Opposing Groggy European Hangovers

The business end of the Europa League will always present opportunities following first leg ties. Players’ minds and bodies have been through the ringer on a Thursday evening, whilst the manager weighs up how many players to rest in the domestic league on the weekend.

Sam Ingram has targeted two weekend fixtures where the home teams are eyeing European qualification, and the away sides are focused on the looming Europa League Quarter-Final second legs.

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Newcastle vs Man United: Lyon Lethargy

We’ll start with the scheduling – this is clearly in Newcastle’s favour. Man United slogged it out in Lyon on Thursday night (2-2) which wasn’t plane sailing. Newcastle will have had six days since their previous game against Leicester – United will have less than half the amount of rest.

It’s a Thursday > Sunday (16:30) turnaround for Man United. Ruben Amorim’s team are gradually improving, but they’re still not at the level of this Newcastle squad which is growing and evolving together, winning silverware together, and chasing Champions League qualification.

There were concerns about a potential hangover following The EFL Cup win but it has seemingly lifted the squad instead, and with that I’m pretty sure they have enough in front of home support to outmuscle the weary legs arriving on Sunday afternoon.

Newcastle have won seven of 11 games in 2025. They’ve also won 11 of their last 15 Premier League games – the first of those 15 games came on December 14th and since then, no team has won more games in the Premier League.

They are very much in form full of confidence, and worth backing on Sunday.

Champions League In The Crosshairs

Newcastle are also fighting for Champions League qualification. Man United, who sit 13th in the PL, will place priority on their Europa League campaign over everything else which might prompt changes for the second leg next week. United have returned 38 points so far this season – BETSiE projects Man United to finish on 47 which is 13 points less than last season.

It has been pretty poor. Newcastle’s campaign has been the opposite with silverware locked in.

Zero distractions all week, they’re the better, more cohesive team – the hosts are more efficient and more likely to score in the final third. Newcastle have accumulated 9.7xG more than United over the course of the season. They’ve allowed 7.9 fewer xGA and were much the better team in the 2-0 away win at Old Trafford creating 4 Big Chances.

The Magpies look a good bet this week.

Aberdeen vs Rangers: Ten Men, Twenty Weary Legs

This is another situational spot where I’m looking to take on a team in Europa League action. It’s another set of circumstances where the away side have almost little-to-no interest in the league campaign. Celtic have won the SPL by a canter. There’s no catching them. And there’s no catching Rangers in second.

The main worry here is that Celtic can win the title this weekend if they beat Kilmarnock and Rangers lose to Aberdeen. Obviously, if given the chance, Rangers would like to avoid being that final reason why Celtic have won the league. They’d much prefer that to be due to Celtic winning a game of football than them losing.

But, regardless, I don’t think that’ll make any difference to team selection. The Europa League priorities are clear and Barry Ferguson will approach Aberdeen on Sunday with that at the forefront of his thinking.

Eyes On Third

Similar to the Newcastle vs Manchester United selection, this also involves a home team with eyes on 3rd in the SPL. Aberdeen have it all to play for. Unfortunately for them, the hosts, they experienced a horrendous run of form over December/January where they couldn’t win a game. That was odd in itself because Aberdeen had just navigated a start to the season which had them right up there with Celtic and Rangers.

Counting the Scottish League Cup, Aberdeen won 13 games in a row to begin the season, which made that fall off a month or so later so unexpected.

They’re gradually working their way into form, losing once in their last seven, which was a battering away to Celtic, and now Aberdeen find themselves in a position to clinch third thanks to their early season form. It’s currently a scrap with Hibs for that honour, currently one point behind – so this is a massive game for them. Third place grants safe passage to the second qualifying round of the Europa League and fourth place is the Europa Conference League second qualifying round.

Get The Draw On Your Side

I love the handicap. I took -0.75AH earlier in the week, but I’d still recommend +0.5AH given the circumstances and the situation.

Athletic Club are very good. Pacey. Direct. The Spaniards commandeered possession for the majority of the match with Rangers going down to ten men early on in the game. Eleven versus ten men is a sure fire way to zap the legs ahead of a Sunday afternoon fixture.

Thursday night will take its toll mentally and physically.

In the past six weeks, with the chances of overturning the points gap to Celtic diminishing, Rangers lost to St Mirren at home under Phillipe Clement, Motherwell at home under Ferguson, plus the 2-0 loss in their most recent outing at home to Hibs.

The Gers have fallen to defeat in three of their last six which is unusual in Scotland for Rangers. All we need here is a draw and we return full profits.

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