Scott Thornton’s Premier League Props: Five Best Bets

Scott Thornton has five tips for the midweek action in the Premier League after an intriguing weekend in the FA Cup. BETSiE projects that Liverpool have the title wrapped up but there is still plenty to play for.

Tuesday night sees Wolves host West Ham before Manchester United take on Nottingham Forest at the City Ground. On Wednesday, we have a bet for Newcastle vs Brentford and the Merseyside Derby. Chelsea go toe-to-toe with Tottenham on Thursday night.

• Wolves vs West Ham: Under 25.5 Shots In The Match
• Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United: Over 12.5 Shots For Manchester United
• Newcastle vs Brentford: Under 28.5 Shots In The Match
• Liverpool vs Everton: Over 35.5 Throws In The Match
• Chelsea vs Tottenham: Over 32.5 Throws In The Match

Acca odds: 21.34

Wolves vs West Ham: Passive Wolves and Defensively Hardened Hammers

England, Premier League, Tuesday, 1st April, 19:45 (UK)

Wolves are just one place above the relegation zone but there is very little danger of them going down thanks to the form of the newly-promoted sides. Vitor Pereira won his first two matches in charge of the team but since then the Old Gold have recorded just three wins in 11 league outings. They have the chance to win back-to-back league games for just the third time this season on Tuesday night.

West Ham also made a managerial change this season. Graham Potter replaced Julen Lopetegui in January. Potter has made the Hammers defensively sound but their attacking output has suffered. 

Both teams lack confidence ahead of this one so we are backing under 25.5 shots in the match. Wolves’ matches have seen an average of 24.14 attempts, the third-fewest in the Premier League. This drops to just 22.38 shots per game if we only include the data from Pereira’s tenure. 

The Hammers’ matches have seen the fewest goals in the division since Potter took charge with an average of 2.11. A lack of goals correlates with fewer attempts. There have been 25 shots in seven of their nine league games under Graham with under 25.5 landing in the last four.

• Selection: Under 25.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United: Fatigue Sets in at the City Ground

England, Premier League, Tuesday, 1st April, 20:0 (UK)

Nottingham Forest beat Brighton via a penalty shootout at the weekend. It remains to be seen whether or not tired legs will be an issue with two Premier League matches to come this week. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are on course to qualify for the Champions League but they cannot afford many slip-ups.

Manchester United have endured a miserable campaign. Ruben Amorim was unable to turn the ship around after a woeful start to the season under Erik Ten Hag. The Portuguese manager is now focused on performances as the Red Devils prepare for a summer rebuild. 

Forest are conceding an average of 14.7 shots per game in their last 10 league matches. During that period, just three of their opponents have failed to reach the 13-shot mark. Nuno’s side have the lowest possession stats in the division and should afford United ample opportunity to shoot here with very little time to recover from their cup clash with Brighton.

The Red Devils have had plenty of time to train following the international break, which should help them here. They had 17 shots when they faced Forest earlier in the season. United’s last trip to the City Ground saw them rack up 20 attempts.

• Selection: Over 12.5 Shots For Manchester United (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Newcastle vs Brentford: The Shot Line Looks Lofty

England, Premier League, Wednesday, 2nd April, 19:45 (UK)

Newcastle have had plenty of time to celebrate their Carabao Cup triumph but they need to get back to business here. Eddie Howe’s side are chasing a place in the top four. They are just two points behind Chelsea, who currently occupy that spot, ahead of matchday 30. The Magpies will be keen to use their cup triumph as a springboard for further success. Regaining a place in the Champions League will help them immensely in the transfer market.

Brentford have won their last five Premier League matches on the road. However, their home form has suffered during that time so they are down in 11th. The top tier of English football could have as many as 11 teams in Europe next season so every place counts. 

Eddie Howe’s side’s last 10 league outings have seen an average of 24.3 shots. There have been 28 shots or less in their last nine games across all competitions with those averaging just 22 attempts, well below the bookmaker’s line here. 

The Bees are conceding the second most shots in the league with an average of 17.45 but the match line looks a little high here. Under 28.5 shots has won in their last five head-to-heads against Newcastle with those matches seeing an average of 22.60 per game. 

• Selection: Under 28.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Liverpool vs Everton: Derby Data Delights Throws Backers

England, Premier League, Wednesday, 2nd April, 20:00 (UK)

Liverpool are coasting towards the title in Arne Slot’s first season with the club. The futures of some of their key players are still up in the air and things have started to unravel a little bit on the pitch of late. The Reds were dumped out of the Champions League by PSG and lost the EFL Cup final against Newcastle. Can they rediscover their mojo in the Merseyside Derby?

Everton earned a 2-2 draw against Liverpool in the reverse fixture but they have a poor record at Anfield. They have won just one of their 17 games at this ground since the start of 2011. The Toffees have also failed to score in four of their last five matches here.

The Reds’ matches have seen an average of 33.10 throws per game this season but we should see more when they square off against Everton. There were 38 in the reverse fixture and 46 the last time they played their local rivals at Anfield. Therefore, over 35.5 looks like a solid bet. 

The Toffees’ matches see the second most throws in the top tier of English football with an average of 37.62 per game. There were 43 throws when they took on West Ham before the international break, their most recent game. 

• Selection: Over 35.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Chelsea vs Tottenham: Ange to Bring the Fight

England, Premier League, Thursday, 3rd April, 20:00 (UK)

Chelsea are marginally ahead of Manchester City ahead of the midweek fixture list. Enzo Maresca’s side’s form has been sporadic since the start of the festive period. This indifferent run saw them fall out of title contention. The Blues are now in a fight to qualify for the Champions League.

Ange Postecoglou is under growing pressure. Andoni Iraola was a rumoured summer target for Tottenham over the weekend. Daniel Levy will surely be hunting for a new manager if results don’t improve before the end of the season. 

Maresca’s side are accustomed to having plenty of possession. As a result, their matches average just 30.52 throws but they face a Tottenham side who will be keen to press them high up the pitch. There were 34 throws when the teams met in December. There have been 33 throws or more in seven of their last eight competitive head-to-heads at Stamford Bridge with those games averaging 40.50 throws.

Tottenham’s last 10 league games have seen 34.6 throws on average. Their last five games against teams currently in the top half of the table have seen an average of 38.40 throws with this bet winning in four of them.

• Selection: Over 32.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Premier League Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 13:56, March 31st, 2025. Odds may now differ.

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