Scott Thornton’s European Props: Title Races in Focus

Scott Thornton delves into the action from the Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A as we prepare for another tantalising weekend of title races.

In Germany, we have three bets. First up on Saturday is Werder Bremen vs Monchengladbach before RB Leipzig vs Dortmund. Sunday’s Bundesliga bet comes in Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel. Villarreal host Real Madrid on Saturday in the first of our Spanish games. On Sunday, Atletico Madrid face Barcelona. Inter head to Bergamo on Sunday to play Atalanta as they aim to hold on to top spot.

• Werder Bremen vs Monchengladbach: Over 27.5 Shots In The Match
• RB Leipzig vs Dortmund: Over 11.5 Shots For Dortmund
• Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel: Over 13.5 Shots For Heidenheim
• Villarreal vs Real Madrid: Over 12.5 Shots For Villarreal
• Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: Over 13.5 Shots For Barcelona
• Atalanta vs Inter: Over 12.5 Shots For Atalanta

Acca odds: 39.08

Werder Bremen vs Monchengladbach: Shots Galore When These Teams Square Off

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, 15th March, 14:30 (UK)

Werder Bremen earned a surprise win over Bayer Leverkusen last weekend. The win moved them up to 13th in the table, well clear of the relegation battle. It also ended a run of four consecutive defeats. They will be hoping to build even more confidence when they take to the field this weekend. 

Borussia Monchengladbach were beaten by Mainz on matchday 25 but their recent away form has been strong. They have won their last three league matches on the road. Gerardo Seoane’s side also managed to beat Bremen 4-1 when the teams met earlier in the season. 

Bremen’s league matches have seen an average of 25.68 attempts but we are backing over 27.5 here. There were 31 shots when they faced Monchengladbach earlier this season. The last meeting between the teams at this ground saw 35 shots. 

Monchengladbach matches have seen the third most shots in the German top flight with an average of 28.08 per game. There were 33 shots in their last away match against Bochum and we should see plenty here. 

• Selection: Over 27.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

RB Leipzig vs Dortmund: An Increase in Shots Under Kovac

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, 15th March, 17:30 (UK)

This one is the highlight of the footballing weekend in Germany. RB Leipzig are enduring a rough run. They have won just one of their last nine league matches, leaving them 6th in the table. Marco Rose will need his team to improve if he is to remain at the club beyond this season.

Dortmund have already made a managerial change this season. Niko Kovac has come in and got the team into the quarter-finals of the Champions League, but he is having a hard time turning their league form around. They are seven points off the top four and languishing in the bottom half ahead of this one. 

RB Leipzig are conceding an average of 14.16 shots per game in the Bundesliga this season. Mainz, Leipzig’s opponents in their last home match, managed 15 attempts. Marco Rose’s side conceded 20 shots against BVB in the reverse fixture and 12 the last time they played them at this ground.  

Under Kovac, Dortmund have been getting more shots away. In his 10 matches in charge across all competitions, the team have averaged 16.1 shots per match. This number rises to 17.2 if we only include the data from his league games as boss. Over 11.5 looks very doable here. 

• Selection: Over 11.5 Shots For Dortmund (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel: Do-or-Die at the Bottom

Germany, Bundesliga, Sunday, 16th March, 16:30 (UK)

This one is a mammoth clash at the bottom of the Bundesliga. Only three points will do for each of these teams so we should see an end-to-end affair. Heidenheim are bottom, having picked up 16 points from 25 matches. They are four points from the relegation playoff place and six from safety. The team have failed to win any of their last eight league matches. 

Holstein Kiel sit in 17th, a point above Sunday’s opponents. Marcel Rapp’s side picked up their first away win of the season in their last match on the road. They beat Union Berlin 1-0 to move ahead of Heidenheim. 

Frank Schmidt’s side know they need to win this one against Holstein Kiel. They had 17 when the teams met at the Holstein-Stadion back in November. Heidenheim also managed 21 shots the last time they faced this opponent at home. 

Kiel have conceded the most shots in the Bundesliga with an average of 16.76 per game. They have allowed their opponents to have 14 shots or more in 11 of their 12 away games so far this season, conceding an average of 18.08 attempts in the process. 

• Selection: Over 13.5 Shots For Heidenheim (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Villarreal vs Real Madrid: Fatigue an Issue for Los Blancos

Spain, La Liga, Saturday, 15th March, 17:30 (UK)

Villarreal have lost just two of their last 10 league games. However, Real Betis’ good run of form means they face a fight to finish 5th, which could be enough to gain entry into the Champions League. The Yellow Submarine were beaten by Alaves last weekend and face a tough test here.

Real Madrid edged past Atletico Madrid in the Champions League via a penalty shootout on Wednesday night. They will be hoping fatigue doesn’t kick in as they attempt to keep pace with Barcelona in the race for the La Liga title.

Marcelino Garcia Toral’s team have averaged 14.9 shots per league home game. They have reached the 13 shot mark in their last seven, a run that dates back to November 9th. Villarreal should get shots away in the latter stages as fatigue sets in for the Real players. 

Los Blancos have conceded 20 and 18 shots in their last two La Liga matches with their focus being on the Champions League.  Real also conceded 21 shots the last time they squared off against Villarreal at this ground. 

• Selection: Over 12.5 Shots For Villarreal (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona: The Blaugrana Smell Blood

Spain, La Liga, Sunday, 16th March, 20:00 (UK)

This is yet another blockbuster clash at the top of the table. Atletico Madrid will also be feeling the effects on Wednesday night’s Madrid Derby but they have an extra day to prepare. Diego Simeone’s side are a point behind Barcelona having played a game more so they cannot afford to lose here.

Hansi Flick will be very aware of the threat posed by Atleti. Barcelona led 4-2 in the first leg clash at the Camp Nou a couple of weeks ago but wound up drawing 4-4. They were also beaten 2-1 in the reverse fixture. 

Atletico Madrid concede an average of 11 shots per game in the league but tired legs could be a problem here. Their last league home game against Athletic Club saw them concede 15 attempts. They have conceded 16 and 19 shots in their competitive matches against Barca this season. 

Barcelona have had the most shots in the Spanish top flight with an average of 17.15 per game. Their away game shot average is 15.29. This is a golden opportunity for the Blaugrana to put breathing space between them and one of their title rivals so expect them to put their best foot forward. 

• Selection: Over 13.5 Shots For Barcelona (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Atalanta vs Inter: Gasperini’s Men Full of Confidence

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, 16th March, 19:45 (UK)

We have another key clash in a title race to finish off. Atalanta beat Juventus 4-0 last weekend and can move above Inter on goal difference if they manage to secure all three points here. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side are aiming to win their first Scudetto.

Inter are the league leaders coming into the weekend, but it is very much a three-horse race. Simone Inzaghi’s team won the title with ease last season. They were in Champions League action midweek, so tiredness could be an issue. However, the Nerazzurri will take confidence from the fact they have won their last seven against Atalanta. 

Gasperini’s men know this is a huge opportunity so we should see some scintillating attacking football from them. Atalanta have averaged 15.62 shots per home game in Serie A and managed 19 attempts away at Juventus last weekend so over 12.5 appeals here. 

Inter have faced Napoli and Juventus in their last two away games, the other teams who make up the top four. In those matches, they have conceded 19 and 16 attempts. Inzaghi’s side conceded 15 shots when they faced Atalanta in the Super Cup earlier in the year. 

• Selection: Over 12.5 Shots For Atalanta (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

European  Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 08:29, March 14th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

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