Scott Thornton’s Premier League Props: Best Bets Preview

Scott Thornton is back with six Premier League props bets ahead of Matchday 11 in England’s top flight. 

There is no early kick-off this week so the first of our bets comes in West Ham vs Everton at 15:00. We then look ahead to Manchester City’s trip to Brighton as they look to avoid a fourth consecutive defeat. At 20:00 on Saturday, Liverpool hosts Aston Villa. On Sunday, we have Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle and Manchester United vs Leicester up first. Arsenal head to Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea in what promises to be a mouthwatering clash in the weekend’s final game.

• West Ham vs Everton: Over 12.5 Shots For Everton
• Brighton vs Manchester City: Over 26.5 Throws In The Match
• Liverpool vs Aston Villa: Over 27.5 Free Kicks In The Match
• Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle: Over 28.5 Shots In The Match
• Manchester United vs Leicester: Over 28.5 Shots In The Match
• Chelsea vs Arsenal: Over 33.5 Tackles In The Match

Acca odds: 37.42

West Ham vs Everton: Sticky Situation for the Hammers

England, Premier League, Saturday, 9th November, 15:00 (UK)

West Ham slumped to a 3-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest last weekend. They have been unable to build momentum in the early stages of Julen Lopetegui’s tenure. The Hammers have recorded just three wins in their 10 Premier League matches.

Everton come into the weekend two points behind their opponents. Survival has become the aim for the Toffees in recent seasons but there is hope they can pull away from the bottom three early this time around. However, the defeat at Southampton last weekend is certainly cause for concern.

Lopetegui is known for setting his teams up well defensively but he has struggled to plug the gaps in the West Ham backline. The Hammers have conceded the fourth most shots in the Premier League with an average of 16.1 per game. This decreases to 15.4 at home but is still well above Everton’s shot line.

The Toffees had 22 shots the last time they squared off against West Ham. They are averaging 12 shots per away game so far this season but should exceed this mark against the Hammers’ shaky defence.

• Selection: Over 12.5 Shots For Everton (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Brighton vs Manchester City: Stop the Rot

England, Premier League, Saturday, 9th November, 17:30 (UK)

Brighton have played Liverpool in their last two competitive games and wound up losing both. They took the lead at Anfield last weekend only to be undone by a quickfire double from the home side. The Seagulls have won just one of their last 15 games against the champions but they face a vulnerable City.

Pep Guardiola’s side have lost three consecutive games for the first time since 2018. They were beaten 4-1 by Sporting in the Champions League midweek, just days after they surrendered the top spot in the Premier League. 

The Seagulls’ matches thus far have seen an average of 33 throws per game. The line for this game is set over 26.5, a bet that has won in all 10 of Brighton’s league games under Fabian Hurzeler.

Manchester City haven’t looked as controlled this season. They have just two clean sheets in the Premier League and their inability to suffocate the opposition has led to an increased throw count. Their away matches have seen an average of 30.2 throws with our bet landing in all five. 

• Selection: Over 26.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Liverpool vs Aston Villa: Higher Foul Count at Anfield

England, Premier League, Saturday, 9th November, 20:00 (UK)

Liverpool are in the driving seat at this stage. Arne Slot has made a wonderful start to life in the Premier League. Many were unsure with how the Reds would fare following the departure of Jurgen Klopp but the Dutchman has evolved the team over the course of the opening months. 

Unai Emery is targeting a top-four finish with Aston Villa once again. His team had been enjoying a triumphant return to the Champions League but defeat in Brugge rounded off what was a miserable few days for the Villains.

There were 34 free-kicks the last time that Liverpool took on Aston Villa. There have been 28 free-kicks or more in the Reds’ last three league matches and this one looks set for a few.

Aston Villa matches have seen the second most fouls in the Premier League with an average of 25.6 per game. Bet365’s free-kicks market also includes offsides and Emery’s side’s matches see an average of 3.3 per game. 

• Selection: Over 27.5 Free Kicks In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle: Goal Kick Numbers Show Promise

England, Premier League, Sunday, 10th November, 14:00 (UK)

Nottingham Forest have arguably been the biggest surprise of the season so far. They were battling relegation when Nuno Espirito Santo was appointed last December but their start to the 2024/25 campaign will have them looking up. Forest are 3rd in the Premier League, just six points off top. 

Newcastle have made a disappointing start. They were unable to secure European qualification last term but the reduced schedule hasn’t been of much use so far. Nevertheless, there are signs of a turnaround. Eddie Howe’s side recorded a win over Arsenal last weekend.

Forest matches are averaging 15.3 goal kicks per game, the fifth most in the top tier of English football. Nuno’s side have taken more goal kicks than other team. There were 17 goal kicks in this fixture last season and 24 when the teams met at St James’s Park.

Eddie Howe’s side’s matches on the road have seen an average of 17.2 goal kicks. There have been 15 or more in four of those five games. 

• Selection: Over 14.5 Goal Kicks In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Manchester United vs Leicester: Ruud to Bow Out with Attacking Display

England, Premier League, Sunday, 10th November, 14:00 (UK)

Manchester United had to settle for a draw at home to Chelsea last weekend. The clash with Leicester will be Ruud Van Nistelrooy’s final game as interim boss with Ruben Amorim scheduled to take over at the start of the international break.

The Foxes were beaten 5-2 at Old Trafford at the end of October. Steve Cooper chose to rest some key players in that fixture and his team paid the price. They will be hoping to show more fight this time around. 

Van Nistelrooy will want his team to put on a show in his final game in charge. Manchester United racked up a total of 23 shots when these sides met in the League Cup last month and there were 39 in the match. The last league meeting between these sides at this ground saw 45 shots. 

Leicester have shown plenty of attacking impetus under Steve Cooper but there are some defensive frailties. Their matches have seen 28.9 shots on average as a result, the third most in the division.

• Selection: Over 28.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Chelsea vs Arsenal: Local Rivalry to Inflate Tackle Numbers

England, Premier League, Sunday, 10th November, 16:30 (UK)

The highlight of the weekend in the Premier League is the North West London Derby. Chelsea have a slender lead over the Gunners coming into this clash but they haven’t beaten Arsenal at Stamford Bridge since 2018. 

Arsenal are hoping to wrestle the title from Manchester City this season after falling just short in the previous campaign. However, Mikel Arteta’s side have suffered a few setbacks and could find themselves 10 points off the pace by the end of Matchday 11.

Chelsea matches haven’t seen a great deal of tackles this season. The average of 33 per Blues’ game is the fifth lowest in the league but this trend should go out of the window when they play Arsenal. There have been 34 tackles or more in four of the last five head-to-heads between the sides with an average of 36.4 tackles per game. 

There were 40 tackles as the Gunners were beaten by Newcastle last weekend. It should be another hard-fought affair as they aim to move above their rivals. 

• Selection: Over 33.5 Tackles In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Premier League Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 13:26, November 7th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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