Football | Tuesday, August 2, 2022 4:32 PM (Revised at: Friday, August 5, 2022 1:53 PM)

Premier League Betting Value Report Cards 2022/23: The Best Bets & Value Teams After +55 Unit Profit Last Season

REUTERS / Alamy Stock Photo

bettingexpert Chief Editor

With the Premier League kick-off a few days away, it’s time to dust off my red pen for another edition of Value Report Cards. In this article, I’ll look through all 20 Premier League clubs and give my thoughts on their chances this season. After that, I’ll provide an outright bet that provides value for all 20 clubs.

How does it Work?

If you know, you know. The Betting Value Report Cards is a chance for me to grade every team in a competition based on how successful they’ll be in the upcoming season. This is the second edition of the Premier League Value Report Cards and the sixth overall on bettingexpert News.

The method remains the same. I trawl through the outright odds, bookmaker expectations and expert & fan analysis to see the expectation for each team. I then compare that with my own research, data and forecasts and look for gaps.

Past Successes

The Value Report Cards have been hugely successful since launching in time for Euro 2020 last year. That edition selected eventual winners Italy as the side with the highest potential value.

The concept continued for the 2021/22 Premier League. That article selected Arsenal and Liverpool as the sides with the highest potential value. Special spots were reserved for high-flyers Wolves and Brighton. Everton were the lowest-value team and suffered a woeful season. 15/20 best bets were winners. In all, the 2021/22 Premier League Value Report Cards brought home +55 units of profit.

The 2021/2022 Champions League Value Report Cards did even better in terms of winnings. 10/16 best bets were winners, bringing in +71.89 units of profit. The highlight was a 13.00 punt on Villarreal reaching the semi-finals that brought in +60 units.

Let’s hope for a similar outcome from this edition.

It’s All About Value…

There is value in every team – whether that’s found by backing them or betting against them. The basic guideline for the Report Cards is this: A and B grades should be backed, C and D grades are roughly where they should be, and I’d encourage betting against the E and F.

Using that information, I’ve provided a best bet and stakes for each team. At the end of the season, we’ll return and see whether the campaign went as expected.

Without further ado, here are the Premier League Betting Value Report Cards 2022/23

Jump to:

The A Grades

Tottenham: A+

Tottenham Hotspur are top of the class this year.

Things are looking up for Antonio Conte’s men. The Italian is one of the most consistently successful managers in the world right now, defying expectations wherever he goes. This appeared to be his most difficult job to date but Conte has been a success. Eight wins in 11 matches at the end of last season secured Champions League qualification. They were 8th at the start of March but the January reinforcements pushed Spurs over the edge.

Conte has now had a full preseason with this expanding group of players. Richarlison, Djed Spence, Ivan Perisic, Yves Bissouma and Clement Lenglet have filled out the squad. There are rotation options in every position. The Brazilian Richarlison provides cover for both Harry Kane and Son Heung-min up front.

Spurs have two usable players for every outfield position in the team. It’s the strongest squad they’ve had in some time so I don’t expect those extra European matches to hurt their chances in the league.

REUTERS / Alamy Stock Photo

They’ll also benefit from the transition process of sides around them. Top 4 should be the minimum expected of Spurs this season but I can see them pushing even higher. Top 2 at 3.75 was a tempting option but my best bet is a safer option.

Antonio Conte doesn’t stick around for long. He hasn’t spent more than two years with a team since leaving Juventus in 2014. This probably isn’t a long-term project for him but that doesn’t matter. Spurs’ best attacking players are in their prime right now. Conte’s Spurs will burn fast and bright and I expect an excellent season from them.

Selection: Top of Premier League W/O Man City and Liverpool (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.75
Provider: 10Bet
Stakes: 10/10

Tottenham Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	15.00	6.3%
TOP 2 FINISH	5.50	17.1%
TOP 4 FINISH	1.67	58.1%
TOP 6 FINISH	1.22	81.3%
TOP HALF FINISH	1.04	94.5%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	17.00	5.8%
RELEGATION	1001.00	0.1%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	5001.00	0.0%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Arsenal: A

Mikel Arteta’s parents will be pleased with the consistency of these grades. An A+ last year and an A grade this campaign for his Gunners team. Arsenal carried the value last season and they still do heading into this campaign.

Last season, they earned their grade thanks to a disconnect between the public perception and the ability of the team. The lack of European football also helped their cause. Things ultimately ended in disappointment as they fell at the final hurdle in their quest for the top 4.

It’s a different story this campaign. Arsenal will play in Europe but summer acquisitions mean that they’ll be much better suited to the Thursday/Sunday schedule the Europa League provides. The bookies still expect them to finish 5th or 6th which I think is harsh.

Arsenal have already addressed the serious weaknesses in their squad. Fabio Vieira and Oleksandr Zinchenko provide cover for several areas of the pitch. Gabriel Jesus is the perfect centre forward for this team and should be a wonderful signing. The latter two players should bring that winning mentality after their time with Manchester City.

Last year, I backed the Gunners to reach the top 6 at 2.38. They’re down to 1.57 for such a finish this campaign. I’m going to be a little more optimistic and back them to return to the Champions League.

There’s a gap in the top 4 for the Gunners to grab. Chelsea, Manchester City and Liverpool are all coming into transition periods with major changes to their starting lineups. They’ve all created gaps in their winnings team and filled them. Arsenal and Tottenham have addressed weaknesses that were already there. They carry plenty of value heading into the new season.

Selection: Arsenal to Finish Top 4 (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.80
Provider: Paddy Power
Stakes: 9/10

Arsenal Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	41.00	2.3%
TOP 2 FINISH	15.00	6.3%
TOP 4 FINISH	2.80	34.6%
TOP 6 FINISH	1.57	63.2%
TOP HALF FINISH	1.10	89.4%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	10.00	9.8%
RELEGATION	501.00	0.2%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	4501.00	0.0%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Wolves: A-

Why is everyone so cold on Wolves? This is a team stacked full of quality that finished 10th last season and has actually improved over the summer window. Nathan Collins will sure up the backline and by the looks of it, Adama Traore will wear orange once again next season.

The expectation is for a lower midtable finish from Bruno Lage’s side. They’re as low as 1.36 to finish in the bottom half and 3.50 to land a top 10 spot which is baffling me.

West Ham, Leicester, Newcastle, Aston Villa and Brighton will provide competition for those four spots between 7th and 10th. I also expect Crystal Palace to be in the mix. It’s a lot of competition but I’d argue that Wolves have one of, if not the strongest squad of those clubs.

Wolves had the best defensive record outside of the top 4 last campaign. Their team is a lot better than the odds suggest which provides plenty of value. 5.50 for the Top Midlands Club at bet365 was tempting but I’m looking at the top half finish odds here.

Selection: Wolves to Finish Top Half (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 3.50
Provider: SkyBet
Stakes: 8/10

Wolves Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	501.00	0.2%
TOP 2 FINISH	301.00	0.3%
TOP 4 FINISH	51.00	1.9%
TOP 6 FINISH	19.00	5.2%
TOP HALF FINISH	3.50	28.1%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	1.36	72.1%
RELEGATION	6.50	14.9%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	23.00	4.0%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

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The B Grades

Crystal Palace: B+

Here’s another team I like in the battle for the top half.

We can expect many of the same names last season to be in the mix this campaign. Crystal Palace finished 12th last season, three points behind Wolves and Brighton in 10th and 9th. They were four behind Leicester in 8th. Have Leicester and Brighton improved enough over the summer to suggest they will better last season’s totals? I’d say no.

Meanwhile, Crystal Palace should be just as, if not stronger than last season. Conor Gallagher will undoubtedly be a big miss for them after his return to Chelsea. Still, the signing of Cheick Doucoure is a coup and could be a major player for the Eagles.

This is a young team. Palace’s three most-used players last season were all under 22. Talented attackers Odsonne Edouard, Michael Olise, Eberechi Eze as well as January recruit Jean-Philippe Mateta will be older, wiser and more experienced. There is a lot more for these players to give in what is a settled team. The centre-back pairing of Marc Guehi and Joachim Andersen is arguably the strongest outside of the big six.

The bookies identified them as relegation candidates last season but Palace massively outperformed expectations. This year, Palace are forecasted to finish around 16th which again, I expect them to outperform. A top-half finish is tempting at those odds.

Selection: Crystal Palace to Finish Top Half (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 3.50
Provider: Unibet
Stakes: 6/10

Crystal Palace Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	501.00	0.2%
TOP 2 FINISH	376.00	0.2%
TOP 4 FINISH	51.00	1.9%
TOP 6 FINISH	15.00	6.6%
TOP HALF FINISH	3.50	28.1%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	1.40	70.1%
RELEGATION	8.00	12.1%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	26.00	3.5%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Nottingham Forest: B

There’s usually one newly-promoted team that outperforms expectations. Brentford took that title last season and this year, it will be Nottingham Forest. Steve Cooper is a fine manager who has transformed this team in a short space of time. Their success last campaign was built on a solid defence. They kept 17 clean sheets in the 42 league matches since Cooper took charge.

Brennan Johnson is a fine attacking talent who could have a breakout role for Forest. But this side has only improved in the transfer window, bringing in some big-name signings. Neco Williams and Omar Richards will add quality to the wing-back areas. Dean Henderson is a solid pick between the sticks but the standout name is Jesse Lingard.

It’s a signing that has raised some negative attention from neutrals. The former Manchester United man is on a lot of money but this deal is a calculated risk that should pay off. Lingard proved his quality in that remarkable loan stint at West Ham. He can slot straight into the starting lineup and will benefit from being the focal point of their attacks. I expect a lower midtable finish for Forest and for them to outperform Fulham and Bournemouth.

Selection: Forest to be the Top Promoted Team (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.50
Provider: William Hill
Stakes: 8/10

Nottingham Forest Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	1001.00	0.1%
TOP 2 FINISH	801.00	0.1%
TOP 4 FINISH	201.00	0.5%
TOP 6 FINISH	51.00	1.9%
TOP HALF FINISH	9.00	10.9%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	1.10	89.2%
RELEGATION	2.30	42.1%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	6.00	15.3%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

West Ham: B

I underestimated West Ham last season and I won’t do it again. David Moyes has built a solid team stacked with quality. It looks like they’ll keep hold of key players Declan Rice and Jarrod Bowen so I expect more of the same from them this season. The arrival of Gianluca Scamacca is a coup and gives them another option up front. Midfielder Flynn Downes arrives from Swansea City to provide depth in midfield.

It’s difficult to find a value bet here. A top-half finish is low at 1.67 so I’m looking at alternatives. They’re 2.00 in a season match bet vs Newcastle which is tempting. 1.72 in a season match bet vs Leicester is even better.

Selection: West Ham in Season Match Bet vs Leicester (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 1.72
Provider: bet365
Stakes: 10/10

West Ham Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	251.00	6.3%
TOP 2 FINISH	101.00	17.1%
TOP 4 FINISH	17.00	58.1%
TOP 6 FINISH	5.00	81.3%
TOP HALF FINISH	1.62	94.5%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	2.25	5.8%
RELEGATION	26.00	0.1%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	151.00	0.0%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Manchester United: B-

For large parts of this summer, I had Manchester United down as the A+ value for this season. Here we have a massively underperforming squad under a new manager who has addressed some key weaknesses in the starting lineup.

They just haven’t done enough.

The team is still missing a top-class central midfielder and a long-term option up front. Goals will be an issue for Ten Hag’s side – with or without Cristiano Ronaldo leading the line. They bagged 57 in the Premier League last season. Clubs typically need around 70 to get into the top 4 which is likely United’s mission for the new campaign.

I don’t think they’ll have quite that many this campaign so I’d avoid the over 65 or over 70 goal line that many bookies are offering. They finished on their record lowest points total of 58 last season. The bookies have their points line at around 66 which seems just about spot on. Low stakes here.

Selection: Between 65 and 67 Points (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 6.00
Provider: bet365
Stakes: 2/10

Manchester United Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	41.00	2.3%
TOP 2 FINISH	10.00	9.4%
TOP 4 FINISH	2.88	33.7%
TOP 6 FINISH	1.50	66.1%
TOP HALF FINISH	1.08	91.0%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	10.00	9.8%
RELEGATION	1001.00	0.1%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	4501.00	0.0%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

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The C Grades

Liverpool: C

Liverpool had an A grade last season but it’s difficult to offer the same endorsement this time. It will be a time of transition for the Reds with plenty of changes in attack. Sadio Mane has departed for Bayern Munich, a player who has played over 250 for Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool. Fringe stars Divock Origi and Takumi Minamino have also departed.

The Reds have put their eggs in the Darwin Nunez basket. The Uruguayan has arrived for the second-highest transfer fee Liverpool have ever paid. It’s a show of faith but a major gamble.

Nunez is a wildly different player from Liverpool’s other forward options. He impressed in the Community Shield against Manchester but Pep Guardiola’s side were poor on the day. It will take some time for Nunez to settle and for Liverpool to adapt to playing with him.

There are also some concerns with the depth of the Reds’ squad. Midfield could be a problem with an injury or two. Especially so considering all three of Naby Keita, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and James Milner are entering the final year of their respective contracts.

Sportimage / Alamy Stock Photo

The teams below them have improved. Jurgen Klopp is aware of that and gave some interesting quotes a few weeks ago.

“But you just have to look around at what other teams are doing, they didn’t get weaker and we didn’t win the games we won six or 7-0, we won them 1-0, 2-1 or whatever was necessary.”

There is a lot of truth in that. The Reds only won four of their 10 matches against the rest of the big six. All of them were against Arsenal and Manchester United. Tottenham and the Gunners have kicked on over the summer and will push the Reds. I’m hedging my bets a little here. I think Liverpool will have a good season if they avoid injuries but that expected points total looks generous.

Selection: Under 84 Points (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.10
Provider: bet365
Stakes: 6/10

Liverpool Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	3.60	26.3%
TOP 2 FINISH	1.44	65.3%
TOP 4 FINISH	1.12	86.6%
TOP 6 FINISH	1.03	96.3%
TOP HALF FINISH	1.00	98.3%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	101.00	1.0%
RELEGATION	5001.00	0.0%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	5001.00	0.0%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Brentford: C

Brentford were the surprise package last year and now they’re in for that oft-quoted difficult second season. The bookies are expecting them to barely stay up with Leeds and the newly-promoted sides slated to finish below them.

It feels a little harsh. Brentford have recruited well over the summer window. They’ve sured up a defence that conceded fewer goals than Manchester United last season. Christian Eriksen’s departure is a blow but one of this club’s strengths is its ability to thrive after losing key players.

Of course, it will be impossible to replace Eriksen with a player of similar calibre. Mathias Jensen will hope to contribute more. Meanwhile, the arrival of Keane Lewis-Porter provides another, very different option in attack.

Clubs around them have lost key players and there are plenty of worse teams in the division than the Bees. I imagine things will be a little more difficult this season than last but I’m expecting them to have a decent campaign.

Selection: Over 39 Points (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 1.72
Provider: bet365
Stakes: 8/10

Brentford Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	1001.00	0.1%
TOP 2 FINISH	501.00	0.2%
TOP 4 FINISH	101.00	1.0%
TOP 6 FINISH	29.00	3.4%
TOP HALF FINISH	6.00	16.4%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	1.17	83.9%
RELEGATION	3.75	25.8%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	11.00	8.4%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Brighton: C-

Brighton were a value team last season and they proved as much, bringing home a 2.75 bet for a top-half finish. They’re at around 2.20 to repeat the feat this season. It feels a little short considering the improvement of teams like Newcastle and Crystal Palace.

The summer has arguably been a net loss for the Seagulls. They’ve lost Yves Bissouma to Tottenham and it looks as if Marc Cucurella will head for the exit door too. The acquisitions they have made have been further up the pitch.

Young forward Julio Enciso has joined but I’m keen to watch Deniz Undav closely. The German forward signed for Brighton on loan before returning to former club Union SG on loan. He’s an interesting option and could be the missing piece in their attack.

Bissouma and Cucurella haven’t been adequately replaced which may be an issue. Failing that, the top-half finish odds look pretty reasonable.

Selection: Brighton to Finish Top Half (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.20
Provider: SkyBet
Stakes: 4/10

Brighton Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	301.00	0.3%
TOP 2 FINISH	251.00	0.4%
TOP 4 FINISH	29.00	3.3%
TOP 6 FINISH	10.00	9.9%
TOP HALF FINISH	2.20	44.7%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	1.73	56.7%
RELEGATION	10.00	9.7%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	41.00	2.2%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

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The D Grades

Newcastle: D+

Newcastle 2022/23 doesn’t quite feel like Manchester City 2009/10. It’s not as if they’ve spent big on 6/7 first team players to reconstruct the squad. To date, Newcastle have signed three first-team players, one of whom was already on loan at the club.

Sven Botman is a fine acquisition. As is Nick Pope who, together with the January arrival of Bruno Guimaraes, creates a spine of real quality. They’re still missing a few. Goals are an issue. Things may change if the proposed move for Leicester’s James Maddison works out but he’s hardly a perfect fit for this team.

The bookies expect a 7th-place finish for this Newcastle side that won 12 of their 18 final matches last season. I still don’t see Newcastle as the 7th-best side in England. West Ham are above them and there isn’t much between the Magpies and teams like Aston Villa, Brighton, Palace and Wolves. A bottom-half finish is temptingly long with low stakes.

Selection: Newcastle to Finish Bottom Half (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 3.40
Provider: Betfred
Stakes: 2/10

Newcastle United Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	151.00	0.6%
TOP 2 FINISH	51.00	1.8%
TOP 4 FINISH	10.00	9.7%
TOP 6 FINISH	3.75	26.5%
TOP HALF FINISH	1.45	67.8%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	3.30	29.7%
RELEGATION	34.00	2.9%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	201.00	0.5%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Manchester City: D

I had Manchester City in the As for value last season. Things will be different this time around. Pep Guardiola’s men should still lift the Premier League title. They have the strongest starting lineup and a squad deep enough to compete on multiple fronts. I just don’t think it will be as straightforward for them as it was last season.

It’s a period of transition for Pep Guardiola’s side. Their attacking lineup and style of play have been completely overhauled heading into the new campaign. Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus have departed after playing major roles in City’s success. The pair contributed an average of 25.8 goals per season between them in the last five league campaigns.

Erling Haaland will aim to single-handedly match that figure moving forward. But their departure means a major change in what City expect from their front three. They’ve moved away from goalscoring wingers completely. Jack Grealish and Phil Foden will surely play an even bigger role in the Premier League. That will take some time to get used to.

That was evident in the Community Shield. Although a small sample, Liverpool seemed to cope much better with their changed tactics and frontline than City. Pep Guardiola’s men struggled to get Haaland involved in the match. That will surely change as the season goes on but there will be teething problems. Perhaps we shouldn’t expect a 30-win season.

It’s difficult to find value here. 1.70 for City to win the league isn’t worth the price. I don’t think we’ll see them run away with the trophy as they did from early December last season. I can see them struggling and still adapting in the first few months. That’s why the over/under points total is off.

Selection: Under 88 Points (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.20
Provider: bet365
Stakes: 7/10

Manchester City Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	1.75	54.1%
TOP 2 FINISH	1.18	79.7%
TOP 4 FINISH	1.03	94.1%
TOP 6 FINISH	1.01	98.2%
TOP HALF FINISH	1.00	98.3%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	101.00	1.0%
RELEGATION	5001.00	0.0%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	5001.00	0.0%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Aston Villa: D

As ever, it’s difficult to predict Aston Villa. There can be no doubting their business in the summer transfer window. Villa have recruited well. Diego Carlos was outstanding in La Liga last season and Boubacar Kamara is an exciting prospect in midfield. Philippe Coutinho’s arrival on a permanent deal is the icing on the cake.

But we said the same thing last season. Villa lost Jack Grealish but recruited Emi Buendia, Danny Ings and Leon Bailey to replace him. All three players struggled in their first season at Villa Park but the potential is there.

They will aim to compete for 7th place with the rest of the midtable clubs. Villa have some players who would get into almost any squad in the Premier League and others who wouldn’t be anywhere close. It’s a real mish-mash of talent and this inconsistency will hurt them throughout the season – just as it did last campaign. It’s why they were capable of taking four points off Manchester United but still lose 19 matches.

I’m not convinced that they’ll finish in the top half but the teams finishing 7th-12th will have a higher points total than last season. They finished on 45 last season so over 51 is a good option at 2.40 this term.

They’ll likely finish between 8th and 12th so the top/bottom half markets are the best way to go. Bottom half carries slightly more value so I’m backing that with low stakes. As I said, Villa are always difficult to predict.

Selection: Villa Finish Bottom Half (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.10
Provider: SkyBet
Stakes: 3/10

Aston Villa Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	301.00	0.3%
TOP 2 FINISH	151.00	0.6%
TOP 4 FINISH	21.00	4.6%
TOP 6 FINISH	6.50	15.3%
TOP HALF FINISH	1.83	53.7%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	2.10	46.7%
RELEGATION	17.00	5.7%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	67.00	1.4%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Everton: D-

They were the F-rated team last season so it’s a slight improvement this time around. They aren’t a strong side and they’ve only weakened over the summer. The only reason Everton aren’t in the Es and Fs is that the perception has caught up with reality. Bookmakers and pundits have seen this Toffees side for what it is.

Relegation is a real possibility for them. The Toffees were four points away from heading down last season. They would have but for a run of four wins and two draws in their final nine matches. Brazilian forward Richarlison contributed to eight of Everton’s 13 goals in that run and has since departed for Tottenham.

There are no signs of an immediate replacement but the acquisitions of James Tarkowski and Dwight McNeil will help. The proposed move for Idrissa Gueye will add another body but he doesn’t seem to add much to a midfield that already features Allan and Abdoulaye Doucoure. They’re missing creativity and goals from forward areas. A bottom-half finish is nailed on.

Selection: Everton to Finish Bottom Half (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 1.33
Provider: BetVictor
Stakes: 10/10

Everton Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	501.00	0.2%
TOP 2 FINISH	501.00	0.2%
TOP 4 FINISH	51.00	1.9%
TOP 6 FINISH	21.00	4.7%
TOP HALF FINISH	3.75	26.2%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	1.33	73.8%
RELEGATION	4.50	21.5%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	21.00	4.4%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Southampton: D-

There is little to no value in backing Southampton to do anything. The Saints have made some interesting acquisitions, focusing on young players with the potential to improve. I’m eager to see Romeo Lavia, Sekou Mara and Armel Bella-Kotchap in action next season. I just don’t think it can help them.

Southampton were five points clear of the relegation zone last season. They’ve lost Armando Broja who has returned to Chelsea which will hurt them. The Saints have been flirting with relegation for several years. That can’t go on forever.

The bookies have Nottingham Forest, Leeds and Brentford are shorter odds than Southampton to go down. All three sides are better than the Saints. That’s why I’m backing them to return to the 2nd tier for the first time in a decade at low stakes.

Selection: Southampton to get Relegated (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 4.00
Provider: William Hill
Stakes: 4/10

Southampton Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	751.00	0.1%
TOP 2 FINISH	501.00	0.2%
TOP 4 FINISH	101.00	1.0%
TOP 6 FINISH	41.00	2.4%
TOP HALF FINISH	6.50	15.1%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	1.17	83.9%
RELEGATION	4.00	24.2%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	13.00	7.1%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

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The E Grades

Fulham: E

If history is anything to go off, gravity will be the dominant force affecting this yo-yo Fulham side. It’s three promotions in five years for the Cottagers. Will it be three relegations in the same time frame?

Marco Silva’s side have one thing working in their favour. Fulham stormed to the Championship title last season finishing with 90 points. They needed the playoffs to go up in 2018 and 2020.

It’s the fifth bite of the cherry for Aleksandar Mitrovic in the Premier League. Despite the perception, some previous attempts have been successful. He bagged 11 in 37 appearances for the Cottagers back in 2018/19. That’s not bad for a forward in a relegated side. If he scores even a third of the 43 goals he bagged last season in the Championship, that will be some achievement.

It’s doubtful. There are so many better sides in the Premier League right now and it’s difficult to see anything other than another falling yo-yo year for Fulham. Just as we did for Norwich last season.

Selection: Fulham to get Relegated (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.50
Provider: SkyBet
Stakes: 8/10

Fulham Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	1001.00	0.1%
TOP 2 FINISH	501.00	0.2%
TOP 4 FINISH	201.00	0.5%
TOP 6 FINISH	51.00	1.9%
TOP HALF FINISH	9.00	10.9%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	1.10	89.2%
RELEGATION	2.50	38.8%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	7.50	12.2%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Bournemouth: E

They’re the weakest squad in the Premier League and it will be a long season for Bournemouth. The Cherries are back after two seasons in the second tier. Scott Parker’s side notched up 88 points to finish 2nd in the Championship last campaign.

Much of that team will line up when they take on Aston Villa on the opening day. We know what to expect from them and looking at the rest of the league, it won’t be enough. The Cherries are as low as 1.40 to go down so we have to look elsewhere for the value. 3.00 for them to finish just two places higher than last season is the one.

Selection: Bournemouth to Finish Bottom (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 3.00
Provider: 888Sport
Stakes: 7/10

Bournemouth Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	2001.00	0.0%
TOP 2 FINISH	1001.00	0.1%
TOP 4 FINISH	251.00	0.4%
TOP 6 FINISH	201.00	0.5%
TOP HALF FINISH	17.00	5.8%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	1.03	95.3%
RELEGATION	1.54	62.9%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	3.00	30.6%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Chelsea: E

Last season, Manchester United were the big 6 side I looked at as being massively overpriced. It’s Chelsa’s turn this campaign. The Blues have had to make plenty of changes in the transfer window and still have a lot to do. They’ll need at least one more striker and two starting defenders.

That’s without even looking at a midfield that will be destroyed when the contracts of N’Golo Kante and Jorginho expire next season. Thiago Silva, Cesar Azpilicueta and Marcos Alonso are also on that list.

It’s a time of major change at Stamford Bridge. The Roman Abramovich era is over. While the new ownership has made a good impression within the game, the scale of the job is massive for Todd Boehly and co.

The departure of Antonio Rudiger was a major blow. Kalidou Koulibaly is a solid replacement but it’s still going to take some time for Chelsea to get things right defensively. This is all at a time when the teams just below them – Arsenal and Tottenham – have kicked on.

Raheem Sterling is a solid signing but Chelsea need a lot more and they’re running out of time. They’re rebuilding the squad while rebuilding the structure of the club simultaneously. It’s a big ask to maintain the level of consistency they’ve shown in recent years. Something has to give and I’d be surprised if Thomas Tuchel lasts the full season.

Selection: Chelsea to Miss Out on Top 4 (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.10
Provider: SkyBet
Stakes: 8/10

Chelsea Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	17.00	5.6%
TOP 2 FINISH	6.00	15.7%
TOP 4 FINISH	1.76	55.1%
TOP 6 FINISH	1.25	79.4%
TOP HALF FINISH	1.05	93.6%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	17.00	5.8%
RELEGATION	2501.00	0.0%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	5001.00	0.0%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Leeds: E-

The teams that finish 17th one season will often go down the season after. Burnley found that out last campaign and I wouldn’t be surprised if Leeds United suffer the same fate this time around.

All of the signs are there. The identity and style of play instilled by Marcelo Bielsa is being eaten away. They’ve lost key players in Kalvin Phillips and Raphinha. The latter was the main reason they beat the drop last campaign with 11 goals and three assists for a struggling side.

They’ve brought in a host of players to replace them. Tyler Adams and Marc Roca will add extra quality in the centre of midfield but there are doubts further forward. Luis Sinisterra is a big-money gamble but he’ll need to get things right from day one in order to fill Raphinha’s boots. They offer excellent value in the relegation battle.

Selection: Leeds to get Relegated (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 3.30
Provider: Paddy Power
Stakes: 6/10

Leeds Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	751.00	0.1%
TOP 2 FINISH	501.00	0.2%
TOP 4 FINISH	101.00	1.0%
TOP 6 FINISH	34.00	2.9%
TOP HALF FINISH	6.50	15.1%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	1.14	86.1%
RELEGATION	3.30	29.4%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	11.00	8.4%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

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The F Grades

Leicester: F

And finally…

Leicester City prop up the 2022/23 Premier League Value Report Cards with their F grade. The bookmakers expect another upper midtable finish for the Foxes but I disagree. I can see a long and difficult season for Leicester as they gear up for a major transition.

At the start of the summer, Brendan Rodgers promised a major rebuild of the Leicester squad. Here they are, a few days from the Premier League kickoff without a single major signing. The Foxes are a player down following Ademola Lookman’s return to Germany which. They will be without an attacker who scored six goals and made 26 Premier League appearances for them last season.

We still don’t know what shape this squad will be in at the end of the window. Kasper Schmeichel looks set to leave the club. Youri Tielemans, James Maddison and Wesley Fofana could all make moves away from the King Power.

It would be difficult to replace any one of them with only a few weeks left in the transfer window. Leicester’s recruitment was dire last season. The acquisitions of Jannik Vestergaard, Ryan Bertrand, Boubakary Soumare and Patson Daka have all proven unsuccessful. The pressure is on to improve.

Action Plus Sports Images / Alamy Stock Photo

There are doubts above some other key names at the King Power. Jamie Vardy is 35 and can’t continue forever. He missed 13 Premier League matches last season. He only missed 12 in the four seasons before then combined. Can Leicester replace the 15 goals he has contributed in each of the last five years? The options aren’t there in the squad right now.

Looking a little further down the line, the winds of change are blowing at Leicester. The contracts of Vardy, Tielemans, Jonny Evans, Ayoze Perez, Caglar Soyuncu, Daniel Amartey, Hamza Choudhury and Nampalys Mendy all expire next summer. James Maddison, Wilfred Ndidi, Kelechi Iheanacho, Luke Thomas, Marc Albrighton and Dennis Praet follow the year after.

It’s a massive reconstruction job and will Brendan Rodgers stick around to manage it? The Northern Irishman has been in charge at the King Power since February 2019. It’s already his longest managerial stint at a club. I’d be very surprised if Rodgers is still in charge at the King Power by the end of the season.

That instability affects things on the pitch. Leicester are sleepwalking into chaos but the bookies still expect a top 8 finish. That warrants an F grade.

Selection: Leicester to Finish Bottom Half (TRACKED BET)
Odds: 2.10
Provider: bet365
Stakes: 10/10

Leicester Premier League Odds 2022/23	Best Odds	Implied Percentage
TO WIN TITLE	251.00	0.4%
TOP 2 FINISH	81.00	1.2%
TOP 4 FINISH	21.00	4.6%
TOP 6 FINISH	7.00	14.2%
TOP HALF FINISH	1.91	51.5%
BOTTOM HALF FINISH	2.10	46.7%
RELEGATION	17.00	5.7%
TO FINISH BOTTOM	67.00	1.4%

Best odds available as at 16:30 on August 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Premier League Betting Value Report Cards 2022/23 Best Bets

Team	Grade	Best Bet	Odds	Stakes	Bookmaker
Tottenham Hotspur	A+	Top W/O Man City & Liverpool	2.75	10/10	10Bet
Arsenal	A	Finish Top 4	2.80	9/10	Paddy Power
Wolves	A-	Finish Top Half	3.50	8/10	SkyBet
Crystal Palace	B+	Finish Top Half	3.50	6/10	Unibet
Nottingham Forest	B	Top Promoted Team	2.50	8/10	William Hill
West Ham United	B	Seaon Match Bet vs Leicester	1.72	10/10	bet365
Manchester United	B-	Between 65 and 67 Points	6.00	2/10	bet365
Liverpool	C	Under 84 Points	2.10	6/10	bet365
Brentford	C	Over 39 Points	1.72	8/10	bet365
Brighton	C-	Finish Top Half	2.20	4/10	SkyBet
Newcastle United	D+	Finish Bottom Half	3.40	2/10	Betfred
Manchester City	D	Under 88 Points	2.20	7/10	bet365
Aston Villa	D	Finish Bottom Half	2.10	3/10	SkyBet
Everton	D-	Finish Bottom Half	1.33	10/10	BetVictor
Southampton	D-	Relegated	4.00	4/10	William Hill
Fulham	E	Relegated	2.50	8/10	SkyBet
Bournemouth	E	Finish Bottom	3.00	7/10	888Sport
Chelsea	E	Not to Finish Top 4	2.10	8/10	SkyBet
Leeds	E-	Relegated	3.30	6/10	Paddy Power
Leicester City	F	Finish Bottom Half	2.10	10/10	bet365