Scott Thornton’s Premier League Props: Best Bets Preview

Scott Thornton brings you his Premier League props bets ahead of a busy weekend of action in the top tier of English football.

On Friday night, Leicester host Brentford as they look to turn things around. Everton are aiming to continue their good form by adding to Manchester United’s misery in Saturday’s early game. Later that day, we look ahead at Fulham vs Crystal Palace before Chelsea head to Villa Park. On Sunday, Newcastle take on Nottingham Forest before Manchester City and Liverpool go toe-to-toe at the Etihad.

• Leicester vs Brentford: Over 34.5 Throws In The Match
• Everton vs Manchester United: Under 24.5 Shots In The Match
• Fulham vs Crystal Palace: Over 14.5 Shots For Fulham
• Aston Villa vs Chelsea: Over 6.5 Goal Kicks For Aston Villa
• Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest: Over 15.5 Shots For Newcastle
• Manchester City vs Liverpool: Under 25.5 Shots In The Match

Acca odds: 42.22

Leicester vs Brentford: Now or Never for Ruud

England, Premier League, Friday, 21st February, 20:00 (UK)

Leicester need to end their dismal home run sooner rather than later if they are to survive in the Premier League. The Foxes have lost their last five league matches in front of their own fans. Ruud Van Nistelrooy has been unable to turn the tide since taking charge and the team have won just two of their 12 league matches under the Dutchman, leaving them 19th in the table. 

Brentford were exceptional at home and poor on the road in the opening months of the season but that has flipped on its head since the turn of the year. The Bees beat West Ham in their last match, making it three consecutive away wins. 

The Foxes’ matches have seen an average of 36.48 throws, the fourth highest in the division. They are running out of time to start picking up points so their approach should become more frantic in the weeks to come. Hopefully, that leads to more throws. There were 45 throws in their last home game against Arsenal. 

The throw count is more modest when Brentford take to the field. However, there were 44 throws when the teams met at the Gtech Community Stadium earlier in the season. 

• Selection: Over 34.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Everton vs Manchester United: No Creative Spark for Amorim

England, Premier League, Saturday, 22nd February, 12:30 (UK)

Everton went above Manchester United in the table by beating Crystal Palace last weekend. David Moyes is enjoying a triumphant return to Goodison Park and things are looking up. The Toffees have won four of their six league games under the Scotsman, moving them comfortably clear of the bottom three.

Ruben Amorim’s woes continued against Tottenham. A barebones United team handed Spurs their first home win in the league since November. The Red Devils have now lost 12 of their 25 league matches, the most at this stage since they were relegated in 1973/74.

Shots were in short supply when Everton faced Manchester United earlier in the season and the game ended with just 19. The Toffees’ league matches under Moyes have seen 21.5 shots on average. This drops to 20.5 if we only include the data from their games at Goodison Park. Therefore, under 24.5 shots looks like a solid bet here.

Manchester United aren’t as a direct under Amorim. The Portuguese coach prefers a more patient approach but United have lacked creativity. The Red Devils’ Premier League away matches under the Portuguese manager have seen 23.14 shots on average. This bet has landed in five of those seven games. 

• Selection: Under 24.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Fulham vs Crystal Palace: Marco Silva’s Men Have the Edge

England, Premier League, Saturday, 22nd February, 15:00 (UK)

Fulham earned an impressive 2-1 home win over Nottingham Forest in their last match to take them to within five points of the top four. Marco Silva’s side have established themselves in the Premier League in recent years and now have their sights set on European football.

Crystal Palace have lost just two of their last 10 matches across all competitions but their poor start to the campaign means finishing in the top half could prove to be a struggle. They will want to build some momentum in the weeks to come with FA Cup success still on the cards.

The Cottagers have been impressive in recent weeks, racking up 15 shots in their away win over Newcastle and 24 in their home win over Nottingham Forest. Fulham are averaging 14.54 shots per league game at Craven Cottage and can exceed that mark against Palace. 

The Eagles have conceded 15 or more shots in four of their last five away games in the Premier League. Over that period, their opponents are averaging 16 attempts per game. 

• Selection: Over 14.5 Shots For Fulham (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Aston Villa vs Chelsea: The Blues to Apply Pressure

England, Premier League, Saturday, 22nd February, 17:30 (UK)

Aston Villa were impressive as they drew 2-2 with Liverpool in front of their own fans on Wednesday night. However, Unai Emery’s men have work to do if they are to secure Champions League football next season. The Villains are through to the last 16 amongst Europe’s elite but are 9th in the Premier League.

Chelsea were involved in the title race at one stage but a lacklustre run of form over the festive period saw them slip away. The defeat against Brighton last weekend means they are now 6th, behind Bournemouth on goal difference.

The Villains had eight goal kicks when they faced Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in December. They had 12 the last time they faced the Blues at Villa Park so we are backing the home side to have at least seven here. 

Enzo Maresca’s side are forcing an average of 8.28 goal kicks per game, the third most in the Premier League. Our bet has won in four of their last five away matches with their opponents taking 10 goal kicks on average in those outings. 

• Selection: Over 6.5 Goal Kicks For Aston Villa (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest: Nuno Has Food for Thought

England, Premier League, Sunday, 23rd February, 14:00 (UK)

Newcastle were expected to put up a fight against Manchester City last weekend but their torrid run at the Etihad continued. The Magpies have fought their way into Champions League contention with their superb run of form in 20254 but they need to get back to winning ways here.

Nottingham Forest have been the surprise package of the season. They are 3rd in the Premier League, three points above the reigning champions, Manchester City. Nuno Espirito Santo will be delighted with what he has seen from his team thus far but he will know they need to finish the season strongly to finish in the top four.

The Magpies’ home matches in the Premier League have seen 28.25 shots on average and we expect them to have the lion’s share of the attempts here. Their last five home games in the league have seen them average 18 shots per game so over 15.5 appeals.

Forest conceded 24 shots as they were beaten by Fulham last weekend. They conceded 17 shots when they hosted Newcastle earlier in the season. Forest’s last visit to St. James’s Park saw them concede 19 attempts. 

• Selection: Over 15.5 Shots For Newcastle (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Manchester City vs Liverpool: Pep Aim’s to Shackle Liverpool

England, Premier League, Sunday, 23rd February, 16:30 (UK)

Manchester City are underdogs at the Etihad for the first time since 2016. They were dumped out of the Champions League midweek as they succumbed to a 3-1 defeat against Real Madrid. Pep Guardiola now needs his team to bounce back and hold on to fourth place.

Liverpool are the clear favourites for the title but they did drop points against Aston Villa midweek. A defeat here could open the door for an injury-stricken Arsenal side in the race for the Premier League. Arne Slot is yet to lose a league game on the road but the Reds haven’t won a league fixture at the Etihad since Pep took over.  

Pep Guradiola’s team looked more solid as they beat Newcastle last weekend. There were just 14 shots in that match and City will be hoping to keep Liverpool at bay in a similar fashion.

The Reds’ away matches have seen plenty of shots with Liverpool themselves averaging 18.21 attempts in those games. However, they are unlikely to have it all their own way against City. There have been 25 shots or less in their last 10 games at the Etihad. Those matches have seen an average of 21.1 shots. 

• Selection: Under 25.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Premier League Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 14:36, February 20th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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