Scott Thornton’s FA Cup Props: Minnows Create Betting Opportunities

Scott Thornton has five props bets for the 3rd of the FA Cup as England’s top sides gear up to face some unfamiliar foes.

First up, Accrington Stanley head to Anfield to face Liverpool. Later on Saturday, it’s Chelsea vs Morecambe before Manchester City host Salford. On Sunday, Tamworth are hoping to upset Tottenham. Arsenal and Manchester United do battle once again to round off the bets. 

In this article: 

• Liverpool vs Accrington Stanley: Under 22.5 Free Kicks In The Match
• Chelsea vs Morecambe: Over 2.5 Corners For Morecambe
• Manchester City vs Salford: Under 29.5 Throws In The Match
• Tamworth vs Tottenham: Over 35.5 Throws In The Match
• Arsenal vs Manchester United: Over 29.5 Throws In The Match

Acca odds: 17.70

Liverpool vs Accrington Stanley: Lenient Cup Referees

England, FA Cup, Saturday, 11th January, 12:15 (UK)

Liverpool lost the first leg of their EFL Cup semi-final against Tottenham midweek. They still have time to save the tie but their focus this weekend is the FA Cup. Arne Slot’s team are top of the Premier League and 1st in the Champions League. They are likely to rest players here with plenty of fixtures to come but they should be able to get to the 4th round with ease.

Accrington Stanley are 19th in League Two, 86 places below their opponents in the English football pyramid. Back-to-back wins have signalled the end of an eight-match winless run and moved them clear of the drop zone. The minnows need a minor miracle to go through at Anfield but the supporters will undoubtedly enjoy the day. 

The Reds’ matches have seen the 6th fewest fouls in the Premier League with an average of 21.68 per game.  Their EFL Cup games have seen an average of 20 fouls but they are yet to face lower-league opposition. There were 19 free-kicks in their semi-final clash with Spurs.  

Referees tend to be more lenient in the FA Cup and that should ring true here. There were 21 free-kicks as Accrington edged past Swindon in the last round. This one is a complete mismatch, so expect even fewer fouls as Liverpool dominates the ball and keeps the visitors at arm’s length.

• Selection: Under 22.5 Free Kicks In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Chelsea vs Morecambe: The Visitors Can Add to Corner Count

England, FA Cup, Saturday, 11th January, 15:00 (UK)

Chelsea’s title challenge fell by the wayside over the festive period. Two draws and two defeats in their last four league matches have seen them drop to 4th in the Premier League, just a point above Newcastle who are chasing that Champions League place. The FA Cup is a great opportunity to secure silverware in his first season at the club so expect the Blues to name a good starting 11 here.

Morecambe are in the relegation zone of England’s fourth tier. A trip to Stamford Bridge will come as a welcome distraction from their battle to survive. They have 20 points after 24 games, leaving them five points from safety with a game in hand. 

Maresca’s side have already faced a few minnows this season due to their participation in the Europa Conference League. What’s interesting is they’ve conceded three corners or more in all four of the group games in that competition. Chelsea were priced at 1.07 in the last two of those games, around the same as this weekend’s clash. 

The away side’s best hope is from set pieces so expect them to be direct when they do have the ball. Morecambe are averaging 6.3 corners per game in their last 10 matches across all competitions. Chelsea are a monumental step up but the home side’s corners against in Europe offer hope. 

• Selection: Over 2.5 Corners For Morecambe (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Manchester City vs Salford: Pep’s Men in Control

England, FA Cup, Saturday, 11th January, 17:45 (UK)

Manchester City have weathered the storm by winning their last two games. Pep Guardiola’s team were in crisis having won just one of 13 matches so the wins will have restored some confidence at the Etihad. They still face a battle to make it into the top four but this week’s focus is the cup. They have made it to the final in the previous two campaigns.

Salford, who are backed by Manchester United’s ‘Class of ‘92’ would love to dump City out of the cup but as you’d expect, they are huge underdogs here. They are currently vying for promotion in League Two and have a talented squad at their level. However, this would go down as one of the biggest upsets in the history of the FA Cup.

Pep Guardiola’s side are possession-hungry and capable of controlling possession for large periods in the Premier League, so the visitors may struggle to get a kick here. One team having the lion’s share of the ball usually means fewer throws. City matches have seen the third-fewest throws in the top flight this season with an average of 28.5 but those numbers should be lower here.

Salford’s matches this season have seen an average of 53 throws but they haven’t faced the level of quality that City possess. Pep Guardiola’s side have faced six opponents outside of the Premier League in cup competitions at the Etihad since the start of 2020, those games have seen 26 throws on average.  

• Selection: Under 29.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Tamworth vs Tottenham: Unfamiliar Turf For Tottenham

England, FA Cup, Sunday, 12th January, 12:30 (UK)

There’s another FA Cup mismatch on Sunday as Tamworth host Tottenham. The non-league outfit will be hoping home advantage and the pitch quality act as a leveller as they aim to upset Ange Postecoglou’s side.

Tottenham haven’t enjoyed the first half of the season. They face an uphill battle to qualify for the Champions League and pressure is growing on the manager. The win over Liverpool midweek will have alleviated some pressure but both cup competitions are crucial as the club chase elusive silverware. 

The throw averages increase as you go down the divisions and Tamworth have a long throw specialist in Tom Tonks. The tighter pitch and the underdogs’ reliance on set pieces could mean we see plenty here so over 35.5 throws appeals. 

Under Postecoglou, Tottenham play frantic football. They are capable of controlling games but could get drawn into a scrap here. There were 48 throws when they hosted Liverpool midweek. The trip to Tamworth is reminiscent of Spurs’ away clash with Marine back in 2021. There were 37 throws in that one. 

• Selection: Over 35.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Arsenal vs Manchester United: Amorim Keen to Press the Home Side

England, FA Cup, Sunday, 12th January, 15:00 (UK)

Arsenal suffered a rare home defeat against Newcastle. The loss put them on the brink of an EFL Cup exit so they will want to keep their FA Cup hopes alive. Mikel Arteta has transformed the Gunners into title contenders int recent years but he has been unable to add to the solitary trophy he won in his first season with the club.

Ruben Amorim’s side are unlikely to secure European qualification through their league finish this season so the cup offers them a chance at success. Manchester United drew 2-2 at Anfield in their last game to end a losing run. They need another big performance this weekend. 

The Gunners’ home matches across all competitions this season have seen an average of 31.75 throws per game. They are usually in command in terms of possession but the visitors should press with intensity there. There were 27 throws when these sides met at this ground in December but Amorim has had more time to work with his players and adapt their off-the-ball structure since then.

There were 35 throws as Manchester United drew with Liverpool last weekend and this game could play out in a similar manner. The Red Devils’ away matches this season have seen 32.87 throws on average so over 29.5 appeals here. 

• Selection: Over 29.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

FA Cup Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 11:00, January 9th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

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