one goal, with two of their three games seeing BTTS NO. Half of their nations league games saw BTTS NO.
An added caveat to this bet is the Euro format. With four of the six third placed teams qualifying for the knockouts stages, I expect plenty of tedious games, as teams set up for draws or to preserve their goal difference.
Slovenia also play England in the final group game. With Gareth Southgate’s side expected to win their first two games of the group, we could see a heavily rotated Three Lions side – one Slovenia may fancy nicking an unlikely result against.
Therefore, it may be in their best interest to be pragmatic in their first game against Denmark, leading to a cagey, slow-tempo game.
With this article being an Early Bird write-up, final squads aren’t announced, and most markets aren’t priced up. However, Rasmus Højlund enjoyed a solid Premier League debut campaign, scoring 10 in 25 starts. He also has seven goals in 12 caps for Denmark and is expected to lead the line in the opener. If he opens odds-against – as I expect he will, he provides a tempting goalscoring play.
Player to watch: Benjamin Sesko
- Nation: Hungary
- Club: RB Leipzig
- Position: Striker
- Selection: Sesko to Score or Assist
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Odds: 3.25
Before the attention shifts to Serbia vs England in the late game, Group C’s other qualifying hopefuls will be fighting for their tournament future in the middle match on Sunday. Slovenia vs Denmark may not pull the same viewing figures as the game that follows but it could be a good match. Both teams averaged 2.90 total match goals in qualifying and 10 of Denmark’s 16 matches at the Euros since 2000 have gone over 2.5 goals.
If the goals start to flow, Slovenia’s hopes will rest on the shoulders of their emerging superstar. Benjamin Sesko has enjoyed a fine season with RB Leipzig. He joined the Bundesliga side in the summer alongside forward Loïs Openda and formed a lethal strike partnership with the Belgian, grabbing a combined total of 38 Bundesliga goals.
With his national team, Sesko is the main man. He scored five goals and assisted two more in nine matches in qualifying for this tournament. He’ll be a handful for this Danish backline. Despite a lofty frame of 6 foot 5 inches, Sesko is surprisingly quick and agile. He’s two-footed with excellent ball-striking. He won’t need a second invitation to pull the trigger and test 37-year-old Kasper Schmeichel in the Danish goal.
Sesko will also drop back and help the build-up. He’ll likely play up top with another capable goalscorer in Andraz Sporar with former Atalanta forwar Josip Ilicic an experienced option off the bench. Adding an assist or goal contribution this pick offers the best value.
Slovenia vs Denmark Euro 2024 Team News and Possible Lineups: Premier League heavy Denmark side
It’s hard to read too much into the Denmark side before they play their friendlies, but one shock exclusion is Celtic midfielder Matt O’Riley. The 23-year-old had a stellar season with 37 goal contributions in 49 games and has been touted for a big summer move. However, Kasper Hjulmand has decided against calling him up.
Denmark will most likely stick with their back five formations, with Joachim Maehle a constant threat on the right flank. The midfield trio all play in the Premier League, with Manchester United’s Christian Eriksen, Brentford’s Christian Norgaard and Tottenham’s Piere Emile Hojberg expected to make up an experienced midfield, with a rejuvenated Andreas Christensen slotting back in at centre back, despite impressing in midfield for Barcelona. Manchester United’s Rasmus Højlund grew into the season after a tough start and is expected to lead the line, with either Yousef Poulsen or Jonas Wind as his strike partner.
Despite being somewhat minnows on the international stage, Slovenia has a strong record with goalkeepers, with the now-retired Samir Handanovic and current Atletico Madrid number one Jan Oblak donning the gloves in recent years. 25-year-old Udinese centre-back Jaka Bijol is the stand-out in an experienced back line. Adam Cerin and Timi Elsnik provide steel and tenacity in the midfield for Matjaz Kek.
The star of the show is undoubtedly Arsenal target Benjamin Sesko. The rangy striker boasted 14 goals from 17 Bundesliga starts in a stellar debut campaign. He has been touted for a big-money move to the Premier League, and it is clear to see why. The 21-year-old will be instrumental in anything Slovenia does.
Slovenia possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Zaletel, Blažič, Bijol, Janza; Mlakar, Lovric, Ćerin, Stojanovic; Sesko, Vipotnik
Denmark possible starting lineup:
Schmeichel; Mæhle, Anderson, Vestergaard, Christensen, Kristensen; Eriksen, Hojberg, Nørgaard; Wind, Hojlund
Euro 2024 Match Stats: Dominant Danes
- Slovenia have only managed to avoid defeat once in the six meetings
- The last three games have seen BTTS
- Denmark have scored at least twice in 5/6 games between the sides
- Slovenia have never made it through the group stage of a major tournament
- Slovenia have never beaten Denmark in their six previous meetings in all competitions, losing on five occasions (D1). They were in the same qualifying group for UEFA EURO 2024: their two encounters produced a draw in Ljubljana (1-1) followed by a Denmark home win (2-1).
- Slovenia collected seven wins and 22 points in UEFA EURO 2024 qualifying, both records for them in a major tournament qualifying campaign (World Cup + EURO).
- Denmark’s 33 matches at the UEFA EURO have produced on average 2.79 goals (42 for, 50 against), that’s the highest ratio amongst the 12 teams to have played more than 20 matches in the competition.
Slovenia Group C Euro 2024 Fixtures: Tough Group for Slovenia
- Vs Denmark (Stuttgart)
- Vs Serbia (Munich)
- Vs England (Cologne)
Denmark Group C Euro 2024 Fixtures: Chance for strong start
- Vs Slovenia (Stuttgart)
- Vs England (Frankfurt)
- Vs Serbia (Munich)
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