Scott Thornton’s European Props: Best Bets Preview

Scott Thornton brings you his picks from the Bundesliga, La Liga and Serie A after a profitable weekend last time out.

In Germany, we have bets for Holstein Kiel vs Bayer Leverkusen and Dortmund vs Union Berlin before Bayer Munich are in action when they take on Eintracht Frankfurt at the Allianz Arena. Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal is the first of our Spanish games. The other sees Real Madrid look to get their title challenge back on track against Girona. In Italy, Atalanta are looking to exorcise their demons by beating Empoli. 

• Holstein Kiel vs Bayer Leverkusen: Over 26.5 Shots In The Match
• Dortmund vs Union Berlin: Over 15.5 Shots For Dortmund
• Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt: Over 27.5 Shots In The Match
• Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal: Over 27.5 Shots In The Match
• Real Madrid vs Girona: Over 17.5 Shots For Real Madrid
• Empoli vs Atalanta: Over 15.5 Shots For Atalanta

Acca odds: 42.03

Holstein Kiel vs Bayer Leverkusen: Mismatch Should Help Shot Count Soar

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, 22nd February, 14:30 (UK)

Holstein Kiel are bottom of the Bundesliga. Avoiding relegation would take an extraordinary run of form from now until the end of the season and nothing they have shown in recent weeks suggests they are capable of it. The team are currently eighth points from safety and three points behind the relegation playoff place.

Bayer Leverkusen are the reigning German champions but their hopes of retaining their title are fading fast. They were the better team against Bayern Munich last week but could only manage a 0-0 draw. Xabi Alonso’s men are eight points behind the leaders with 12 games to go.

Marcel Rapp’s side have had the fewest shots in the Bundesliga with an average of 10.17 per game but they are conceding plenty. Over 26.5 shots has landed in six of their last seven league games with those matches averaging 29.14 shots. 

Leverkusen’s away matches have seen 25.3 shots on average but their most recent saw 28. They are capable of exceeding the 20-shot mark by themselves against lowly opposition. Alonso’s men had 23 of the 31 shots in the reverse fixture. 

• Selection: Over 26.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Dortmund vs Union Berlin: Kovac is Making Changes

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, 22nd February, 14:30 (UK)

Borussia Dortmund coasted through to the next phase of the Champions League but returning to the competition next season could prove problematic. They are currently 11th in the Bundesliga after a miserable first half of the season under Nuri Sahin. Niko Kovac is now in charge with the team eight points behind 4th place.

Union Berlin are just two places behind Dortmund but there is a six-point gap between the sides. They have won just two of their last 15 matches in the German top flight but did manage to beat Dortmund 2-1 in the reverse fixture. Avoiding relegation is the focus for Union and three points here would move them well clear of the playoff. 

Kovac has taken charge of four games as Dortmund boss and his team have hit the 16-shot mark in all of those games. They had 19 attempts against Sporting despite taking a 3-0 lead into the game. Expect them to show plenty of attacking impetus once again.

Union have played three away matches since the winter break and conceded 16 attempts in all of them. Those games were all against teams who currently reside in the bottom five. 

• Selection: Over 15.5 Shots For Dortmund (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Bayern Munich vs Eintracht Frankfurt: Eintracht’s Shot Trend

Germany, Bundesliga, Sunday, 23rd February, 16:30 (UK)

Bayern Munich needed an injury-time goal against Celtic to secure a place in the last 16 of the Champions League. That came off the back of a disappointing performance against Leverkusen so Vincent Kompany will want to see a response here. The Bavarians are on course to regain their crown but they need to improve if they are to compete with Europe’s elite.

Eintracht Frankfurt have been excellent this term. They are third in the league and are on course to qualify for the Champions League. Omar Marmoush, the club’s leading scorer, departed for Manchester City last month but remain a force.

Kompany’s side averages the most shots in the Bundesliga with 19.18 per game. They are also conceding the fewest but they face a Frankfurt side who are capable of contributing to the overall count. There were 30 attempts when the teams met earlier in the campaign and 30 the last time they squared off at this ground. 

Dino Toppmöller’s side’s matches have seen the most attempts in the Bundesliga with an average of 30.23 per game, well above the line of 27.5 set by the bookmakers here. 

• Selection: Over 27.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal: Toe-to-Toe in Vallecano

Spain, La Liga, Saturday, 22nd February, 15:15 (UK)

Rayo Vallecano currently occupy 6th spot in La Liga. European football is the aim for the home side and a win over Villarreal, who are one place above them, would be a huge boost. Vallecano showed plenty of fight as they were narrowly beaten at the Camp Nou last weekend but we should see more in the way of attacking intent here.

Villarreal have been the league’s great entertainers. They have scored the third most goals in the division with an average of 1.96 but they have also had more than their fair share of defensive woes. The Yellow Submarine are conceding an average of 1.46 goals per league game.

With both teams poised to attack, we are backing over 27.5 shots here. There were 32 attempts when these sides locked horns earlier in the season. Rayo Vallecano home matches have seen an average of 28.64 shots with this bet landing in their last three.

The Yellow Submarine’s last away match saw 29 attempts. The last time they faced a team in the top six on the road there were 31 shots. 

• Selection: Over 27.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Real Madrid vs Girona: Carlo’s Fearsome Forwards

Spain, La Liga, Sunday, 23rd February, 15:15 (UK)

Real Madrid coasted past Manchester City midweek but they have lost ground in the La Liga title race. Barcelona hold the top spot coming into this round of fixtures after Carlo Ancelotti’s men dropped points against Osasuna last weekend.

Girona were contesting the title with Los Blancos at one stage of last season. However, they have failed to build on that success and now sit 10th in La Liga. Michel’s team have just one win in their last seven matches across all competitions and have a miserable record against Real Madrid.

Ancelotti’s forward line has really clicked of late. Kylian Mbappe is at his brilliant best and is working well with the likes of Vinicius, Rodrygo and Bellingham. As a result, Real are having a boatload of shots. Their last five La Liga matches have seen them average 21.4 attempts.

Michel’s team are conceding an average of 13.17 shots per away match. However, they allowed Athletic Club to have 23 shots in their most recent away game. Los Blancos are capable of reaching similar numbers. 

• Selection: Over 17.5 Shots For Real Madrid (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Empoli vs Atalanta: Gasperini Will Want a Reaction

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, 23rd February, 17:00 (UK)

Empoli haven’t won since their 4-1 triumph over Verona on December 8th.  Since then, they have picked up just two points from their 10 league matches. They suffered a 3-0 defeat away to Udinese last weekend and could find themselves in the relegation zone come Monday.

Atalanta still have the chance to win the Scudetto but a recent blip has seen them fall five points behind the league leaders, Napoli. Gian Pierro Gasperini’s side suffered a shock exit from the Champions League midweek as they were beaten by Brugge, making them one of three Italian teams to be eliminated in the round of 16 playoff. 

Roberto D’aversa’s side have conceded the most shots in Serie A with an average of 15.24 per game. Their opponents have reached the 16-shot mark in four of their last five games and we are banking on that happening here.

Gasperini’s team average the third most shots in the league with 14.72 but they can exceed that here. They have had over 15.5 shots in their last eight games against Empoli with an average of 25.88 shots per match. 

• Selection: Over 15.5 Shots For Atalanta (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

European Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 15:50, February 20th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

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