Sao Paulo vs Fluminense Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

The Brasileirão action continues this weekend and South American expert Nathan Joyes is back to provide his Sao Paulo vs Fluminense prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. 

Fernando Diniz’s side continue to underperform domestically with just five points from their opening five matches, which included losing a 2-0 lead vs Atletico Mineiro last time out. After sacking Thiago Carpini, the hosts have improved and head into this fixture the in-form side.

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In this article: 

• Sao Paulo vs Fluminense Tip 1: Sao Paulo to Win
• Sao Paulo vs Fluminense Tip 2: Over 9.5 Corners
• Sao Paulo vs Fluminense Tip 3: Luciano to Score Anytime

Sao Paulo vs Fluminense Prediction 1: Guest Misery

Brazil, Brasileirão, Monday, May 13th, 23:00 (UK)

Sao Paulo were the first team in Brazil to fire their manager within the first month of the season beginning. The bold decision to appoint Juventude’s Thiago Carpini unsurprisingly didn’t pay off, and perhaps the agreement to bring in Luis Zubdeldia should have been their first priority.

The Argentine manager won the Ecuadorian League and Sudamericana in 2023 and was the first coach to complete the double with an Ecuadorian side. Said manager is only 43 and does come into the fold and straight away has made a positive impact at Sao Paulo.

Unbeaten in five, winning four of those.His side have scored 11 goals across those matches; a more attacking approach was definitely required if Sao Paulo were to climb up the table.

With one club heading in the right direction, Fluminense are definitely not. The Copa Libertadores champions sit in 16th spot, picking up just five points from their five league matches to date. Their away form.Was the third worst last year and that hasn’t improved, losing both matches so far.

Fernando Diniz’s job is at risk, but with a lack of young, new talent at his disposal, quick football from opponents is catching them out. Andre, the heartbeat of his success last season, is also out injured.

Expect Sao Paulo’s new coach to keep the goals coming and add more misery onto their guests.

• Sao Paulo vs Fluminense Prediction 1: Sao Paulo to Win (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Sao Paulo vs Fluminense Prediction 2: Corner count to rack up

With Sao Paulo operating with wing-backs and strikers with an aerial presence, there’s no surprise to see their corner count fairly high under their new head coach.

Last time out against Vitoria, not only did Sao Paulo score three goals, but they also won eight of their own corners. In a much tougher match vs Palmeiras, the hosts on that occasion won six.

Fluminense were battered on their travels to Corinthians, but still managed to win eight of their own corners. Diniz’s free-flowing football has made them rather weak on the road, but quick play in the channels has still seen his side win several corners. 

It wasn’t the case with their trip to Bahia, but their pitch is one of the widest in the league – whereas Sao Paulo’s is one of the narrowest.

If Flu open the scoring or draw level, expect a reaction from the hosts. Under their previous manager, Sao Paulo lost 2-1 to Fortaleza but they did finish with 11 of their own corners.

It’s not in Fluminense’s nature to sit back, and with this match expected to be rather open in the middle of park, I’m anticipating plenty of corners over the over 9.5 line to come in.

• Sao Paulo vs Fluminense Prediction 2: Over 9.5 Corners
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Sao Paulo vs Fluminense Prediction 3: Striker the main threat

If Sao Paulo are to claim their first three points at home in the league this season, they’ll need Luciano to bring his A game. The 30-year-old remains Zubdeldia’s first choice to lead the line, who is also responsible from 12 yards.

The Brazilian scored a brace last time out in the league vs Vitoria on the road, adding to his league opener against Atletico GO last month.

Strong and tenacious, Luciano was Sao Paulo’s top goalscorer in 2023, and with his new Argentine manager setting up his team to attack the channels and create more opportunities, it’s expected he can improve on his 2023 tally.

Now settled under his new manager, Luciano can trouble Fluminense’s ageing defence which includes 40-year-old Felipe Melo as their first choice centre-back.

• Sao Paulo vs Fluminense Prediction 3: Luciano to Score Anytime
• Best Odds: 3.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Sao Paulo vs Fluminense Prediction odds via bet365 as at 15:00, May 7th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Sao Paulo vs Fluminense Team News and Possible Lineups: No Andre for the visitors

Both teams are missing important central midfielders who are set to be out for a while – which in theory, perhaps evens the match up. Sao Paulo’s Pablo Maia is likely to miss the next few months, while Andre who was linked with a big European move in January isn’t any closer to returning to the pitch.

Club captain Rafinha is also out for the hosts with no immediate due date back, while the visitors have key players out – but for different reasons.

John Kennedy has been suspended from the squad due to breaking club rules, and so German Cano is likely to continue leading the line for the foreseeable future.

Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Rafael; Franco, Arboleda, Diego Costa, Araujo, Alisson, Nestor, Bobadilla, Vinicius, Calleri, Luciano

Fluminense possible starting lineup:
  Fabio; Diogo Barbosa, Felipe Melo, Thiago Santos, Samuel Xavier, Martinelli, Lima, Ganso, Arias, Cano, Marquinhos

Match Stats: Evidence points towards home win

• Sao Paulo are unbeaten in their last five matches at the time of writing, conceding just two goals.
• Fluminense’s poor form on the road has continued in 2024, winning just one of their last eight in all competitions.
• Sao Paulo beat Fluminense 1-0 in this fixture last campaign.

Sao Paulo Fixtures: Mini run of home fixtures 

• Vs Barcelona (H)
• Vs Cruzeiro (H)
• Vs Aguia De Maraba (H)
• Vs Internacional (A)
• Vs Talleres (H)

Fluminense Fixtures: Four matches at the Maracana

• Vs Cerro Porteno (H)
• Vs Juventude (H)
• Vs Sampaio Correa (H)
• Vs Botafogo (A)
• Vs Alianza Lima (H)

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