Scott Thornton’s Premier League Props: Six Best Bets

Scott Thornton brings you his six best bets for the Premier League as the season enters its final stage.

There is no early kick-off this weekend so the action gets underway at 15:00 with Brentford vs Brighton and Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth. Late on Saturday, Aston Villa host Newcastle in what promises to be an intriguing clash. On Sunday, we look ahead to Ipswich vs Arsenal before Liverpool have the chance to relegate Leicester. Monday Night Football sees Tottenham square off against Nottingham Forest. 

In this article:

• Brentford vs Brighton: Over 25.5 Shots In The Match
• Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth: Under 27.5 Shots In The Match
• Aston Villa vs Newcastle: Over 23.5 Shots In The Match
• Ipswich vs Arsenal: Under 31.5 Throws In The Match
• Leicester vs Liverpool: Under 8.5 Shots For Leicester
• Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest: Over 19.5 Tackles For Nottingham Forest

Acca odds: 37.94

Brentford vs Brighton: The Bees Vulnerabilities Mean Entertainment

England, Premier League, Saturday, 19th April, 15:00 (UK)

Brentford were in exceptional form in front of their own fans at the start of the season. They won seven of their first eight league games at the GTech Community Stadium, drawing once. Since then, they have failed to win any of their eight home matches in the Premier League, which has left them 11th.

Brighton are five points and one place ahead of Brentford coming into this clash. The Seagulls were unable to win at home against a lacklustre Leicester side in their last match. They need a win against the Bees to keep their European hopes alive. 

The Bees’ matches have been some of the most shot-friendly in the division with an average of 28.88 per game. Thomas Frank’s side have looked vulnerable and are conceding the second most shots in England’s top flight. Therefore, we are backing over 25.5 shots in the match when they take on a very capable Brighton side.

There have been plenty of attempts in Brighton’s recent clashes with Brentford. When the teams met in December, there were 32 shots in the match. Over 25.5 attempts has won in the last five head-to-heads with those games seeing an average of 31 shots. Both teams have shown willingness to attack and it usually makes for an entertaining clash. 

• Selection: Over 25.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth: A Fascinating Tactical Battle

England, Premier League, Saturday, 19th April, 15:00 (UK)

Crystal Palace were beaten 5-2 by Manchester City last weekend despite taking a two-goal lead. The Eagles were enjoying a run of five games without defeat before making the trip to the Etihad. Oliver Glasner’s side’s slow start to the season makes European qualification unlikely but they will still want to perform well in the remaining weeks of the Premier League season.

Bournemouth ended their winless run with a narrow 1-0 victory over Fulham on Monday Night Football. Andoni Iraola’s side are now 8th in the league, which could be enough to secure a palace in Europe. 

Both of these teams are capable of holding onto the ball and it could be a case of them cancelling each other out here. As a result, we are backing under 27.5 shots in the match. This bet landed with ease in Palace’s last home match against Brighton which saw just 19 shots. The Eagles were priced at odds of 2.48 on the 1×2 market for that game, which is very similar to this game (2.40).

There have been 27 shots or less in four of the last five meetings between these sides. Those have seen an average of 22.4 shots. Bournemouth’s last away game saw just 19 attempts so the line looks a little high here. 

• Selection: Under 27.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Aston Villa vs Newcastle: Key Clash in Champions League Battle

England, Premier League, Saturday, 19th April, 17:30 (UK)

Aston Villa made a valiant effort as they attempted to fight back against PSG on Tuesday night but eventually fell short. Unai Emery’s side needs to dust itself off and go again ahead of this crucial Premier League fixture. The Villains are just one point off the Champions League places.

The Magpies are enjoying life at the moment. They lifted the EFL Cup last month and are sitting 4th in the table. Newcastle beat Manchester United 4-1 on home turf last weekend. They face Crystal Palace on  Wednesday night, which could give them some breathing room in the race for a top-five finish. 

The Villains’ home matches have seen an average of 25.69 shots per game, comfortably above the line of 23.5 set bet the bookmakers here. There have been 24 shots or more in their last five Premier League outings at Villa Park in this campaign.

Newcastle’s away matches have seen an average of 24.19 attempts. Their recent head-to-heads also show promise for overs backers. There were 26 shots when the teams met earlier in the season. Our bet has won the last four times that they’ve faced Villa.

• Selection: Over 23.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Ipswich vs Arsenal: The Gunners in Cruise Control

England, Premier League, Sunday, 20th April, 14:00 (UK)

Ipswich are 14 points from safety heading into matchday 33. Staying in the top flight after back-to-back promotions was always going to be a tall order but Kieran McKenna will be disappointed with just how far off the pace his team have been. The Tractor Boys have just one win in their last 10 league games.

Arsenal were aiming for the title at the start of the season but inconsistency has cost them in their race against Liverpool. Mikel Arteta’s side had to settle for a draw at home to Brentford last weekend after choosing to focus on their Champions League game at the Santiago Bernabeu.

The Tractor Boy’s home matches have seen an average of 32.25 throws but we are tipping under 31.5 in this one. The bet landed with ease in the reverse fixture as the match saw just 26 throws. Ipswich’s recent home game against Manchester City has just 19 throws. Pep Guardiola’s side’s matches rank just below Arsenal’s in terms of throw-ins.

There have been 31 throws or less in four of Arseanl’s last five Premier League away games.  Their matches have seen an average of 29.75 throws over the course of the whole season, the fourth fewest in the division. Arteta’s men are capable of holding onto possession and playing through the press, which helps lower the count. 

• Selection: Under 31.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Leicester vs Liverpool: The Foxes Unable to Catch the Reds

England, Premier League, Sunday, 20th April, 16:30 (UK)

Leicester are another team who are nailed on for the drop. The decision to sack Steve Cooper and replace him with Ruud Van Nsitelrooy hasn’t paid dividends. The Dutchman has managed to win just two of his 19 league games in charge of the Foxes, losing 15. Their relegation could be confirmed this weekend if they are unable to get a result against Liverpool.

Arne Slot has enjoyed a magnificent first season in English football. His team are coasting towards the title thanks to a 13-point lead over Arsenal. Mohamed Salah’s contract renewal is more good news for the club. Liverpool’s only aim now is to win the league as early as possible. 

The Foxes should struggle to lay a glove on the visitors here so we are backing them to have under 8.5 shots. They had just four when the teams met at Anfield earlier in the season and kept 31% possession. Leicester have failed to reach the nine-shot mark in four of their last five Premier League home games.

Liverpool have conceded the second-fewest shots in the division with an average of 9.66. They tend to concede even fewer shots against Leicester. This bet has won in the last eight head-to-heads. 

• Selection: Under 8.5 Shots For Leicester (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest: Ange’s Side Continues to Force Tackles

England, Premier League, Sunday, 20th April, 14:00 (UK)

Tottenham are unable to salvage anything from their Premier League season. Ange Postecoglou is under intense pressure and it’s unclear whether or not he will still be at the club next season. They have just one win in their last six league outings and sit 15th in the table.

Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, are flying high. They are on course to qualify for the Champions League but there is still work to be done. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side were beaten 1-0 by Everton last weekend, meaning the gap to 7th place is now just three points. 

Spurs commit bodies forward under Postecoglou and this means they force plenty of tackles. Tottenham are the most tackled team in the league, forcing an average of 22.62 per game. Their opponents have made 20 tackles or more in seven of their last eight home league games with an average of 25.13.

Forest’s tackles numbers are more modest but they still make an average of 18.22, the seventh most in the league. Nuno’s side made 21 tackles when they faced Tottenham earlier in the season. 

• Selection: Over 19.5 Tackles For Nottingham Forest (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Premier League Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 10:02, April 16th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.