Scott Thornton’s Premier League Props: Six Best Bets

Scott Thornton brings you a prop bet for each of the televised Premier League matches and one more.

The action gets underway on Saturday with Manchester City vs Crystal Palace. Later that day, we look ahead to Everton’s trip to Nottingham Forest before Arsenal take on Bournemouth at the Emirates. Liverpool are aiming to get back to winning ways when they face West Ham in Sunday’s first game. Then Newcastle are aiming to inflict more misery on Manchester United. Bournemouth square off against Fulham in Monday night’s game.

• Manchester City vs Crystal Palace: Under 27.5 Shots In The Match
• Nottingham Forest vs Everton: Over 1.5 Fouls For Idrissa Gueye
• Arsenal vs Brentford: Under 8.5 Shots On Target In The Match
• Liverpool vs West Ham: Under 26.5 Shots In The Match
• Newcastle vs Manchester United: Over 13.5 Free Kicks For Newcastle
• Bournemouth vs Fulham: Over 34.5 Tackles In The Match

Acca odds: 46.81

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Scott Thornton runs the rule over the weekend’s Premier League slate with Sam Ingram. Enjoy…

Manchester City vs Crystal Palace: Tough Test For Pep

England, Premier League, Saturday, 12th April, 12:30 (UK)

Manchester City had to settle for a draw against Manchester United at Old Trafford last weekend. It is the first time they have kept consecutive clean sheets in the Premier League this season but dropping points means they now sit 6th in the table.

Crystal Palace have been in inspired form since the turn of the year. Only Liverpool and Arsenal have picked up more points than the Eagles over that period. The slow start to the campaign means that Oliver Glasner’s team are in the bottom half but a late surge could see them secure a European place. 

City aren’t quite as menacing as they once were, particularly with Erling Haaland sidelined through injury. With Pep Guardiola’s side unlikely to have a staggering amount of shots, we are backing under 27.5 in the match here. This bet has won in City’s last 10 league matches. Those have seen 22.1 shots on average.

The Eagles’ recent away matches have also seen fewer shots. There were just 17 when they faced Southampton at the start of April. Their other most recent away match against Fulham saw just 20 shots. The head-to-head numbers also show promise. There has been 25 shots or less in the last five meetings between these sides with an average of 22.2.

• Selection: Under 27.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Nottingham Forest vs Everton: Gueye Tasked With Stopping the Counter

England, Premier League, Saturday, 12th April, 15:00 (UK)

Nottingham Forest were beaten 2-1 by Aston Villa last weekend but they are still sitting pretty in 3rd place. Nuno Espirito Santo has gone against the grain. His side sits deep, surrender possession and are lethal on the counter. It is an approach that has served them well this season.

David Moyes is enjoying a triumphant return to Everton. He has lost two of his 12 league matches in charge but they haven’t won a game since February 15th. A plethora of draws will have frustrated Moyes but they remain 15 points above the relegation zone. 

With Forest set to hit on the counter, Idrissa Gueye looks well-placed to make fouls in the heart of the Everton midfield. At least one starting central midfielder for the opposition has reached the two-foul mark in five of Forest’s last six league games. Gueye is likely to be the man here.

Idrissa Gueye made three fouls in the 1-1 draw with Arsenal last weekend. He was booked for his only foul of the match when Everton played Forest earlier in the campaign. The midfielder should get two here provided he doesn’t get a card fairly early on. 

• Selection: Over 1.5 Fouls For Idrissa Gueye (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Arsenal vs Brentford: The Gunners Not at Full Throttle

England, Premier League, Saturday, 12th April, 17:30 (UK)

Arsenal shocked everyone by hammering Real Madrid 3-0 on Wednesday night. The Gunners are real contenders for the Champions League so Mikel Arteta could choose to rest some players here. They are unlikely to catch Liverpool in the race for the league title so it’ll be interesting to see how they approach this clash that comes just days before they play at the Santiago Bernabeu.

Brentford have won just one of their last five matches in the Premier League. However, their away form offers Thomas Frank some encouragement ahead of the trip to the Emirates. The Bees have won five of their last six away matches.

The Gunners are unlikely to go full throttle with such a big game on the horizon so we are betting under 8.5 shots on target in the match. This bet has won in Arsenal’s last five home matches against teams who are currently in the bottom half with those matches seeing an average of 6.2 shots on target. 

There were seven shots on target when Brentford hosted Arsenal earlier in the season. Our bet has also landed in four of their last five matches. The Bees are capable of not being overrun but it’s difficult to see them having an abundance of attempts against this solid Arsenal side. 

• Selection: Under 8.5 Shots On Target In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Liverpool vs West Ham: The Hammers Struggling to Strike

England, Premier League, Sunday, 13th April, 14:00 (UK)

Liverpool are coasting towards the title. The quadruple was on at one stage but elimination from the other three competitions means that fixture congestion isn’t an issue in the closing stages of the campaign. Arne Slot will be keen for his side to bounce back after losing at Craven Cottage last weekend. 

Graham Potter has struggled to put together a good run of results as West Ham boss. The Englishman has managed to shore things up defensively but scoring goals is a problem for the Hammers. Since Potter took charge, their matches have seen the fewest goals in the division with an average of 2.25 per game.

The Reds’ home matches this season have seen an average of 25.67 shots. Slot’s Liverpool team are more patient than they were under Jurgen Klopp and the numbers have dropped as a result. There have been 26 shots or less in eight of their last 10 league games and we are banking on that happening once again.

West Ham’s league matches since Potter took charge have seen 23.45 shots on average. A more defensive shape has allowed them to be more sturdy at the back but they have offered very little going forward. Our bet has won in their last six league outings.

• Selection: Under 26.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Newcastle vs Manchester United: Battling Bruno’s Lead to Fouls

England, Premier League, Sunday, 13th April, 16:30 (UK)

Newcastle are targeting a top-four finish. BETSiE projects they will finish ahead of Manchester City for the first time since 2007. Beating the red half of Manchester this weekend would be a huge boost to those chances. Eddie Howe’s side are flying high after winning the EFL Cup and will fancy their chances of playing in the Champions League next season with 5th place now enough to qualify. 

Manchester United are on course to have their worst-ever season in the Premier League. Rubem Amorim has been unable to turn the tide since taking over from Erik Ten Hag. The Red Devils look toothless in front of goal and a summer overhaul is anticipated.

The Magpies are the third-most-fouled team in the Premier League, forcing an average of 12.1 per game. This number climbs to 12.9 if we only include the data from their home matches. Their opponents have made an average of 14.2 fouls in their last five home games so over 13.5 free kicks for Newcastle, which also includes offsides, appeals here.

Since Amorim took charge, United have made an average of 11.13 fouls per away game across all competitions. However, head-to-heads with Newcastle are more promising. This bet has won in the last four matches between these slides with Newcastle winning 16.25 free kicks on average. Bruno Fernandes and Bruno Guimaraes are both fiery players. They will be directly up against each other here. 

• Selection: Over 13.5 Free Kicks For Newcastle (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Bournemouth vs Fulham: The Cherries Sweeten the Tackle Numbers

England, Premier League, Monday, 14th April, 20:00 (UK)

Bournemouth recent slump has seen them drop to 10th in the Premier League. They have failed to win any of their last eight matches across all competitions in normal time. The underlying data suggests they should be higher up. The Cherries have an xPTS tally of 55.12, the third best in the top tier. 

Fulham are three points ahead of Bournemouth coming into this one. Marco Silva’s side are just one place off the guaranteed European places but 8th could be enough to secure qualification. The Cottagers earned an impressive 3-2 win over Liverpool last weekend.

Iraola likes his team to press aggressively. They allow 8.48 passes per defensive action, the fewest in the Premier League. When they win the ball, Bournemouth aim to move the ball forward quickly. This approach has meant their matches see plenty of tackles with an average of 36.33.

The tackle count is far lower when Fulham take to the field. Their league matches have seen an average of 32.8 tackles. However, there were 38 when they squared off against Bournemouth earlier in the season. This game could also have a huge bearing on European qualification, fueling an even higher tackle count.

• Selection: Over 34.5 Tackles In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Premier League Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 09:42, April 10th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

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