Scott Thornton’s Premier League Props: A Must-Win Derby

Scott Thornton is back with six Premier League props bets. The festive season is upon us and the games are coming thick and fast. Things can change very quickly in England’s top flight. 

The first bet of the weekend comes in Newcastle vs Leicester before we look forward to Aston Villa’s trip to the City Ground in Saturday’s first televised fixture. On Sunday, we have a bet on Brighton vs Crystal Palace before the Manchester Derby. There is an additional 19:00 kick-off to look forward to with Southampton taking on Tottenham. West Ham are looking for another Monday Night Football victory when they face Bournemouth.

• Newcastle vs Leicester: Over 28.5 Shots In The Match
• Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa: Under 28.5 Throws In The Match
• Brighton vs Crystal Palace: Under 38.5 Tackles In The Match
• Manchester City vs Manchester United: Under 9.5 Shots For Manchester United
• Southampton vs Tottenham: Over 17.5 Tackles For Tottenham
• Bournemouth vs Wolves: Over 8.5 Goal Kicks For West Ham

Acca odds: 40.90

Newcastle vs Leicester: A Feast of Attacking Football at St. James’s Park

England, Premier League, Saturday, 14th December, 15:00 (UK)

Eddie Howe led Newcastle to Champions League qualification in his first full season in charge but returning to Europe is proving to be a tough ask. The Magpies have failed to win any of their last four Premier League matches and are languishing in the bottom half ahead of the weekend’s action.

Leicester made the controversial decision to sack Steve Cooper but the fans will be buoyed by their first two games under Ruud Van Nistelrooy. They have picked up four points with Ruud at the helm, which has moved them five points clear of the relegation zone.

Newcastle’s most recent home match in the Premier League was a feast of attacking football. They drew 3-3 with Liverpool in that match but most importantly for our bet, there were 33 shots. We could see an end-to-end affair once again. 

Leicester have also shown willingness to get forward under Van Nistelrooy but their defensive frailties remain. The Foxes’ away matches in the Premier League this season have seen an average of 28.86 shots so over 28.5 appeals here. 

• Selection: Over 28.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa: Throws at a Premium When Villa are in Action

England, Premier League, Saturday, 14th December, 17:30 (UK)

Nottingham Forest continued their fantastic start to the season by beating Manchester United at Old Trafford last weekend. They now sit 5th in the Premier League table, just two points behind Pep Guardiola’s reigning champions. A triumph over Aston Villa this weekend would make them real contenders for a European place.

The Villains have struggled after Champions League games this season. They have failed to win any of their five league games after a European game. Unai Emery’s side finished 4th last season but have work to do if they are to reach those heights once again. 

Forest matches see an average of 33.87 throws per game, which is in line with the league average of 33.15. However, there were just 26 throws in this fixture last season. The revere fixture at Villa Park saw 28 throws so we are backing under 28.5 here. 

Aston Villa matches have seen the fewest throws in the Premier League this season with an average of 25.47 per game. There have been 28 throws or less in their last six league games on the road.

• Selection: Under 28.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Brighton vs Crystal Palace: Tackle Numbers Trending Downwards

England, Premier League, Sunday, 15th December, 14:00 (UK)

Brighton are without a win in their last three matches but they remain 7th in the table. They are aiming to earn a place in European competition this season after faltering under Roberto De Zerbi in the last campaign. Fabian Hurzeler appears to be the perfect fit for the Seagulls and they will be hoping to inflict misery on their rivals here.

Oliver Glasner made a huge impact when he took over at Selhurst Park for the closing months of last season but they have endured a tough start to the current one. The Eagles look set for a relegation battle with the team currently 17th. 

There were 39 tackles in this fixture last season but we are tipping under 38.5 this time around. Brighton’s Premier League games at the Amex this season have seen 34.57 tackles on average with this bet winning in five of those seven matches.

Crystal Palace’s away games have seen 35.43 tackles on average. This bet has also landed in five of their seven away matches. 

• Selection: Under 38.5 Tackles In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Manchester City vs Manchester United: Amorim’s Attack Lacks Bite

England, Premier League, Sunday, 15th December, 16:30 (UK)

Manchester City were beaten by Juventus midweek. They now have just one win in their last 10 competitive matches, which has left Pep Guardiola scrambling for solutions. Another defeat for City at the weekend would likely see them drop outside the top four. Thankfully for Pep, their recent record in Manchester Derbies is strong.

Ruben Amorim has suffered back-to-back defeats in the Premier League as United boss. His team had the lion’s share of possession and created the better chances against Nottingham Forest but defensive errors proved costly. United’s chances of making the top four are very slim with the festive fixtures upon us.

City have looked vulnerable this season but they still aren’t conceding many shots at the Etihad. Their opponents have averaged 7.29 at this ground in the Premier League. Only Fulham and Nottingham Forest have exceeded the 9-shot mark.

Manchester United had just five shots in their only league-away game under Amorim so far. The Red Devils had just three shots in this fixture last season and eight when the sides met in the Community Shield in August

• Selection: Under 9.5 Shots For Manchester United (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Southampton vs Tottenham: The Saints are There to be Tackled

England, Premier League, Sunday, 15th December, 19:00 (UK)

Southampton were promoted to the Premier League via the playoffs and haven’t really put up a fight in their opening 15 matches. They have picked up just five points and have the worst goal difference in the division with -20. Russell Martin could find himself out of a job if things don’t improve quickly.

Ange Postecoglou is another manager who is feeling the heat. His Tottenham side narrowly missed out on Champions League qualification in his first season with the club but they are marooned in 11th place ahead of the game against Southampton.

The Saints have lost five of their seven home matches so far but they have put their opponents under enough pressure to force tackles. Southampton are forcing an average of 20.71 tackles per home game, the third most in the Premier League.

Tottenham are making an average of 18.6 tackles per game in the league. Postecoglou likes his side to be aggressive when they don’t have the ball. Spurs had 24 tackles in their most recent league game on the road against Bournemouth. Our bet has landed in five of their seven away games thus far. 

• Selection: Over 17.5 Tackles For Tottenham (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Bournemouth vs West Ham: The Cherries Will Prove to Sweet for the Hammers

England, Premier League, Monday, 16th December, 20:00 (UK)

Bournemouth have continued to progress under Andoni Iraola. They are 8th in the Premier League but the underlying data suggests they should be even higher. The Cherries are the biggest xG underperformers in the division, netting 24 goals from an xG of 33.01. They would sit 3rd if the league was ordered by xPTS.

Julen Lopetegui secured a much-needed win over Wolves on the last Monday Night Football. The former Real Madrid boss might well have faced the sack had his team lost. Another victory here could ease the pressure even more as he looks to build a successful team at West Ham.

The Cherries’ matches have seen the most goal kicks in the Premier League with an average of 17.13. They have shown plenty of attacking impetus, especially in front of their own fans, so they are forcing an average of 10.14 goal kicks per home game.

West Ham’s defensive frailties under Lopetegui have been clear to see. This has meant they are taking an average of 10.71 goal kicks per Premier League away game. 

• Selection:  Over 8.5 Goal Kicks For West Ham (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Premier League Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 11:48, December 12th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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