Scott Thornton’s Premier League Props: Six Best Bets

Scott Thornton has six Premier League props ahead of the second matchday of the week. 

The early kick-off sees Bournemouth head to St James’s Park to take on a rampant Newcastle. Later on Saturday, it’s Leicester vs Fulham before Arsenal take on Aston Villa. On Sunday, we have Ipswich vs Manchester City to look forward to before Everton face Tottenham. The Monday night match sees Chelsea host Wolves at Stamford Bridge.

• Newcastle vs Bournemouth: Over 36.5 Throws In The Match
• Leicester vs Fulham: Over 10.5 Shots For Leicester
• Arsenal vs Aston Villa: Under 24.5 Shots In The Match
• Everton vs Tottenham: Over 13.5 Free Kicks For Tottenham
• Ipswich vs Manchester City: Under 30.5 Throws In The Match
• Chelsea vs Wolves: Under 35.5 Tackles In The Match

Acca odds: 39.82

Newcastle vs Bournemouth: The Cherries Top the Tree For Throws

England, Premier League, Saturday, 18th January, 12:30 (UK)

Newcastle continued their marvellous run of form by beating Wolves midweek. Alexander Isak has now scored in eight consecutive Premier League games and is chasing the record of 12 set by Jamie Vardy. Eddie Howe’s side are now sitting pretty in 4th as they look to return to the Champions League.

Bournemouth are also enjoying a fantastic season. They sit 8th in the table but the underlying data suggests they should be even higher. The Cherries have the third-highest xPTS (expected points) tally in the division, behind only Liverpool and Arsenal.

The Magpies’ matches have seen an average of 34.1 throws per game, above the league average of 32.72. Nevertheless, their clash with Bournemouth should see even more throws. There were 43 when the teams met earlier this season and over 36.5 has landed in four of the last five head-to-heads.

Andoni Iraola’s side’s games have seen the most throws in the division with an average of 39.29. Their willingness to press and willingness to move the ball from back to front quickly adds to the chaotic nature of their games. In fact, our bet has won in nine of their 11 Premier League away games. 

• Selection: Over 36.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Leicester vs Fulham: The Foxes Hunt For Goals

England, Premier League, Saturday, 18th January, 15:00 (UK)

Leicester find themselves in a precarious position after suffering yet another defeat. They were beaten 2-0 at the King Power Stadium midweek, leaving them without a win in their last seven league outings. The woeful run means they are now 19th in the table, three points from safety due to their inferior goal difference. 

Marco Silva has done an excellent job at Fulham. They are in the top half of the Premier League and are just five points behind Manchester City. However, they suffered a setback as they were beaten 3-2 away at West Ham in their last game. The Cottagers have just one clean sheet in their last 11 competitive games and it’s becoming a problem.

The Foxes showed plenty of attacking intent despite losing against Crystal Palace. They racked up a whopping 21 shots and they should be expected to throw caution to the wind once again as they search for a vital three points. Leicester are averaging 11.8 shots per home game this season, above the line set by the bookmakers here.

Fulham are conceding an average of 11.9 shots per away game this season. They allowed Leicester to have 10 shots in the reverse fixture but the Foxes should have more impetus in front of their own fans. The last time these teams squared off at this ground, Leicester had 15 attempts. 

• Selection: Over 10.5 Shots For Leicester (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Arsenal vs Aston Villa: Arteta and Emery Locked in Tactical Battle

England, Premier League, Saturday, 18th January, 17:30 (UK)

Arsenal closed the gap on Liverpool by overcoming a goal deficit to beat Tottenham 2-1 in the North London Derby on Wednesday night. Gabriel netted yet another goal from a set piece as the Gunners continued to wreak havoc in the opposition penalty area. They will need to be at the races once again this weekend.

Unai Emery did the double over Arsenal, his former employer, last season and ultimately cost them the title. Aston Villa were beaten 2-0 by the Gunners earlier this season but they know they are capable of upsetting the odds here. 

The Gunners look less creative without Bukayo Saka but their shot numbers have been dwindling in recent months. Their past five league games at the Emirates have seen an average of 20 shots per game with under 24.5 attempts winning in all of those matches.  

There were just 20 attempts as Villa succumbed to a 2-0 defeat against Arsenal earlier in the season and this one also promises to be a cagey affair. There were just 21 shots in the Villains; most recent away match.

• Selection: Under 24.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Everton vs Tottenham: Moyes Prepped For a Fight

England, Premier League, Sunday, 19th January, 14:00 (UK)

David Moyes was unable to make a triumphant start to his second stint in charge of Everton. His team succumbed to a 1-0 defeat at home to Aston Villa midweek but there were some signs of encouragement. The Toffees had an even share of possession and created some quality chances. Dominic Calvert-Lewin should have snatched a point for the home side at the death but missed a half-open net. 

Tottenham’s poor form continued as they lost at the Emirates. They have just one win in 90 minutes in their last seven competitive matches. The poor form means there is pressure building on Ange Postecoglou with the team languishing in the bottom half of the Premier League. 

Everton showed plenty of fight against Villa, making 19 tackles. They also committed 17 fouls and were caught offside on five occasions, meaning their opponents has 22 free kicks. Tottenham had 19 free kicks when they beat the Toffees 4-0 earlier in the season and we should see a high foul count once again.

Spurs are the most fouled team in the Premier League, forcing an average of 13.52 fouls per game. Their opponents also average 2.24 offsides per match. Tottenham have had 14 or more free kicks in eight of their 10 away matches in the league thus far. 

• Selection: Over 13.5 Free Kicks For Tottenham (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Ipswich vs Manchester City: Similar Matches Tell the Tale

England, Premier League, Sunday, 19th January, 16:30 (UK)

Ipswich were in action against Brighton on Thursday night as they looked to move out of the relegation zone. Kieran McKenn’s side entered the Premier League on the back of consecutive promotions from League One so survival would represent a huge success.

Manchester City’s word continued midweek as they drew 2-2 when they visited Brentford. Phil Foden scored a brace, giving his team a two-goal lead. However, two goals in the last 15 minutes for the home side meant it finished all square. Pep Guardiola’s side are now 6th in the league and in danger of missing out on the top four. 

The Tractor Boys like to try to keep possession. They lack the quality to control the ball as they did in the Championship but the throw count has remained modest in their matches due to their patient nature. Their matches have seen an average of 33.25 throws but this drops against the league’s best. Manchester City, Aston Villa, Southampton and Arsenal matches rank as seeing the fewest throws in the league. Ipswich have played four matches against those opponents with under 30.5 throws winning in all.

Pep’s side’s matches have seen an average of 28.52 throws per game. Our bet has won in five of their last six Premier League matches. 

• Selection: Under 30.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Chelsea vs Wolves: The Blues to Control Possession

England, Premier League, Monday, 20th January, 20:00 (UK)

Chelsea were looking like outside contenders for the league at one stage but a disastrous festive period has seen them fall out of contention. The Blues are without a win in their last five Premier League outings. This has seen them slump to 5th, 10 points behind the league leaders having played a game more.

Vitor Pereira won his first two matches in charge of Wolves. However, they have failed to win any of their last three in the league and have suffered back-to-back 3-0 defeats. Wolves came unstuck against a vibrant Newcastle midweek and they face another tough away trip here. 

Enzo Maresca’s side’s matches have seen the fifth fewest tackles in the league with an average of 32.95 per game. This drops to 30 if we only factor in the data from their games at Stamford Bridge. Under 35.5 tackles has won in their last seven league games in front of their own fans with an average of 27.71.

Wolves have racked up big tackle numbers this season but that wasn’t the case when they faced Chelsea. There were 33 tackles when the teams met at Molineux in August and 31 the last time Wolves played at Stamford Bridge.

• Selection: Under 35.5 Tackles In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Premier League Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 13:00, January 16th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

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