Scott Thornton’s European Props: Tantalising Title Race in Spain

The Bundesliga and La Liga feature as Scott Thornton delves into the props markets across Europe ahead of the weekend.

In Germany, Eintracht Frankfurt vs Augsburg is our first game before Dortmund head to Monchengladbach on Saturday. Our other Bundesliga bet comes in Hoffenheim vs Freiburg. We’ve got all three title challengers covered in Spain with Real Betis vs Barcelona, Girona vs Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla.

• Eintracht Frankfurt vs Augsburg: Under 11.5 Shots For Augsburg
• Borussia Monchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund: Under 14.5 Shots For Dortmund
• Hoffenheim vs Freiburg: Over 13.5 Shots For Hoffenheim
• Real Betis vs Barcelona: Over 10.5 Shots For Real Betis
• Girona vs Real Madrid: Under 26.5 Shots In The Match
• Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla: Under 15.5 Shots For Atletico Madrid

Acca odds: 38.6

Eintracht Frankfurt vs Augsburg: Toppmoller’s Side are Flying High

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, 7th December, 14:30 (UK)

Eintracht Frankfurt have been the surprise package in the top tier of German football so far. They are 2nd in the league, three points above the reigning champions. Beating Bayern Munich to the title looks a tall order but the team are full of confidence after a run of four victories in the league. 

Augsburg are 13th, five points clear of the relegation playoff place. They’ve got their home form to thank for being outside of the bottom three. On the road, Jess Thorup’s side have been very poor. They have picked up just one point from their five away games. 

Dino Toppmoller’s side are conceding an average of 15.6 shots in their Bundesliga matches in front of their own fans but that number is inflated by the 24 shots they conceded against Munich and Monchengladbach. Under 11.5 shots for the opposition has won in their other three home games.

Our bet has also won in Augsburg’s last four away games in the league. Thorup’s side’s away matches have seen them average just 7.2 shots per game. Augsburg had just six attempts in this fixture last season. 

• Selection: Under 11.5 Shots For Augsburg (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Borussia Monchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund: Dortmund’s Woes on the Road

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, 7th December, 17:30 (UK)

Borussia Monchengladbach’s start to the season has been nothing to shout about. They are 10th in the league after 12 matches. The team finished 14th last season, just a point above the relegation playoff so the six-point gap between themselves and 16th in this campaign will come as a relief for the supporters.

Dortmund are 10 points behind Bayern Munich already so securing a place in the Champions League is the summit of their Bundesliga ambitions. Nuri Sahin was brought in to replace Edin Terzic in the summer and it’s safe to say he hasn’t had it all his own way.

Monchengladbach are conceding an average of 15.83 shots in their home games. However, Dortmund had just 12 shots in this fixture last season and Sahin will have concerns. 

Die Schwarzgelben have really struggled on the road this season. They have failed to win any of their five away matches in the Bundesliga so we are backing them to have 14 shots or less here. Our bet has landed in all of those games and the team are averaging just 7.4 shots during that run. 

• Selection: Under 14.5 Shots For Dortmund (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Hoffenheim vs Freiburg: Head-to-Head Numbers Spell Danger

Germany, Bundesliga, Sunday, 8th December, 16:30 (UK)

Hoffenheim are perilously close to the bottom three heading into this round of fixtures. They finished in the European places last season but replicating that will be hugely difficult given the poor start they have made. Die Kraichgauer have also failed to win any of their last six games against Sunday’s opponent.

Freiburg currently sit 6th in the Bundesliga. They finished 10th last campaign but are currently level on points with Borussia Dortmund. Julian Schuster’s side beat Monchengladbach 3-1 in their last league game, ending a run of four winless matches.

Christian Ilzer’s side had 20 shots against RB Leipzig in their last home game so we should see decent attacking output here. They are averaging 15 shots per league game in front of their own fans so far this season. 

Schuster’s team conceded 19 shots in their last away game against Dortmund. Shot numbers in their away games have been relatively low but the head-to-head data shows more promise. Hoffenheim had 22 shots in this fixture last season and 18 in the reverse. 

• Selection: Over 13.5 Shots For Hoffenheim (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Real Betis vs Barcelona: Betis Ready to Brawl

Spain, La Liga, Saturday, 7th December, 15:15 (UK)

Real Betis have struggled for consistency so far. They are down in 10th place, four points off the guaranteed European football spots. The team are also enduring a poor run in La Liga, having failed to win any of their last four matches. 

Barcelona made a blistering start to the season under Hansi Flick. The team were on course to hit the 100-point mark after 11 games but they struggled in November. The Balugrana dropped points in three consecutive league games so the emphatic 5-1 win over Mallorca will come as a relief. They need to build on that to maintain their advantage over Real Madrid in the title race.

Betis have lost just one of their home games. They have looked dangerous going forward so we are backing them to have plenty of shots against Barcelona. Manuel Pellegrini’s side are averaging 18.43 shots per home game, the second most in the league. They have had 14 shots or more in all seven of their games at the Estadio Benito Villamarin. 

The Blaugrana have conceded 11 shots or more in five of their last seven away games in the league. They allowed Betis to have 14 attempts when they last visited this ground. 

• Selection: Over 10.5 Shots For Real Betis (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Girona vs Real Madrid: Misfiring Los Blancos

Spain, La Liga, Saturday, 7th December, 20:00 (UK)

Girona were involved in the title race at one stage last season but eventually fell away. They still managed to qualify for the Champions League but repeating that feat is proving to be difficult. They are 8th in La Liga, seven points off the top four.

Real Madrid had the chance to seize the initiative in the title race midweek but were beaten by Athletic Bilbao. Kylian Mbappe squandered some good chances so there is pressure on the Frenchman, particularly with Vinicius sidelined through injury. 

Michel’s side’s league matches have seen 20.86 shots on average, the fifth fewest in the top tier of Spanish football. There have been 26 shots or less in five of their seven home games thus far.

Los Blancos’ away games have seen an average of 24.29 attempts. Under 26.5 shots has won in their last four. There were just 19 shots as they were beaten by Bilbao midweek. 

• Selection: Under 26.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla: Cautious Optimism for Atletico

Spain, La Liga, Sunday, 8th December, 20:00 (UK)

Atletico Madrid spent big in the transfer window, bringing in the likes of Julian Alvarez and Conor Gallagher. It took a while for the new players to settle in but they have fought their way into title contention with a tremendous run of results. Diego Simeone’s side have won five of their last six league games. They now sit five points behind Barcelona having played a game less.

Sevilla, on the other hand, are struggling. This is a far cry from the team that won the Europa League but the fans will be delighted to see them well clear of the bottom three after last season’s scare.

Simeone’s side still don’t rack up a huge amount of shots despite looking more dangerous overall. They have had 15 shots or less in their last five league games. Over that period, they are averaging just 11.6 attempts per game. 

Garcia Pimienta’s side have a poor away record but they haven’t afforded their opponents a lot of opportunities to shoot. They are conceding 13.57 shots per away game. Our bet has also won in four of their last five matches away to Atletico.

• Selection: Under 15.5 Shots For Atletico Madrid (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Premier League Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 15:19, December 5th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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