Serie A 2023/24 Betting Odds: Winners, Top Six, Relegation, and Top Scorers

Serie A Betting Odds Intro

Napoli ended a 33-year wait to win their third Scudetto in spectacular fashion last season. They enjoyed a blistering start to the campaign, dropping just four points in the first 15 games. With new manager Rudi Garcia at the helm, can they achieve a historical back-to-back domestic success?

Last season’s Champions League finalists, Inter, are currently the bookies favourites, but Juventus, who are not playing any European competition due to the ban imposed by UEFA, might also be serious contenders for this year’s Serie A title, as long as their manager Massimiliano Allegri can (finally) give them a precise style of play. The Bianconeri are building an experienced and physical side: two attributes that are often decisive to prevail in Serie A.

In this article:

• Serie A Winner Odds
• Serie A Top Four Odds
• Serie A Top Scorer Odds
• Serie A Biggest Longshot Value Odds
• Serie A Relegation Odds

Serie A Winner Odds: Neroazzurri to get their second star?

Inter’s hopes of winning the Scudetto last season were dented by a disastrous start of the campaign when they lost four of their first eight matches. But, despite the injuries to a couple of their key players, Simone Inzaghi managed to find the right balance towards the end of the campaign, and the Neroazzurri won seven of the last eight Serie A matches, knocking out AC Milan in the Champions League semi-final, and holding their own against Manchester City in Istanbul.

Inter have won the last two Coppa Italia, and the objective of this season is to be crowned champions of Italy again. By doing so, they’d achieve their 20th title and add a second golden star on their shirt.

There’s been a good deal of player turnover this summer, with the likes of Marcelo Brozovic, André Onana, Romelu Lukaku and Edin Dzeko departing. Some argue the Milanese have lost valuable experience – perhaps too much? While Inter are still searching for their new centre-forward, their additions in midfield look impressive. Davide Frattesi signed from Sassuolo, and Lazar Samardžić, from Udinese, are both young, energetic and skilful players that can provide that touch of unpredictability and ‘magic’ that Inter sometimes lacked last year, especially against those Serie A sides who defended deep.

Inter’s strengths remain a solid group of Italian internationals, a well-drilled 3-5-2 system and a plethora of players that can cover more than one role. Repeating last season’s success in Europe might be very difficult, but, at the moment, they look the stronger and more complete side in Italy’s top flight.

• Selection: Inter to win Serie A
• Odds: 3.25
• Bookmaker: Betfred
• Stakes: 7/10

Serie A Winner Odds via Betfred as at 3.25pm, 5th August 2023. Odds may now differ.

Serie A Top Four Odds: Mou will return Roma where they belong

In his third season in charge in the capital city, José Mourinho can count on a trusted group of players that he led to two consecutive European finals – the UEFA Europa League and the UEFA Conference League. Mourinho has inherited a team that lacked conviction and transformed it into a much more cynical and ruthless side.

In fact, Roma’s biggest improvement under the Portuguese manager has not been the style of play (actually, last season, they played worse than what people expected) but the mentality. In the summer, they recruited experienced players such as Evan N’Dicka and Houssem Aouar, but they are still looking for a new goal scorer because of Tammy Abraham’s injury.

Roma have become the masters of tight margins, both in Serie A and in Europe: last year, they won 14 games by the odd goal and kept 21 clean sheets. They know how to defend and grind out results when it matters, and this experience might be precious in a tight race to qualify for next year’s Champions League. The Giallorossi haven’t played in Europe’s top competition since 2018/2019. In the past two seasons, they’ve finished sixth in the domestic table, collecting 63 points in both occasions, seven points away from the fourth spot.

This season, they might finish above their city rivals, Lazio, whose energies will inevitably be drained by the Champions League campaign. On the other hand, AC Milan ended last season in fifth position, if we don’t take into account Juventus’ points deduction. I don’t remember a side to defend the Scudetto so poorly after clinching it only twelve months before.

The Rossoneri look like an interesting proposition, with many new young players (Okafor, Reijnders and Chukwueze), but they don’t represent a great betting value at 1.73 on Skybet.

So here’s my Serie A top-four prediction: Inter, Juventus, Napoli and Roma.

• Selection: Roma to finish in the top 4
• Odds: 2.25
• Bookmaker: Bet365
• Stakes: 8/10

Serie A Top Four Odds via Bet365 as at 3.25pm, 5th August 2023. Odds may now differ.

Serie A Top Scorer Odds: A tight run between three young strikers

Victor Oshimen scored almost a third of all Napoli goals in Serie A last season (26 for Nigerian striker out of 77 in total) and was crowned “capocannoniere” (top scorer).

A truly impressive number, considering he only scored two penalties and his xG was 21.3. Oshimen enjoyed a season with no injuries, and playing alongside Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, the player who contributed to the most shot-creating actions (136) in Italy, certainly contributed. However, Oshimen might miss up to six games between January and February 2024 as he will feature in the Africa Cup of Nations, a reason why he might not be able to replicate last season’s tally.

In the last ten seasons, only twice the top scorer in Serie A netted more than 30 goals: Gonzalo Higuain in 2015/2016, and Ciro Immobile, in 2019/2020, both scoring 36 times. Immobile has been the “capocannoniere” in three of the last six seasons. Still, last year he recorded his worst-ever tally of only 12 league goals (including four penalties and an xG of 14.2) since joining Lazio. Maurizio Sarri’s style of play might not be the best suited for the 33-year-old striker.

Inter finished the season with the 2nd best attack (71 goals, only six less than Napoli), and Lautaro Martinez scored 21 goals, equalling his Serie A record achieved the previous season. The Argentine is Inter’s captain and leader, and without Romelu Lukaku taking penalties, he will have more chances to find the back of the net. The Neroazurri have added quality in midfield and will be able to produce plenty of scoring opportunities. Last season, they were the top side for total shots per 90 (16.45), as well as Serie A-leading figures in the xG stakes.

On the opposite side of Milan, the likes of Rafael Leao and Olivier Giroud will almost certainly finish the season in double figures, but they’d both have to perform well above their recent standards to outscore the aforementioned strikers.

A possible surprise might be Dušan Vlahović, provided Juventus decide to keep hold of him. He comes on the back of a disappointing season, with only ten goals scored in Serie A, but at only 23 years of age, he has huge potential. So far, he has enjoyed a positive pre-season, marked by a goal against Real Madrid, but his future in Turin is not certain: Massimiliano Allegri has made no secret of preferring a physically stronger and more experienced centre-forward like Romelu Lukaku.

But if Juventus play to Vlahović’s strengths, providing plenty of crosses (and both Timothy Weah and Filip Kostić are excellent in this) and displaying a more offensive attitude, the Serbian striker could turn out to be a very smart betting pick.

If you can access BetRivers in the US, then Rafael Leao to score over 14.5 goals at 2.10 is a handy alternative.

• Selection: Rafael Leao to score 15+ goals
• Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 8/10

Serie A Top Scorer Odds via bet365 as at 4.45pm, 5th August 2023. Odds may now differ.

Serie A Biggest Longshot Value Odds: Torino could achieve the ‘impossible’ dream

Torino have never played in the Champions League and since their return in Serie A in 2012-2013 their highest final position in the table has been seventh in only two occasions. Having played in European competitions only twice in the last 30 years, a qualification for the next edition of the UEFA Conference League would already be regarded as a success for the Granata. In the last two seasons, under the management of Ivan Jurić, they have acquired a precise identity, regaining their sturdiness and never say die attitude that made them stand out during their glory years. Last year Torino coped very well with the absence of a recognised number 9, and showcased a very good style of play and a multitude of options to create scoring chances.

Behind their top scorer, the Paraguayan Antonio Sanabria (12 goals), other twelve players found the net and helped Torino to take some prestigious scalps: the wins against AC Milan (twice, the second at San Siro in Coppa Italia), Lazio and Fiorentina did not happen by chance nor luck. Last season’s away form was impressive, they collected 31 points, one more than Inter and Juventus, as they looked very comfortable defending in their 3-5-2 shape and clinical on the counter.

This summer they have further strengthened the team with the arrivals of Raoul Bellanova, from Inter, and Adrien Tameze, from Verona who complete a young, dynamic, side where 23-years-old Alessandro Buongiorno, 22-years old Samuele Ricci and Ivory Coast international Wilfred Singo provide plenty of qualify and energy.

It was 1991/1992 the last time Torino finished in Serie A top six, but, at this price, it looks a really interesting pick. After all, stranger things have happened in football, just ask Claudio Ranieri.

• Selection: Torino to finish in the top four
• Odds: 25.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 4/10

Serie A Biggest Longshot Value Odds via bet365 as at 4.45pm, 5th August 2023. Odds may now differ.

Serie A Relegation Odds: Verona might suffer after last season late escape

Twelve points in the last 11 matches were enough for Verona to finish level with Spezia with 31 points and play the relegation play-off, which they eventually won 3-1. In the summer of 2022, Verona lost its three leading players and goal scorers (Gianluca Caprari, Antonín Barák and Giovanni Simeone). For the entire domestic campaign, they struggled to create chances. They finished the season with the worst home attack (only 11 goals scored), winning only one game at the Marcantonio Bentegodi.

After such a tumultuous season, the club changed manager (again!) and hired Marco Baroni, who achieved historic salvation with Lecce. Will Baroni be able to bring the defensive organisation and discipline to a Verona side that looked erratic and vulnerable (59 goals conceded, the sixth worse defence in Italy)?

Since 2007/2008, at least one of the newly promoted sides from Serie B has been relegated straightaway. Despite having won Serie B last year, Frosinone are the favourites (1.50 on William Hill) to get relegated because they look like a very changed side from last season and, similar to Verona, might lack the goals that can keep them up. In this respect, Lecce might also struggle; their top scorer last season was Brazilian midfielder Gabriel Strefezza, with eight goals, as they scored only 33 in the entire campaign. Their strength was the defensive organisation ( conceding only 46, the ninth-best defence in Serie A, keeping five clean sheets). Still, it remains to be seen whether they can adapt to play the attacking style of football that new manager Roberto D’Aversa likes.

On the other hand, Genoa, who finished seven points behind Frosinone in Serie B, seem to have got enough in attack, mainly thanks to the signing of Italy’s number 9, the Argentina-born Mateo Retegui.

Claudio Ranieri returned to Cagliari after 32 years to get the Sardinian promoted to Italy’s top division and has assembled a very experienced side. Ranieri managed to save Sampdoria in 2021 and should be able to do the same this season.

So here’s my relegation prediction: Frosinone, Verona and one between Lecce (you’ll find odds of 2.10 on EuroBet, and 2.00 on William Hill) and Genoa (2.60).

• Selection: Verona to be relegated
• Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: William Hill
• Stakes: 8/10

Serie A Relegation Odds via William Hill as at 5pm, 5th August 2023. Odds may now differ.

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