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Horse Racing Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
Our expert, Matthew O’Regan, turns his attention to Spain and gives us his Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid predictions, team news, standings and lineups preview. It is a meeting that Sevilla have failed to win in the last five competitive meetings, so Los Nervionenses will be hopeful to break their duck. In this preview, I have my three best bets from what is sure to be a feisty encounter in La Liga.
If a Podcast or Youtube video is more your thing, why not check out our new bettingexpert Football Podcast here, where Dan Jenkins and Sam Ingram provide their most-fancied selections ahead of the weekend.
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Prediction, Team News, Standings and Lineups Preview
- Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Tip 1: Atletico Madrid To Win
- Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Tip 2: Over 2.5 Goals
- Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Tip 3: Alvaro Morata to Score
In this article:
- Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Team News and Possible Lineups
- The Predicted La Liga Standings
- Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Match Stats
- How to watch Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid
- Safer Gambling
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Tip 1: Colchoneros to Continue Dominance
Spain, La Liga , Sunday February 11th ,17:30 (UK)
Despite seven Europa League trophies in the last 17 years, Sevilla are in real danger of relegation and are currently outside the relegation zone on goal difference. Quique Sanchez Flores’ side are currently winless in five in the league- winning just three games out of their 22 in the league.
Atletico Madrid, on the other hand, is chasing a 12th La Liga title but faces tough competition from Spanish juggernauts Real Madrid and Barcelona, as well as surprise minnows Girona. Diego Simeone’s side sits just x points off the lead and will see a game at a struggling Sevilla side as the perfect opportunity to gain on the leading pack.
The pair have already met twice this season, both at the Civitas Metropolitan Stadium and both ending 1-0 to the hosts. The league meeting was decided by Marcos Llorente, with the Spaniard scoring one minute after coming off the bench. It was a tetchy affair, with Sevilla picking up three yellows to Atleti’s seven. Calgar Söyüncü was also sent off for the hosts after 70 minutes.
The cup game was equally as tetchy, with Sevilla picking up six cards and Madrid receiving four. Memphis Depay’s 79th-minute winner was the difference after Antoine Griezmann missed a first-half penalty.
With Atletico Madrid unbeaten in six in all competitions – including five wins, they are rightly favourites for this tie. The added caveat is that Simeone’s side have won both meetings already this season, and they look good value to make it three in a row.
- Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Tip 1: Atletico Madrid to Win
- Best Odds: 2.00
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Tip 2: Change in attacking fortune for Madrid
Spain, La Liga, Sunday, February 11th, 17:30 (UK)
Under Diego Simeone, Atletico Madrid have developed a reputation as a defensive team, with the Argentine prioritising pragmatism and defensive resilience to grind out results. However, this season has seen a new Atleti side and one that ranks third in the league for games that see over 2.5 goals (14/23.) With 45 goals scored and 25 conceded in 23 games, Atletico Madrid games are averaging over three goals a game.
Simeone has favoured a 3-5-2 this season, with Marcos Llorente and Rodrigo Riquelme excelling as marauding wing-backs. Saul Niguez, Koke and Rodrigo De Paul add skill and tenacity to the midfield and do the dirty work that allows more creative players to flourish.
The strike force of Alvaro Morata and Antoine Griezmann has combined for 24 goals between them. Simeone seems to have found the perfect balance, and this has resulted in Madrid boasting the fourth-best attacking record in the league.
Away from home, Atletico Madrid are averaging a 1.38 xG – the fifth highest in the league.
Sevilla have seen over 2.5 goals in exactly 50% of their games, scoring 27 and conceding 36 in 22 games for an average of 2.86 goals per game.
Despite their lowly league standing, Sevilla ranks quite high in the underlying metrics and sits third in the league for xG, accumulating an average of 1.67 per game. This number rises to 1.82 when at home.
- Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Tip 2: Over 2.5 Goals
- Best Odds: 1.90
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Tip 3: Prolific Morata
Spain, La Liga, Sunday , February 11th 17:30 (UK)
Atletico Madrid’s leading man this season has been Alvaro Morata. The 31-year-old has 13 goals in 17 league starts. On top of this, the Spaniard has scored five in the Champions League, one in the Copa Del Rey and four for Spain. With 23 goals to his name already, it is fair to say he is a man in form.
Morata is averaging 3.08 shots per 90, with 1.57 of these being on target. On top of this, he is averaging 0.58 xG per game.
He faces off against a Sevilla side who are massively out of form and have conceded 19 goals in 12 home games.
Before this season, Morata had scored five in his last five starts against Sevilla. He will be hoping to add to his tally on Sunday.
- Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Tip 3: Alvaro Morata to Score
- Best Odds: 2.62
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 6/10
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Predictions odds via bet365 as at 11:59 , February 11th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Team News and Possible Lineups: Injuries riddling both sides
Sevilla could be without up to seven players in their starting lineup due to injury. In defence, centre backs Nemanja Gudelj, Tanguy Nianzou and Kike Salas look set to miss out. Yellow-card magnet Eric Lamela is also rumoured to be out, as are strikers Mariano Diaz and Alejo Veliz and winger Dodi Lukebakio.
However, Flores will be happy to welcome back the experience of Suso and Sergio Ramos from suspension.
With a massive Copa Del Rey Semi-Final first leg against Atletico Bilbao mid-week, it will be interesting to see how Diego Simeone sets up his starting lineup up on Sunday. Their defensive is set to be weakened, with Jose Maria Giminez and César Azpilicueta absent through injury. Thomas Lemar has been out injured since September.
Sevilla possible starting lineup:
Nyland; Navas, Ramos, Bade, Pedrosa; Suso, Soumare, Sow, Ocampos; Romero, En-Nesyri
Atletico Madrid possible starting lineup:
Oblak; Savic, Witsel, Hermoso; Riquelme, Saul, Koke, De Paul, Llorente; Morata, Griezmann
The Predicted Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid La Liga Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the La Liga standings ahead of the Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid, currently 17th vs 4th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid Standings
| POSITION | CLUB | GAMES | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 76.7 | 32.2 | 44.6 | 85.1 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 38 | 24.5 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 82.4 | 43.9 | 38.5 | 81.7 |
| 3 | Girona | 38 | 23.6 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 82.2 | 51.7 | 30.6 | 78.4 |
| 4 | Ath Bilbao | 38 | 21.9 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 71.0 | 38.4 | 32.6 | 74.2 |
| 5 | Atl. Madrid | 38 | 22.4 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 72.5 | 44.2 | 28.3 | 73.1 |
| 6 | Sociedad | 38 | 16.0 | 12.3 | 9.8 | 55.2 | 41.8 | 13.4 | 60.1 |
| 7 | Valencia | 38 | 15.3 | 9.6 | 13.1 | 46.8 | 43.8 | 3.0 | 55.4 |
| 8 | Betis | 38 | 13.5 | 14.2 | 10.2 | 47.0 | 46.3 | 0.6 | 54.9 |
| 9 | Getafe | 38 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 48.7 | 54.0 | -5.3 | 48.8 |
| 10 | Alaves | 38 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 16.1 | 42.6 | 49.5 | -6.9 | 47.2 |
| 11 | Las Palmas | 38 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 16.7 | 35.9 | 42.8 | -6.9 | 47.1 |
| 12 | Vallecano | 38 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 14.2 | 41.4 | 51.2 | -9.8 | 46.8 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 38 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 16.9 | 46.8 | 58.4 | -11.6 | 46.5 |
| 14 | Celta | 38 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 17.0 | 46.3 | 57.7 | -11.4 | 41.0 |
| 15 | Mallorca | 38 | 8.4 | 15.4 | 14.2 | 37.9 | 48.2 | -10.3 | 40.6 |
| 16 | Villarreal | 38 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 19.3 | 52.5 | 75.4 | -22.9 | 39.0 |
| 17 | Sevilla | 38 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 19.0 | 45.6 | 61.8 | -16.2 | 35.0 |
| 18 | Granada | 38 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 22.2 | 42.2 | 70.9 | -28.7 | 29.5 |
| 19 | Cadiz | 38 | 5.5 | 11.9 | 20.5 | 30.2 | 61.5 | -31.3 | 28.6 |
| 20 | Almeria | 38 | 5.5 | 9.9 | 22.6 | 44.7 | 74.8 | -30.2 | 26.4 |
Match Stats: Dominant Atletico
- Sevilla have failed to beat Atletico in the last five competitive meetings
- Sevilla average 3.0 yellow cards per home game
- Atletico average 2.55 yellow cards per away game
- Atletico are the fourth highest scorers in the league
How To Watch
- Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid, La Liga
- Date and Time: Sunday, February 11th 17:30 (UK)
- How to Watch or Stream on TV (UK): VIAPLAY
SAFER GAMBLING
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