Scott Thornton’s Champions League Props: Four Best Bets

Scott Thornton brings you his four best bets ahead of this week’s Champions League quarter-final second legs. 

Tuesday night, Aston Villa aims to overcome the odds by beating PSG. Barcelona also take a commanding 4-0 lead to Borussia Dortmund. On Wednesday, Real Madrid need a miraculous turnaround against Arsenal if they are to remain in the competition. Elsewhere, Inter have a goal advantage as they host Bayern Munich. 

In this article: 

• Aston Villa vs PSG: Over 1.5 Fouls For Matty Cash
• Dortmund vs Barcelona: Over 0.5 Fouls For Inigo Martinez
• Inter vs Bayern Munich: Over 45.5 Passes For Konrad Laimer
• Real Madrid vs Arsenal: Under 5.5 Goal Kicks For Real Madrid

Acca odds: 

Aston Villa vs PSG: Cash Set For Another Struggle

Europe, Champions League, Tuesday, 15th April, 20:00 (UK)

Aston Villa have it all to do when they take on PSG. Unai Emery’s side were second best as they succumbed to a 3-1 defeat in the French capital but not all hope is not lost. Villa have already beaten Bayern in front of a sold-out Villa Park this season. Can they get an even more impressive win here?

PSG are currently the second favourites to win the Champions League. Being crowned the champions of Europe has been an obsession for the club since being taken over by Qatari Sports Investments. Their performances in the knockout stages thus far indicate that this could be their year. BETSiE certainly agrees, giving them a 40.4% chance of lifting the trophy.

Matty Cash had a torrid time of it in the first leg. He was directly up against Khvicha Kvaratskhelia in the 45 minutes he played. The tricky Georgian winger was able to keep him pinned down. Cash made a total of four fouls in that match so the odds for two appeal here, particularly with the ‘sub on, play on’ offer from bet365. Matty is making an average of 2.3 fouls per 90 minutes played in the Champions League this season.

PSG’s forward line all love to dribble with the ball. Kvaratskhelia, Doue and Dembele all rank in the top 8% for progressive carries compared with attacking midfielders and wingers across Europe’s top five leagues. This makes their opponents ideal candidates for tackles and fouls. 

• Selection: Over 1.5 Fouls For Matty Cash (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.37
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Dortmund vs Barcelona: BVB Forwards Force Fouls

Europe, Champions League, Tuesday, 15th April, 20:00 (UK)

It’s been a turbulent season in Dortmund. Niko Kovac has replaced Nuri Sahin as manager and they face a fight to qualify for Europe via their position in the Bundesliga. BVB made it to the final of the Champions League last season but with a 4-0 deficit to overcome here, they are unlikely to make it to the last four this time around.

Barcelona have the best attack in Europe. Their average of 3.27 goals per game is the most in this competition by some distance. Hansi Flick’s side will continue to be adventurous when they have the ball so it could be a long evening for Dortmund.

Inigo Martinez committed two fouls in the Blaugrana’s win over Leganes at the weekend and could be in the firing line once again. This bet has won in three of his last four matches in this competition. 

Guirassy will lead the line for Dortmund. He has netted 10 Champions League goals this season and is a handful. He is likely to be partnered with Maximilian Beier, who also likes to get involved with the opposition defenders. The pair were fouled four times in the 2-2 draw with Bayern on Saturday. They can certainly force a foul from Martinez here. 

• Selection: Over 0.5 Fouls For Inigo Martinez (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Inter vs Bayern Munich: More of the Same

Europe, Champions League, Wednesday, 16th April, 20:00 (UK)

This is the most finely poised quarter-final second leg. Inter have a one-goal lead to take to the San Siro. Simone Inzaghi has the tactical nous to enable his team to get over the line but they face a Bayern side that are capable of scoring a few. The Nerazzurri haven’t lost a home Champions League game since they were beaten 2-0 by Bayern back in 2022. 

Vincent Kompany has steered Bayern to the top of the Bundesliga. However, how his team perform in the latter stages of this competition is what counts. The Bavarians have lost three of their six European away games this season but need to be at their best on Wednesday night. 

Konrad Laimer was the standout player for Bayern in the first leg and we backed him to make passes. The line set by the bookmaker here is over 45.5, which looks very doable. The German made 57 passes in the reverse fixture and Bayern are set to have plenty of the ball once again. 

Inzaghi’s men don’t need to press too aggressively with one goal lead. They had 42% possession in the first leg but allowed Bayern to rack up a total of 654 passes. The Bavarians should hit a similar number here barring an early equaliser so Laimer passes looks a solid bet once again.

• Selection: Over 45.5 Passes For Konrad Laimer (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Real Madrid vs Arsenal: Conservative Arsenal Presents Opportunity

Europe, Champions League, Wednesday, 16th April, 20:00 (UK)

Real Madrid are the reigning champions of Europe but they are staring down the barrel of elimination here. Carlo Ancelotti’s men were put to the sword at the Emirates last weekend. They are now aiming to become just the fifth team to overturn a deficit of three goals or more heading into the second leg of a Champions League clash.

Arsenal have had more than their fair share of injury worries this season. They have fallen away in the Premier League title race as a result but there is still hope of European success. The Gunners have never got their hands on this famous trophy but eliminating Los Blancos would give them confidence. 

Los Blancos were poor in the first leg. Arsenal created far more chances but were still only able to force five goal kicks from Real Madrid. Therefore, under 5.5 for Ancelotti’s men appeals. The Gunners’ opponents in European away matches this season have had 8.4 goal kicks on average. However, this is their toughest match on the road to date and there is no need for them to commit bodies forward. 

Real have already faced English opposition in the knockout stages. They had just four goal kicks when they hosted Manchester City despite Pep Guardiola’s side needing to score to have any hope of winning the tie. 

• Selection: Under 5.5 Goal Kicks For Real Madrid (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Premier League Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 20:00, January 1st, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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