Scott Thornton’s Premier League Props: Six Best Bets

Scott Thornton is back with six betting tips for the Premier League’s weekend action.

At 15:00 on Saturday, we have Brighton vs Everton and Southampton vs Newcastle to look forward to before Chelsea head to the Etihad to take on Manchester City. On Sunday, it’s a triple header. First up, Crystal Palace host Brentford before Aston Villa take on West Ham. The late kick-off sees Manchester United looking to arrest their slump against Fulham. 

• Brighton vs Everton: Under 25.5 Shots In The Match
• Southampton vs Newcastle: Over 18.5 Shots For Newcastle
• Manchester City vs Chelsea: Under 28.5 Shots In The Match
• Crystal Palace vs Brentford: Over 16.5 Shots For Crystal Palace
• Aston Villa vs West Ham: Over 28.5 Throws In The Match
• Fulham vs Manchester United: Over 18.5 Tackles For Manchester United

Acca odds: 41.23

Brighton vs Everton: The Toffees Seek to Keep the Seagulls Grounded

England, Premier League, Saturday, 25th January, 15:00 (UK)

Brighton earned a 3-1 win at Old Trafford last weekend to climb into 9th place. The team haven’t tasted defeat since they were beaten 3-1 by Crystal Palace on the 15th of December. Fabian Hurzeler is enjoying his first season in the Premier League and will be hoping to steer the Seagulls into Europe.

David Moyes still has factions of the Everton to support to win over but the victory over Tottenham will have helped. The veteran manager has had two difficult fixtures at the start of his second stint at Goodison Park. The tough tests continue when they take on Brighton. 

The Seagulls’ home matches in the league have seen an average of 26.6 shots but expect fewer here. There were just 19 attempts when they faced Everton earlier in the season and the new-manager bounce seems to have had a positive effect on the visitors. 

Moyes’ two matches in charge thus far have seen 21 and 23 shots respectively. Despite their struggles, Everton’s away matches this season have seen 24.7 shots on average so under 25.5 looks a solid bet here. 

• Selection: Under 25.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Southampton vs Newcastle: Saints Need Divine Intervention

England, Premier League, Saturday, 25th January, 15:00 (UK)

There is very little hope for Southampton in terms of survival. They have managed just one win in 22 league games and are on course to beat Derby’s record for the worst-ever points tally in a Premier League season. The Saints were beaten 5-0 in their last home game and could face another battering here.

Eddie Howe’s side were enjoying an excellent run of form before Bournemouth secured an emphatic 4-1 win at St. James’s Park last weekend thanks to a Justin Kluivert hat-trick. It ended a run of nine straight wins for Newcastle across all competitions. 

Southampton are conceding an average of 18.77 shots per game, the second most in the division. This number increases to 19.7 if we only factor in the data from their home matches. They conceded 20 shots in their last game against St. Mary’s against Brentford. 

Newcastle are averaging 16.7 shots per game in their last 10 across all competitions. However, they should comfortably exceed that mark against a Southampton side that are the worst team in the Premier League. 

• Selection: Over 18.5 Shots For Newcastle (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Manchester City vs Chelsea: Tactical Battle Between Pep and Enzo

England, Premier League, Saturday, 25th January, 17:30 (UK)

Manchester City’s place in the Champions League is hanging by a thread after a 4-2 defeat at the Parc des Princes midweek. Pep Guardiola’s side needs to dust themselves off quickly with Chelsea awaiting them this weekend. City are two points behind the Blues ahead of this clash.

Chelsea currently occupy 4th place. They are four points behind Nottingham Forest after a dismal run of form over the festive period but the win over Wolves last weekend will have given them some confidence. However, the Blues haven’t won at the Etihad since May 2021.

Pep’s team were overrun by PSG midweek and he will be keen to remedy that here. City home matches have seen an average of 27.7 shots with the champions contributing 19.1. The Citizens shouldn’t reach that mark against a Chelsea side who are conceding the fourth fewest attempts in the division. 

The Blues’ away matches have seen an average of 25.64 shots. Like City, they also have the lion’s share of the attempts but are unlikely to hit their usual numbers against tough opponents. There were just 21 shots when the sides met earlier in the campaign. The last 10 matches between the sides have seen 24.5 shots on average. 

• Selection: Under 28.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Crystal Palace vs Brentford: The Bees Get Stung on the Road

England, Premier League, Sunday, 26th January, 14:00 (UK)

Crystal Palace are in five. They come into this one after back-to-back 2-0 wins and they haven’t suffered defeat since before Christmas. The Eagles have shown some frailty at home, failing to keep a clean sheet at this ground in their last six.

Brentford started the season in fine fettle but they are in danger of undoing their good work. The team have just one win in their last nine competitive matches. The Bees have also picked up just one win in 10 Premier League away matches this season. They have now dropped into the bottom half of the table.

Oliver Glasner’s side’s last home game in the league was a 1-1 draw with Chelsea. They racked up a total of 13 shots in that one but should be expected to have more here. Crystal Palace had 19 shots when they hosted Southampton, the team who ranks just behind Brentford in terms of shots conceded. 

The Bees conceded 37 shots against Liverpool last weekend, meaning they have now afforded their opponents more opportunities to pull the trigger than any other side. In away games, they concede an average of 21.4 attempts. Southampton are the only team who have failed to hit the 18-shot mark at home to Brentford. 

• Selection: Over 16.5 Shots For Crystal Palace (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Aston Villa vs West Ham: Head-to-Head Data Points to Throws

England, Premier League, Saturday, 25th January, 16:30 (UK)

Aston Villa suffered defeat in the Champions League on Tuesday night but their recent domestic form has been strong. They came from two goals behind to draw 2-2 against Arsenal at the Emirates last weekend.  Unai Emery’s side now sit 8th in the league, so there is work to be done to secure Champions League qualification.

West Ham have turned to Graham Potter after a poor start to the season under Julen Lopetegui. Things were looking up after a 3-2 win over Fulham but a 2-0 home defeat at the hands of Crystal Palace has sent the Hammers crashing back down to earth.

These teams met at this ground in the FA Cup earlier this month. There were 31 throws in that game with 18 of those coming in the first half. We should see a fast start in this regard once against as the visitors look to press Villa. Over 28.5 throws has won in nine of the last 10 head-to-heads between the sides with an average of 34.5 per game. 

Potter’s tenure is still in its infancy but it’s clear what style of play he will try to implement. His Brighton team was proactive out of possession and West Ham should force throws as they attempt to replicate this. There have been 30 throws or more in all three of Potter’s games in charge thus far. 

• Selection: Over 28.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Fulham vs Manchester United: Amorim’s Press Leads to Tackles

England, Premier League, Saturday, 25th January, 19:00 (UK)

Fulham are another side that harbours ambitions of qualifying for Europe. They are currently 10th in the league, just five points behind Manchester City. Marco Silva’s side have lost just one of their last 12 competitive matches but six of those ended in a draw.

Ruben Amorim was left infuriated by his team’s display at home to Brighton last weekend. Manchester United have picked up just three wins in 15 league matches under the new boss so a relegation battle is more likely than a charge for a European place. 

The Cottagers are the least tackles team in the Premier League with their opponents averaging 14.4 per game. However, United made 21 tackles when they played Fulham earlier in the season.

Manchester United’s tackle numbers under Amorim have been good. The manager is looking to make them a more proficient pressing side and this has meant they are averaging 19.18 tackles per league game under him. This rises to 20.4 if we only include the data from Amorim’s five away league matches in charge. 

• Selection: Over 18.5 Tackles For Manchester United (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Premier League Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 11:42, January 23rd, 2025. Odds may now differ.

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