Scott Thornton’s European Props: Sinking Submarines

Scott Thornton is back with his European props bets. This week’s picks come from Germany, Italy and Spain.

In the Bundesliga, we look ahead to Bayern Munich’s trip to Mainz before Monchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel. Atalanta are looking to maintain their advantage at the top of Serie A on Saturday. Our other bet in Italy comes in Bologna vs Fiorentina. We’ll watch our La Liga bets unfold in Atletico Madrid vs Getafe and Villarreal vs Real Betis.

• Mainz vs Bayern Munich: Under 9.5 Shots For Mainz
• Borussia Monchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel: Over 11.5 Shots For Holstein Kiel
• Cagliari vs Atalanta: Over 10.5 Shots For Cagliari
• Bologna vs Fiorentina: Over 12.5 Shots For Bologna
• Atletico Madrid vs Getafe: Under 22.5 Shots In The Match
• Villarreal vs Real Betis: Under 27.5 Shots In The Match

Acca odds: 40.90

Mainz vs Bayern Munich: Kompany’s Men Set to Dominate

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, 14th December, 14:30 (UK)

Mainz were beaten 4-3 in their last Bundesliga outing, ending a run of three straight victories. They sit 9th in the table heading into the weekend, just two points behind Dortmund who are 6th. Die Nullfünfer finished just two points above the relegation playoff last season. The fast start this campaign has come as a welcome surprise.

Bayern Munich relinquished their Bundesliga crown to Bayer Leverkusen but they are poised to get it back under Vincent Kompany. The Bavarians look deadly and are enjoying a six-point cushion ahead of matchday 14.

Bo Henriksen’s side will see very little of the ball here and will likely be starved of opportunities. Mainz had just 21% possession in this fixture last season, managing just six attempts. 

Unsurprisingly, Kompany’s side have conceded the fewest shots in the Bundesliga with an average of just five per game. Under 9.5 shots for their opponents has landed in six of Bayern’s seven away games in the league thus far. 

• Selection: Under 9.5 Shots For Mainz (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Borussia Monchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel: Attack is the Best Form of Defence for the Visitors

Germany, Bundesliga, Saturday, 14th December, 14:30 (UK)

Borussia Monchengladbach’s early season form has given the fans very little to shout about. They have won five of their 13 matches so far and sit 11th in the table. Gerardo Seoane’s side are well clear of the relegation zone but there are several sides between them and the European places. 

Survival is the aim for Holstein Kiel but they certainly have their work cut out. They have five points and a goal difference of -20 heading into the weekend, meaning they are seven points from safety. The relegation playoff could offer them salvation but they are five points behind a Heidenheim side they beat earlier in the campaign. 

Monchengladbach have conceded 16.23 shots per game this season, a tally only beaten by Holstein Kiel. Their opponents have reached the 12-shot mark in six of their seven home games. Heidenheim, who are one place above Saturday’s opponents, managed 19 shots at this ground. 

Holstein Kiel have nothing to lose. They need to start putting points on the board if they are to have any hope of staying in the top flight so we are backing them to have over 11.5 shots here. They are averaging 11.67 attempts per away game. 

• Selection: Over 11.5 Shots For Holstein Kiel (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Cagliari vs Atalanta: Rossoblu Can Be Lethal

Italy, Serie A, Saturday, 14th December, 14:00 (UK)

Cagliari survived by the skin of their teeth last season, finishing a point above the relegation zone. It could be a similar story in this campaign. They have just one win in their last seven matches and come into this round of fixtures two points above the drop zone.

The Serie A title race is arguably the most exciting in Europe. Four points separate the top five but it is Atlanta who lead the way after 25 games. Gian Pierro Gasperini guided his team to a Europa League triumph last season but winning the Scudetto would eclipse that achievement. 

Rossoblu may be relegation battlers but they are getting plenty of shots away. They are averaging 13.73 shots per league game, more than the likes of Napoli and Juventus. At home, Cagliari’s shot count increases to an average of 16.25 per game. They have had 11 or more shots in all eight of their league matches in front of their own fans. 

Atalanta are conceding an average of 11.38 shots per away game this season. They also conceded 11 shots the last time they played at this ground. 

• Selection: Over 10.5 Shots For Cagliari (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Bologna vs Fiorentina: Extra Motivation For Vincenzo Italiano

Italy, Serie A, Saturday, 15th December, 14:00 (UK)

The early stages of life after Thiago Motta haven’t gone well for Bologna. Vincenzo Italiano has the team in 8th place but they are a whopping nine points behind 4th. He takes on his fromer club this weekend and will be keen to get a positive result.

Fiorentina hardly broke a sweat as they stormed to a 7-0 win in the Europa Conference League midweek. Raffaele Palladino is enjoying life in Florence and his team are currently on course to qualify for the Champions League. 

Bologna show plenty of attacking impetus and are more than willing to get the shots away. They are averaging 16 attempts per game in their Serie A matches in front of their own fans this season. They have had 14 shots or more in five of their six home games in the league thus far so over 12.5 appeals ahead of the Fiorentina clash. 

La Viola are conceding 10.43 shots per away game but five of their seven league games on the road have come against teams in the bottom half of the table. Fiorentina conceded 13 shots in their only away game against a team in the top six. 

• Selection: Over 12.5 Shots For Bologna (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Atletico Madrid vs Getafe: Azulones are La Liga’s Spoilers

Spain, La Liga, Sunday, 15th December, 13:00 (UK)

Atletico Madrid have been quietly going about their business but they look to be a real contender for the La Liga title with the winter break fast approaching. Diego Simeone’s side have won their last 10 competitive matches. They are now reaping the rewards of the lavish summer spending.

Getafe’s aim is to avoid relegation but it’s unlikely they will make a stride towards that goal this weekend. They have failed to win any of their last 25 competitive matches against Atletico Madrid, managing just five draws. 

Simeone’s side conceded very few shots on home turf with an average of 6.5 per game. They face another team that doesn’t allow the opposition many chances to shoot this weekend so we are backing unders.

Despite slugging it out near the bottom of the league, Getafe are adept at restricting the number of opportunities their opponents have. They are conceding the fewest shots in La Liga with an average of just 7.94 per game. Their matches have seen an average of 20.5 shots overall. 

• Selection: Under 22.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Villarreal vs Real Betis: Shots at a Premium as Betis Look to Sink the Yellow Submarine

Spain, La Liga, Sunday, 15th December, 17:30 (UK)

Villarreal are 5th in the league and they have their attack to thank. They have scored the second-most goals in the division but are still awaiting their first clean sheet. Their 2-0 defeat at Bilbao last weekend means they are now six points behind the Basque side who are in 4th.

Real Betis have struggled for consistency. They will be disappointed with their start and are currently 11th. However, they can close the gap to Villarreal to just two points by winning here. Manuel Pellegrini’s side finished 7th last season and will be aiming higher this time around. 

The Yellow Submarine’s matches were seeing plenty of shots but the numbers have dwindled in recent games. Their last five matches have seen an average of 24 shots so the line set by the bookmaker looks a little high here.

Pellegrini’s side’s away matches have seen an average of just 22.5 shots. There have been 27 shots or less in six of their eight away matches in La Liga so far this season. The last time these two teams squared off there were just 19 shots. 

• Selection: Under 27.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Premier League Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 08:12, December 15th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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