Botafogo vs LDU Quito Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

The 2024 Copa Libertadores has reached the halfway point and our South American expert Nathan Joyes is continuing his journey to find value, this time with his Botafogo vs LDU Quito  prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. 

Botafogo’s five match winning streak came to an end with a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Bahia and currently sitting bottom of Group D, the pressure is on for the Brazilians to deliver. LDU Quito could put one foot into the knockouts with a victory in Rio.

• Botafogo vs LDU Quito Tip 1: BTTS Yes
• Botafogo vs LDU Quito Tip 2: LDU Quito +2 Corner Handicap
• Botafogo vs LDU Quito Tip 3: Half Most Goals – Second

Botafogo vs LDU Quito Prediction 1: Both defences to be breached

Brazil, Copa Libertadores, Thursday, May 9th, 01:30 (UK)

New head coach Artur Jorge has steadied the ship since his arrival from Braga but there’s a considerable amount of pressure in this role.

Having spent big during the off-season, expectations are high for Botafogo to step up and deliver a trophy this campaign. The Libertadores is certainly on their radar, but after one too many slip ups, they find themselves bottom with three points at the halfway stage.

After a fine run of form, including a win over Flamengo at the Maracana, old habits crept back into play with a frustrating 2-1 defeat vs Bahia.

A handball was picked up by VAR to award a penalty, and despite Jeffinho equalising in the second half, a quick counter from the visitors saw Botafogo’s defensive issues resurface.

LDU Quito head into this fixture full of confidence, with a game in hand domestically to go top of their league. In the Libertadores, they’ve been steady, as the Sudamericana champions continue to prove a dangerous opponent both at home or on their travels.

The Ecuadorians beat Botafogo in altitude, but the way in which Botafogo’s defence continues to be exploited with wide spaces looks unlikely to be resolved within a few days.

With plenty on the line, this should be an entertaining affair, and both teams can find the back of the net.

• Botafogo vs LDU Quito Prediction 1: BTTS – Yes
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Botafogo vs LDU Quito Prediction 2: Intriguing angle catches the eye

In both home matches to date in the Libertadores, Botafogo has won 3-1 and lost 3-1. The game against Universitario they were in complete control, while their opening match vs Junior was a disaster.

However, whether chasing the match or looking to dictate the overall play, Botafogo’s narrow style of play means they don’t tend to rack up the corner count – even at home.

In their 3-1 win over the Peruvians, the visitors won the corner count 4-3, while when losing to Junior, Botafogo only won five corners to their opponents three, despite heavily dominating possession.

Both in this competition and domestically, Botafogo have proven vulnerable to counter attacks, which has either led to goalscoring opportunities or corners. LDU Quito will have witnessed their recent matches, and similar tactics will be utilised by the Ecuadorians.

It’s a slightly rogue angle to my usual selections, but the logic and stats back up my reasoning.

• Botafogo vs LDU Quito Prediction 2: LDU Quito +2 Corner Handicap
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Botafogo vs LDU Quito Prediction 3: Lack of concentration to expose defence

As we saw in Botafogo’s recent defeat to Bahia, the hosts struggled to find their rhythm in the first half in front of their own fans – and not for the first time this season.

Admittedly, they were unfortunate to fall a goal behind due to a controversial handball inside the box, but they failed to create anything meaningful against a resilient defence.

LDU Quito are a side which knows exactly how to set up defensively and hit on the counter. It’s a main reason for their success in the Sudamericana last year. They are also a point above Botafogo in the table, and won’t need to expose themselves early on in the match.

But as we’ve seen with the hosts, defensive lapses come into play, especially in the second 45 minutes. 

More goals were scored in the second half at home vs Bahia, Vitoria, Universitario and Juventude – their last four home matches.

• Botafogo vs LDU Quito Prediction 3: Half Most Goals – Second
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Botafogo vs LDU Quito Prediction odds via bet365 as at 13:00, May 4th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Botafogo vs LDU Quito Team News and Possible Lineups: Tough calls for Jorge to make

Botafogo has plenty of attacking talent to choose from but squeezing them all in has brought issues for the hosts.

With so many wingers available, the Portuguese head coach hasn’t quite been able to find the right balance – especially as he looks to sure up his team defensively.

Forward Tiquinho Soares remains sidelined with injury which will likely see Junior Santos lead the line. Record signing Luiz Henrique was substituted early on against Bahia after a poor performance, but will likely be given another opportunity to shine in such an important match.

LDU Quito head into this fixture with no injury concerns to worry about, and will be hoping to record a second win over the Brazilians.

Botafogo possible starting lineup:
  Fernandez; Hugo, Bastos, Lucas Halter, Ponte, Savarino, Jeffinho, Barbosa, Freitas, Santos, Henrique

LDU Quito possible starting lineup:
Dominguez; Quinonez, Rodriguez, Ade, Quinteros, Julio, Villamil, Piovi, Alzugaray, Estrada, Barrios

Match Stats: Visitors unbeaten against hosts

• LDU Quito has faced Botafogo three times in 12 months and has failed to be beaten (one win and two draws).
• LDU Quito beat Botafogo 1-0 in the reverse fixture.
• Botafogo has conceded in three of their last five home matches.

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