Scott Thornton’s European Props: Five Best Bets

Scott Thornton brings you his props bets for the European football action this week. 

In the Bundesliga, Niko Kovac is looking to make a positive start to life at Borussia Dortmund when they face Stuttgart. Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin also looks set to be an enthralling encounter before Eintracht Frankfurt head to Monchengladbach. In Serie A, Empoli are aiming to shock Milan before Lazio face Monza on Sunday.

• Borussia Dortmund vs Stuttgart: Under 25.5 Shots In The Match
• Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin: Over 13.5 Shots For Hoffenheim
• Borussia Monchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt: Over 26.5 Shots In The Match
• Empoli vs Milan: Over 24.5 Shots In The Match
• Lazio vs Monza: Under 25.5 Shots In The Match
• Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid: Over 13.5 Shots For Real Madrid

Acca odds: 28.83

Borussia Dortmund vs Stuttgart: Kovac Keen to Tighten Up

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, 8th February, 14:30 (UK)

Borussia Dortmund have turned to Niko Kovac as they attempt to turn their season around. Nuri Sahin had an exceptional home record as manager but their away form means they are languishing in 11th place in the Bundesliga. This will be Kovac’s first game in charge and he will be hoping for a winning start. 

Stuttgart finished 2nd last season but there has been a dropoff this term. They have won just one of their last four matches across all competitions and sit just outside of the Champions League places as a result. 

Dortmund’s matches have seen the second-fewest shots in the Bundesliga with an average of 23.7 per game. There will be a change of style under Kovac but his Wolfsburg side’s games also had the second fewest shots in the German top flight last.

Shot numbers have waned in Stuttgart’s recent outings. They have played eight competitive fixtures since the winter break and under 25.5 attempts has won in seven of those with an average of 21.13 shots per game. 

• Selection: Under 25.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin: The Home Side Hungry For Victory

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, 8th February, 14:30 (UK)

This promises to be one of the more intriguing clashes in the Bundesliga this weekend. Just two points separate these teams after 20 games and both are dangerously close to the relegation playoff place. Hoffenheim were beaten by Bayer Leverkusen last weekend and now have just one win in their last nine league games. 

Union Berlin are also enduring a torrid run of form. Their only win in their last 13 Bundesliga matches came at home to Mainz. Union’s only away win of the campaign thus far came against Holstein Kiel, who have picked up just 12 points.

Despite their struggles, only four teams are averaging more shots per game than Hoffenheim in the league this season. They are having 16.2 shots per home match on average and should have a few here. Christian Ilzer’s team have had 14 or more shots in their last five league games at the PreZero Arena. 

Union’s last two away games have come against St. Pauli and Heidenheim, teams who are also battling relegation. Their opponents had 16 shots in both of those outings so backing over 13.5 for Hoffenheim looks a good bet here. Union Berlin conceded 18 shots in this fixture last season. 

• Selection: Over 13.5 Shots For Hoffenheim (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Borussia Monchengladbach vs Eintracht Frankfurt: Top of the Shots

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, 8th February, 17:30 (UK)

Borussia Monchengladbach are 7th in the league but are within touching distance of the top four. They earned an impressive 2-1 away win over Stuttgart last weekend and are looking to continue that momentum against another tough opponent. Monchengladbach haven’t beaten Frankfurt since 2021. 

Eintracht Frankfurt are soaring high in the Bundesliga. They are 3rd and will fancy their chances of qualifying for the Champions League and a run of five league matches unbeaten since the winter break.  They are currently six points clear of Stuttgart, who occupy 5th place. 

There were 36 shots in the match when these teams last met in the league back in September. Monchengladbach’s matches have also seen the second most shots in the division with 28.35 on average. 

Frankfurt matches have seen the most shots in the league this season with an average of 30.6, a stark contrast to the last campaign when their matches saw the fewest attempts in the German top flight. There have been 27 shots or more in nine of their 10 Bundesliga matches on the road thus far. Eintracht’s last away game saw a huge 36 shots.

• Selection: Over 26.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Empoli vs Milan: Shot Stats Soar Under Sergio

Italy, Serie A, Saturday, 8th February, 17:00 (UK)

Empoli just about have their heads above water heading into matchday 24. They are 16th, a point clear of the bottom three. A defeat against Milan could well see them drop into the relegation zone. Roberto D’Aversa’s team’s last victory came against Verona on December 8th. Since then, they have picked up just two points from eight league outings. 

Milan have also struggled this season. They made a slow start under Paulo Fonseca and it ultimately cost him his job. Sergio Conceicao now has a mountain to climb as he attempts to steer the club into the Champions League. 

There were 33 shots when Empoli faced Juventus last weekend and we are hoping for plenty once again. Over 24.5 shots has won in four of their last five head-to-heads with Milan with an average of 27.8 per game. 

Under the new boss, the Rossoneri’s matches have seen plenty of goalmouth action. Conceicao’s 10 matches in charge have seen an average of 27.4 shots and our bet has won in eight of the last nine. 

• Selection: Over 24.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Lazio vs Monza: A Professional Display Against Strugglers

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, 9th February, 14:00 (UK)

Lazio will be reasonably happy with how the season has panned out so far. They are 4th in Serie A and topped the first phase of the Europa League. Earning a place in the Champions League is a top priority but they need to end their run of four home matches in the league without a win here. 

Monza are bottom and look destined to go down. They have amassed just 13 points after 23 matches, leaving them eight points from safety already. It would be regarded as a great escape should they avoid relegation from here but beating Lazio would be a good start.  

Marco Baroni’s side’s home matches have seen an average of just 22.92 shots per game in Serie A, well below the league average of 24.78 shots in a match. They are conceding just 9.08 attempts per game and the overall match count should be low against a Monza side that are struggling. 

Monza’s away matches have seen an average of just 21 shots per game with the league’s bottom side contributing to that with 6.73. Under 25.5 shots has landed in six of their last seven away games in Serie A.  There were just 24 shots the last time they played at this ground. 

• Selection: Under 25.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid: Lethal Los Blancos

Spain, La Liga, Saturday, 8th February, 20:00 (UK)

Real Madrid were beaten 1-0 by Espanyol in their last league outing meaning they sit just a point above their opponents heading into this highly-anticipated Madrid Derby. Los Blancos won the league with ease last season but defeat here would certainly put them on the backfoot this term with Barcelona also following closely. 

Diego Simeone was allowed to spend big in order to bolster his squad in the summer and it has certainly had the desired effect. Atletico Madrid look menacing in La Liga and the Champions League. A win at the Santiago Bernabeu would show they mean business.

Los Blancos have been getting plenty of shots away in their recent matches so we are banking on them having at least 14 here. Real Madrid are averaging 17.3 attempts per league game at the Santiago Bernabeu this season. Our bet has also won in their last nine competitive matches.

Atletico Madrid aren’t conceding a lot of shots but this tends to change when they take on Real away from the Riyadh Air Metropolitana. Los Colchoneros have conceded 16 shots or more in their last four games against Real where they haven’t had home advantage.

• Selection: Over 13.5 Shots For Real Madrid (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

European Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 14:08, February 6th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

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