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Mixed martial arts Scott Thornton’s FA Cup Props: Plymouth Aim to Cause another Upset
Scott Thornton brings you his best bets for a busy weekend in the FA Cup with several of the Premier League’s European hopefuls in action.
The first of our matches is Crystal Palace vs Millwall on Saturday. Later that day, we look ahead to Bournemouth vs Wolves before Plymouth aim to cause another major upset when they take on Manchester City. Sunday’s games see Newcastle host Brighton and Fulham head to Old Trafford. On Monday night, Nottingham Forest face Ipswich.
- Crystal Palace vs Millwall: Over 18.5 Tackles For Crystal Palace
- Bournemouth vs Wolves: Under 27.5 Shots In The Match
- Manchester City vs Plymouth: Over 30.5 Throws In The Match
- >Newcastle vs Brighton: Under 27.5 Free Kicks In The Match
- Manchester United vs Fulham: Over 35.5 Tackles In The Match
- Nottingham Forest vs Ipswich: Over 32.5 Throws In The Match
Acca odds: 37.42
The Football Betting Podcast: OUT NOW!!
The Football Betting Podcast (And Daniele!) is back as the FA Cup fifth round replaces Premier League action for one weekend only. Will Plymouth Argyle serve up another scalp? Do Bournemouth and Crystal Palace have a chance at silverware?
Best bets, tips, predictions, and more from the Premier League, Championship and League Two on The Football Betting Podcast, powered by bettingexpert.
TIMESTAMPS:
(06:00) – 1ST BET: Can they win all three?
(16:47) – 2ND BET: Burton vs Mansfield
(21:33) – 3RD BET: Crystal Palace vs Millwall
(26:30) – 4TH BET: Napoli vs Inter
(33:00) – 5TH BET: Bournemouth vs Wolves
(37:47) – 6TH BET: Man City vs Plymouth Argyle
(43:33) – 7TH BET: Feyenoord vs NEC Nijmegen
(48:38) – POD TREBLE
Apple Podcasts: tinyurl.com/ymezjxu4
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YouTube: tinyurl.com/ub6bndaz
Crystal Palace vs Millwall: Soaring Tackle Numbers for the Eagles
England, FA Cup, Saturday, 1st March, 12:15 (UK)
Crystal Palace head into the FA Cup weekend on the back of a 4-1 win over Aston Villa in the Premier League. The Eagles have shown they can compete with the best teams in the country under Oliver Glasner and making it deeper into the cup would be a huge boost. They last reached the final of this competition in 2016, when Manchester United beat them in extra time.
Millwall are firmly in midtable in the Championship. They are six points off Blackburn, who occupy the final playoff place. It would take an exceptional end to the season for the Lions to finish in that top six so a cup run is a welcome distraction. They have lost just one of their last nine competitive matches and could cause problems for the Premier League outfit here.
Glasner’s men are making the most tackles in the Premier League this season with an average of 21.67 per game. The do or die nature of a cup tie also lends itself nicely to tackles. Crystal Palace are the favourites but should still rack up the tackles. They made 19 in the last round against Doncaster.
The Lions forced 21 tackles as they beat Leeds, a team that are sailing towards the Premier League, in the last round of this competition. They are also forcing an average of 23 tackles per game across all competitions since Harris took over.
- Selection: Over 18.5 Tackles For Crystal Palace (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.83
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 8/10
Bournemouth vs Wolves: Iraola’s Men in Control
England, FA Cup, Saturday, 1st March, 15:00 (UK)
Bournemouth came out as the losers in an end-to-end clash with Brighton at the Amex Stadium midweek but they will be keen to exert more control against Wolves. The Cherries’ underlying data in the Premier League is hugely impressive. Only Liverpool and Arsenal have a better xPTS (expected points) tally. They could prove to be dark horses in the FA Cup.
Vitor Pereira has overseen slight improvement at Wolves since taking charge but they aren’t out of the woods in terms of the relegation battle just yet. They sit five points clear of the bottom three but will fancy their chances of finishing ahead of the newly-promoted three. The Old Gold now face a stern test in the cup.
The Cherries were beaten 1-0 by Wolves at this ground just over a week ago but sending off for Illia Zabarnyi was a major contributing factor. There were just 21 shots in that encounter and we are hoping to see a similar amount here with the home side more likely to have the lion’s share this time around.
Wolves’ away matches across all competitions this season have seen an average of 25.41 shots. Therefore, over under 27.5 shots appeals here. This bet has landed in the two competitive meetings between the teams this season.
- Selection: Under 27.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.90
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Manchester City vs Plymouth: A Plymouth Trend Under Muslic
England, FA Cup, Saturday, 1st March, 17:15 (UK)
The FA Cup is Pep Guardiola’s last opportunity to avoid a second trophyless season of his managerial career. Manchester City have become the dominant force in English football under the Catalan boss but the club’s failure to bolster the squad in the summer, along with an injury to Rodri, mean they face a fight to make it into the top four. City have made it to the last two FA Cup finals and will have their sights set on the showpiece once again.
Plymouth are likely to be relegated to the third tier of English football but that hasn’t stopped them causing a stir in the cup. They beat Liverpool in the last round thanks to a wonderful display with and without the ball. Miron Muslić has the backing of the fans and will hope to channel their energy into another memorable performance here.
The number of throws in Manchester City matches has gone up this season, with Pep’s team struggling to dominate as they did. Their Premier League outings have seen an average of 29.07 per game but we should see more in this cup clash. They faced Championship opposition at the Etihad in the EFL Cup in the form of Watford earlier in the campaign. There were 35 throws in that one so we are backing over the line of 30.5 set by the bookmakers here.
Under their new boss, Plymouth are keen to press high up the pitch. This approach has meant their matches have seen plenty of throws with an average of 51.27. There were 48 throws when they faced Liverpool in the last round so let’s hope they can harass City in a similar manner.
- Selection: Over 30.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.72
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 8/10
Newcastle vs Brighton: Lenient Anthony Taylor
England, FA Cup, Sunday, 2nd March, 13:45 (UK)
Newcastle put in a toothless display at Anfield midweek, managing just three attempts as they succumbed to a 2-0 defeat. Eddie Howe will want to see a response from his team here. The Magpies haven’t won silverware since 1955. They have the chance to end that drought in the EFL Cup final but they will also be targeting success in the FA Cup.
Brighton are just four points off 4th in the Premier League after beating Bournemouth midweek. Fabian Hurzeler’s side have been exceptional in the big games this season and they need another top performance to get a result at St. James’s Park.
Both Newcastle and Brighton matches average around 23 fouls and four offsides per game in the Premier League. However, the FA Cup averages fewer fouls than England’s top flight so we are backing in betting on under 27.5 free kicks here. This bet has won in seven of Newcastle’s eight cup matches this season with those games seeing an average of 22.38 free kicks.
The Seagulls have already faced Newcastle at this ground in this campaign and there were just 23 free kicks. Moreover, Anthony Taylor is at the whistle for this one. Taylor is awarding an average of 21.13 fouls per game, the fifth-fewest of any referee in the top flight.
- Selection: Under 27.5 Free Kicks In The Match (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.83
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 8/10
Manchester United vs Fulham: Amorim Demands Intensity in the Tackle
England, FA Cup, Sunday, 2nd March, 16:30 (UK)
Manchester United were fortunate to snatch all three points against Ipswich midweek. They grabbed the winning goal with 10 men on the pitch to ensure they stay away from the perils of the relegation battle. The Red Devils made a habit of winning silverware under Erik Ten Hag but Ruben Amorim has a lot of work to do in order to repeat that.
Fulham are nine points above United in the Premier League and will fancy their chances when they rock up to Old Trafford. Marco Silva’s side were unfortunate in both of their 1-0 defeats against United this season. They did manage to secure a win at this ground last season.
The Red Devils’ matches have seen the third most tackles in the Premier League this season with an average of 39.33 per game. There have been 36 or more tackles in six of their last seven games at Old Trafford across all competitions. This includes the game against Leicester in the last round of the cup, which saw 47 tackles.
Tackles numbers are far lower when Fulham take to the field but there were 45 tackles when they last played United at this ground. Both of their FA Cup matches so far this season have also reached the 40 tackle mark.
- Selection: Over 35.5 Tackles In The Match (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.90
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 8/10
Nottingham Forest vs Ipswich: Cup Numbers Show Promise
England, FA Cup, Monday, 3rd March, 19:30 (UK)
Nottingham Forest held Arsenal to a draw on Wednesday night as they continue to target Champions League qualification. The team have ample time to prepare for this fixture so don’t expect tired legs to be an issue. Nuno Espirito Santo will view this as an opportunity to clinch silverware.
Ipswich look set to return to the second tier after earning their place in the Premier League via back-to-back promotions. The Tractor Boys were unable to make the man advantage count against Manchester United midweek. The cup looks to be their only chance of salvaging some joy in the closing months of the season.
Forest’s home matches in the Premier League have seen an average of 31.46 throws but we are banking on this game exceeding that mark with the line set at 32.5. Nottingham Forest’s two FA Cup games thus far have seen 39 and 38 throws.
The Tractor Boys have already travelled to the City Ground to face Forest this season and there were 45 throws in that one. Our bet has also landed with ease in both of their FA Cup matches in this campaign.
- Selection: Over 32.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.80
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 8/10
FA Cup Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 11:15, February 27th, 2025. Odds may now differ.
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