Premier League Scrapbook MD7: Pumping Brakes and Corner Routines

Welcome to the curtain raiser – the first ever edition of the Premier League scrapbook on bettingexpert. This will be a space that will evolve over time, and one which will include selections, best bets, a P&L section, thoughts, tactical quirks, and general goings on ahead of a Premier League weekend schedule.

Sam Ingram is the man behind the ramblings you’ll find below. His fingerprints will be all over future editions of the Premier League scrapbook, too.

1. Arsenal vs Southampton: The perfect set piece match-up?
2. Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest: Undervalued visitors
3. This Week’s Most Eye-Catching OPTA Stats

Arsenal vs Southampton: Stick it on Gabriel’s Forehead

England, Premier League, Saturday, October 5th, 15:00 (UK)

Saints started brightly for ten minutes against Bournemouth on the weekend, but that was all we got from them. They didn’t really trouble the Cherries after that and looked especially vulnerable whenever there were multiple bodies in the defensive third following a transitional phase.

There was an evident gulf in quality between Bournemouth and Southampton. That was clear to see. Nine of Southampton’s starting XI were new signings – they’re going to need time to gel and time to bed in.

That’s time they’ve not really got, because now we’re straight into Arsenal at the Emirates. Regardless of bedding in and adapting, I’m not sure this current crop is of the level to compete and profit in the Premier League. I just don’t see it. On the Wondergoal Podcast last week, BJ Cunningham said he has Ipswich down as the worst team in the division this season. Well, this Saints outfit can’t be far off.

How many players would Kieran Mckenna pinch in Southampton’s starting eleven and slot straight into his? You can make a case for Aaron Ramsdale in net. I can see that. Tyler Dibling looks like a brilliant prospect at the stage he’s at in his career, but he’s not dislodging an Ipswich starter.

I can’t see anything else here other than an Arsenal victory. They’re 1.14 to win the game, so I’m not breaking the mould when saying they should win. How can you get them onside? Perhaps the -2.25 Asian Handicap is the answer? You can opt for Win to Nil at 1.80. That is something to consider.

An avenue for Arsenal to lean on

Instead, I’ve honed in on Southampton’s Set Piece data in the Premier League this season. Russel Martin’s men begrudgingly lead the way in set piece xGA with 3.82xGA from just six games.

This is an Arsenal side we know are very good at corners and getting the ball into the box from wide free kicks. They’ve scored three goals from set pieces in six games so far after leading the way in that metric last season, too. Bukayo Saka will put a delivery on a sixpence and it almost feels like there’s a magnetic pull towards Gabriel. He’s always in the vicinity and he’s always a threat, no matter what the opposition employs to try and stop him.

Therefore, Gabriel to score anytime at 6.50 looks appealing as the main play here, as does Gabriel First and Last goalscorer at 18/1 with a few pennies sprinkled on each outcome.

Despite Russel Martin’s non-negotiables from a tactical standpoint, Arsenal likely steals the majority of possession on the weekend. Do that, slice through Southampton’s attack with a regularity we saw in Bournemouth, and Arsenal corners won’t be far away. The Gunners have clocked up an average of 12.33 corners in their opening three fixtures (8, 3 & 17) at home.

Following their impressive win and shutout in the Champions League on Tuesday, I’m certain that set pieces will have been an area of utmost importance on the training ground as Southampton slips into the crosshairs.

• Arsenal vs Southampton: Gabriel Anytime Scorer (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 6.50
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 2.5/10

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The Football Betting Pod, Powered by bettingexpert: Excrement Smugglers & Win to Nil Retirements

We’re back, as host Daniel Jenkins is joined by bettingexpert Football Editor, Sam Ingram, and bettingexpert contributor, Daniele Fisichella, surveys the Premier League, Ligue 1, Championship, and Serie A landscape with their best selections from the continent.

There’s EIGHT selections in this week’s show. Get stuck in below…

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Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest: Shall we pump the brakes on the Chelsea loving?

England, Premier League, Saturday, October 6th, 14:00 (UK)

Chelsea scored four first-half goals on the weekend, but it could have been seven. Or Eight. They had one ruled out for offside, Palmer hit the post, and Madueke dragged one wide. It was so poor from Brighton.

The Brighton high line was straightforward to play against. You could tell that Chelsea practiced that all week. Cole Palmer said as much in his post-match press conference whilst gripping hold of the match ball.

When a Chelsea shirt received the ball with a bit of time to turn and pick a pass in their own half, that triggered Chelsea’s front line to sprint beyond the defensive line and await a through ball or a dink over the top. That, and a helping of unforced errors from Brighton, meant it was plain sailing at Stamford Bridge in the opening stages.

The week before, against West Ham, Chelsea carved through them like a knife through butter (0-3) on more than three occasions. They were tremendous, again. Yet, the question must be asked: Did West Ham’s passive defending and press make Chelsea look like prime Brazil, or was it Chelsea who made West Ham’s defending look like something out of the Non-League circuit?

Speaking of Palmer, what a player. The question marks around him this season of now being the leading man and having the full attention of opponents – how will he cope with that? Will we see the same level of output? If you watched that game, the answer you’d give is an emphatic yes for both questions.

Chelsea are decent. They’re better than most people perceived they would be during the summer. You’d have looked at the goings on in pre-season, which was chaotic – lots of moving parts – and you’d have assumed that Enzo Maresca, no Premier League or top-flight experience, had no chance to get this Chelsea side firing.

Shall we get Forest on side?

I’m not disputing that Chelsea are in a really good spot. But they’re now 1.46 to beat Forest at home. You could have got Liverpool at 1.85 at Anfield after the international break vs Chelsea up until yesterday. The bookies are fully behind this Blues side at present. I don’t know if I’m there yet from a betting perspective, so that opens up a little value on the weekend.

The Nottingham Forest +1.25AH at 1.87 stood out instantly when making my way through this card. It’s a selection that has won for Forest in every Premier League game this season. Six in Six. Forest have been more than competitive in every game, keeping the scoreline tight on each occasion:

Forest 1-1 Bournemouth

Southampton 0-1 Forest

Forest 1-1 Wolves

Liverpool 0-1 Forest… The Standout.

Brighton 2-2 Forest

Forest 0-1 Fulham

Morgan Gibbs-White is back from suspension for the weekend – he missed the Fulham game. Gibbs-White has missed eight games for Forest since promotion to the Premier League: Forest have lost six of those eight fixtures. He’s back, that’s a big plus, and they’ll need him.

For me, Forest are undervalued here, and that’s a consequence of Chelsea being overvalued following two fixtures versus suspect defences. The away side doesn’t fit into that category this season. No side has faced fewer shots on target in the Premier League this season than Nottingham Forest (18, level with Man City). Indeed, their average of three shots on target faced per game is their lowest on record in a single league campaign (since 2013-14).

Forest won’t arrive and be as passive as West Ham. They won’t turn up and pitch their defenders on the halfway line. It should look and feel very different – let’s hope Forest can keep it more than competitive once again.

• Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest: Nottingham Forest -1.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.88
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

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This Week’s Most Eye-Catching OPTA Stats: Lopetegui to channel his inner Bryan Robson?

Crystal Palace vs Liverpool

• Crystal Palace have conceded more Premier League goals against Liverpool than they have against any other opponent both overall (69) and at home (38). Indeed, the Reds are responsible for the Eagles’ two biggest home defeats in the competition’s history (6-1 in August 1994, 7-0 in December 2020).

Arsenal vs Southampton

• Southampton have underperformed their xG by almost five goals this season (7.7xG, 3 goals), with only Manchester United having a poorer record in the Premier League so far (10.6xG, 5 goals). Saints also have the lowest shot conversion rate in the competition this term (4.4%).

Brentford vs Wolves

• Brentford have opened the scoring in the first minute in each of their last three Premier League games, but have failed to go on to win any of them, or even score again in the match (D1 L2). The Bees are the first side to ever do this in three straight games – indeed, no team in Premier League history have ever scored four first minute goals in a single campaign.

Leicester vs Bournemouth

• Only Erling Haaland (31) has had more shots than Antoine Semenyo (28) in the Premier League this season, with Semenyo the only Bournemouth player to score more than once so far (3). The Ghanaian has also completed the most dribbles (8) and had the most touches in the opposition box (34) of any Cherries player in the competition this term.

Manchester City vs Fulham

• Manchester City have won each of their last 16 meetings with Fulham in all competitions, the longest winning run one English league side has had against another in history.

West Ham vs Ipswich

• West Ham manager Julen Lopetegui could be the 12th manager to lose his first four home Premier League matches in charge at a club. Of those previous 11, the only one who did so in a season that didn’t then see that club relegated was Bryan Robson at West Brom in 2004-05.

Everton vs Newcastle

• Newcastle’s Bruno Guimarães has won the most fouls in the Premier League this season (24) and since his first start in March 2022 he has won 42 more fouls than anyone else (249). Since 2003-04, among players to play 5,000 Premier League minutes, the only players to win more fouls per 90 minutes than Guimarães (3) are Jack Grealish (3.8) and Wilfried Zaha (3.1).

Aston Villa vs Manchester United

• Manchester United have lost eight Premier League matches by a margin of three or more goals under Erik ten Hag. Since the start of 2022-23, the only current Premier League managers to suffer more 3+ goal defeats are Gary O’Neil and Sean Dyche (9 each).

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest

• Since his debut for Chelsea in September last season (which was a home defeat to Nottingham Forest), Cole Palmer has been involved in more Premier League goals than any other player (43 – 28 goals, 15 assists). He’s averaging a goal or assist every 73 minutes in that time, the best rate of any Chelsea player in Premier League history (min. 500 minutes).

Brighton vs Tottenham

• Only Manchester City (115) have had more shots in the Premier League than Tottenham Hotspur (110), while Spurs have had the most shots on target of any side (45). It’s the most shots on target Spurs have had in their opening six games of a season on record since 2003-04.

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Premier League Scrapbook Record

Selection	Fixture	Odds	Bookmaker	Stake	Returns
Gabriel Magalhaes AGS	Arsenal vs Southampton	6.50	bet365	0.25u	0.00
Nottingham Forest -1.25AH	Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest	1.88	bet365	1.00u	0.00

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