Portugal vs France Prediction: Euro 2024 Team News and Lineups Preview

Welcome to our Portugal vs France prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. The Volksparkstadion in Hamburg is the venue for this massive Euro 2024 quarter final match between Portugal and France. Roberto Martinez’s Portugal were given an almighty scare against Slovenia in the previous round, needing penalties to prevail. 

France edged a 1-0 victory vs Belgium, but neither team has looked especially convincing yet. Our expert, Steve Wyss, previews the game with the best bets and analysis.  

We sat down with Mikael Silvestre here at bettingexpert to get his thoughts on the game, before attention switches to Steve’s three favourite bets for the heavyweight clash.

• Portugal vs France Tip 1: Under 2 Asian goals
• Portugal vs France Tip 2: Half time draw
• Portugal vs France Tip 3 & 4: Diogo Costa & Mike Maignan player of the match

Mikael Silvestre on France’s creative spark, N’golo Kante, and starting Camavinga against Portugal

France are yet to score from open play in the tournament so far. How concerning is this when you look at the likes of Germany and Spain in comparison who have been able to find the back of the net throughout?

“It’s been a difficult tournament in the attacking phase of the pitch. France have been very strong defensively through the team. We are a tough team to score against but we haven’t been able to capitalise on the opportunities we’ve been creating.”

It’s something that needs to be corrected if France wants to go all the way.”

Do you think France are missing the creative spark of Paul Pogba to help unlock the talents of Griezmann, Mbappe and Dembele?

“A fit and ready to compete Paul Pogba would be a great addition but we have to cope with his absence.” 

“Last game Greizmann played on the right side which put him away from the position where he can create and be the link. We’ve made chances but the final touch and shot hasn’t been good enough.”

France haven’t lost any of their 19 World Cup or Euros games where N’Golo Kante is playing. The longest unbeaten run by any European player in major tournament history. Two man of the match awards at the ongoing Euros. Is he perhaps their most important player?

“It was a surprise to see him in the squad but he has been superb. Two times man of the match and we’ve got to keep him fit if we want to progress because he’s been impressive. 

“He hasn’t been in the squad for two years but he’s back like he never left.”

With the suspension of Rabiot, can we imagine getting Griezman in his real position (No. 10) or is it better to get Fofana or Camavinga and have the same team we saw against Belgium ?

“In midfield Portugal have got Paulinha, Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva so I think I would put Camavinga in. He’s played left back for Real Madrid and the national team but I think he can fit in Rabiot’s spot. It’s his time to shine so I would go with him.”

Can we consider there is something special with Deschamps ? Luck or the incredible skills and knowledge of his team, especially when you see the only substitution against Belgium (Kolo Muani which was not the obvious real deal) ?

“Deschamps has been in charge for 12 years now. He’s reached two World Cup finals and won once and the final of Euro 2016 which is a very good record. He’s got very  good players at his disposal and one of the best players in the world in Mbappe.”

“A good coach without the right players isn’t winning anything so it’s a good marriage.He knows the international management scene.”

Mikael Silvestre’s Portugal vs France prediction: France.

Portugal vs France Prediction 1: Tight and cagey affair expected between two good defences

Germany, Euro 2024, Friday, July 5th, 20:00 (UK)

The Round of 16 match between France and Belgium played out pretty much as I expected. It was a low-scoring, tight and turgid affair, ultimately decided by an own goal. I expected a reaction from France, and they were a little bit better, although truth be told, 0-0 would’ve been a fairer result inside 90 mins. Portugal couldn’t break down Slovenia and needed penalties after a 0-0 stalemate. Is Ronaldo a problem for them? The veteran forward is fairly one-dimensional now and clearly does not fire on all cylinders. A lot of the big offensive players in this tournament are not at their best, and that includes French captain Kylian Mbappe. He seems to be struggling to adapt to life in his mask following a brutal, broken nose. Neither of these attacks seems in great rhythm, so I think we will see another close game, which could be decided by one goal or potentially go all the way to extra time and penalties. 

There will be a lot of talk about the high-class offensive players on this pitch, but not enough will be mentioned about some of the defenders. William Saliba is arguably playing at the best level of any centre-back in the world right now, whilst finally, the likes of Jules Kounde and Dayot Upamecano are actually performing solidly as a unit. On the Portuguese side of things, they have the experience of Pepe, the fast pace of Nuno Tavares mixed in with the exceptional Ruben Dias. All of these players have enjoyed strong tournaments so far and will not be easy to score against. 

The goal line is a little lower than what I’d hoped for, but taking under 2 Asian goals looks quite a safe play. Admittedly, there is a decent chance of a push from this bet, but it’s difficult to imagine this fixture going crazy. 

• Portugal vs France Prediction 1: Under 2 Asian goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.03
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Portugal vs France Prediction 2: First half stalemate again on the cards

This bet will come as no surprise to regular readers. In matches where I like under goals, or for the game to be potentially close and tight, then backing the half-time draw makes a lot of sense. The odds are just about acceptable here at 1.95, but logically, things should start quite slow here. Both nations will have a ton of respect for each other and, based on what we’ve seen at this tournament so far, will be reluctant to show their hand early. Portugal have been drawing at the interval 0-0 twice so far in 2024, whilst in France fixtures, there’s just been one total goal in the first half. 

There is a temptation to back ‘no goalscorer in this game, and the 0-0 over 90 minutes certainly has every chance of landing. The first half has an even higher chance of ending goalless, so backing the half-time draw has become almost an automatic bet for matches involving France. The only time that Portugal conceded a first-half goal was in the final group game vs Georgia, a match which ultimately didn’t matter to them. One moment of magic or set piece could thwart this pick, but based on logic and percentages, then taking the HT draw makes a ton of sense. 

• Portugal vs France Prediction 2: Half time draw (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Portugal vs France Prediction 3 & 4: Goalkeepers could be the match winners

We are now at the stage of the tournament where goalkeepers can become heroes. We saw that in the Round of 16 where Portugal keeper Diogo Costa saved all three penalties to help them win the shootout. In turn, he was named player of the match, and something similar could happen here. The actual result is very difficult to call, and there are some arguments for both teams to prevail. Very little could separate the two teams until the final whistle and this is another contender to go all the way to spot kicks. 

Should that happen, and especially if this is a low-scoring match, then there’s a tremendous chance that one of the two custodians will be given the player of the match award. Diogo Costa can be backed at 9/1 and Mike Maignan at 10/1 in this market. Both are top-quality keepers who could even be in the running if their respective teams won 1-0 in regulation. It would not be a surprise if either keeper pulled off a clinic of saves or produced some world-class stops to put them in contention before a shootout. Both of these prices look big and worth a small stake.

• Portugal vs France Prediction 3: Diogo Costa player of the match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 10.0
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 1/10

• Portugal vs France Prediction 4: Mike Maignan player of the match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 11.0
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 1/10

Portugal vs France Prediction odds via bet365 as at 11:30, June 3rd, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Portugal vs France Euro 2024 Team News and Possible Lineups: Martinez to stick with Ronaldo

There have been some calls for Portugal manager Roberto Martinez to drop Ronaldo. But he will probably stay in the team and there is a good chance they will remain unchanged. Diogo Jota and Francisco Conceicao are the two players pushing most for a start, at the possible expense of Rafael Leao or Bernardo Silva. France will have to make one change with Adrien Rabiot suspended. That could mean a switch of formation to a 4-2-3-1. Randal Kolo Muani is a massive candidate to come back into the side ahead of the underperforming Marcus Thuram. 

Portugal possible starting lineup:
Costa, Mendes, Pepe, Dias, Cancelo, Vitinha, Palhinha, Fernandes, Leão, Ronaldo, Silva

France possible starting lineup:
Maignan, Hernandez, Saliba, Upamecano, Kounde, Kante, Tchouameni, Griezmann, Kolo Muani, Mbappe, Dembele

Euro 2024 Match Stats: Repeat or revenge?

• This is a repeat of the Euro 2016 final which Portugal won 1-0 AET
• 4 of the last 5 meetings between the two sides have ended with under 1.5 goals
• Both sides rank in the top three for shots allowed at this tournament
• France have been fouled the second most of any team at this tournament (13.50 per game)

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