Nottingham Forest: You Can Keep Your Possession

Lofty possession figures aren’t required to dominate games and be successful in the Premier League, said Nottingham Forest in 2024/25. Pep Guardiola, Enzo Maresca, and pretty much anyone attached to Manchester City might have ushered you into thinking differently. Still, there’s a club on the banks of the River Trent flipping that possession-heavy script on its head. 

Nuno Espírito Santo’s Nottingham Forest doesn’t want the ball. They don’t need it. They’ll do as much damage without it – up until a point. Sam Ingram and BETSiE are here to analyse Nottingham Forest and their chances of reaching the top four.

Premier League 2024/25 Final Table Prediction courtesy of BETSiE.

Sit In, Soak It Up, and Spring Forward 

No team in the Premier League averages less possession than Nottingham Forest (39.56%) after 29 Premier League games.

The 14.85 Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA) which Forest allow for their opponents before attempting to regain possession, coupled with their lowly time spent on the ball, should paint an insightful picture of how they operate.  

They don’t want the ball for the majority of the time. Forest are quite comfortable for you to have it. In terms of a targeted press in their opponent’s half, that can be left to Arsenal (8.51PPDA), Bournemouth, Tottenham and Liverpool, to name a handful. Nuno’s Champions League-chasing Trees will sit in, soak up incoming pressure, and look to spring forward in transition.

Of course, any tactical ideologies and approach to games is helped by having a striker in supreme form. Chris Wood’s 0.30 goals per shot is the most efficient in the division. The imposing New Zealander is running at a strike rate of 0.69 goals per90, registering 18 goals in 26.0 90s in Nottingham Forest red. It’s all quite remarkable. Possessing a figure as clinical at the top end of the pitch will so often be game-changing at this level.

Wood Can’t Do It Alone

Wood’s 18 goals from just 11.0xG makes him the biggest overperformer in the Premier League. Forest, as a collective, are the biggest Expected Points (xPTS) overperformers in the division, earning 54.0 from 43.48 xPTS. With any overperformance, perhaps internal questions will hound Nuno regarding whether this output level is sustainable. Will Forest instead revert to mean and take a hit in the final third productivity in the final nine games?

Regardless, Wood can’t do it on his own. Enter Callum Hudson-Odoi, Anthony Elanga and Morgan Gibbs-White. What Chris Wood can’t do so well in terms of mobility, running the channels and stretching Premier League defences, the aforementioned three most certainly can. Elanga (3.86SCA) and Hudson-Odoi (3.85SCA) create mirroring Shot Creating Actions per90 this season, showcasing their effectiveness off either flank game-by-game. Propping up those two out wide whilst operating in the middle of the park and tasked to get close to Chris Wood, Gibbs-White is chipping in with a healthy 3.79SCA per90.

Elliot Anderson, bombing forward from midfield and supplementing a lively attacking unit, isn’t too far behind, either: 3.23SCA per90. There are multiple components to this Forest side once the ball is turned over and the team progresses through the thirds. If it’s not Elanga, then Gibbs-White and Hudson-Odoi will happily combine, and vice versa.

Nottingham Forest’s 36 shots following a fast break is bettered by only Liverpool (56), Chelsea (42) and Bournemouth (37) in the Premier League in 2024/25.

Defences Win Championships… And Champions League Spots

The front-footed Trees’ 39.5% forward passing percentage also ranks as the most significant in the Premier League, highlighting one of two things. Nuno’s men have one thing in mind when receiving and/or turning over possession, plus the areas when receiving possession will typically be deep in one’s half where the logical next pass is forward.

Only Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest boast three players in the league’s top fifteen for tackles won in the defensive third. The art of allowing your opponents the ball in your half of the pitch has to be built on a solid defensive foundation. That approach must rest on the desire for your defensive components to pinch the ball, be aggressive, and spring upfield in transition. 

Neco Williams (43) on the left, Ola Aina (39) on the right, and Elliot Anderson (41) in the middle, who evidently carries out his midfield role superbly in both areas of the pitch, poses a sturdy trio in three crucial areas of the defensive third. Aina has won possession back 156 times from right-back for Forest this season – he’s only trumped by five others in that dogged metric.

Wolves (340) are the solitary team to have won more tackles in the defensive third of the pitch than Forest’s 314. Compare that to the 49 won in the attacking third – the fewest in the entire division – and it’s clear what the instruction is from Nuno and his backroom team: let them have it, welcome them into our half, and wait to pick them off.

The central defensive duo of Nikola Milenkovic and Murillo have been shining lights in Nottingham this season. The former arrived from Fiorentina in the summer and quickly became an inspired signing alongside one of world football’s most coveted central defenders. To have a centre-back pairing that solid, in front of Matz Sels in between the sticks, who has kept a Premier League-high of 12 clean sheets to the delight of a large section of FPL managers worldwide, provides an incredibly robust spine to a tight-knit defensive unit.

Get Your Passports Ready, Love From BETSiE

It’s refreshing to see a team break the mould and do things differently, especially when they’re successful. Can Forest keep their foot on the gas and navigate to a Champions League spot? 

Sitting in third in March after 29 games, five points ahead of a Manchester City team likely affected by an incoming points deduction – can they get over the line? Absolutely. 

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, projects a third-placed finish for Nottingham Forest on 67.3 points, 1.5 points ahead of Manchester City. It’s important to note that any potential points deduction is not factored into BETSiE’s algorithm. Her focus lies solely on what we see on the pitch. 

Back from Manchester City (65.8 xPTS), it’s Newcastle (64.0 xPTS) and Chelsea (63.0 xPTS) who make up the top seven. In a Premier League campaign where fifth spot should open the door to tasting Champions League football, Nottingham Forest should be feeling confident. 

The bookmakers have Nuno’s men priced at 1.57 for a top-four finish, implying a probability of 63.7%. BETSiE is a little more bullish on Forest’s chances, handing them a 67.4% chance of residing in the top four when the music stops in May. 

When analysing whether a team can or can’t come the end of the season, there is one external factor that can’t be diverted. That’s the scheduling. Out of the entire Premier League, only Chelsea’s (1.16) and Wolves’ (1.17) remaining opponents have a lower points per90 home/away average total after 29 games than Forest’s 1.20. Of course, this metric is somewhat flawed since it doesn’t account for current form and on-the-beachness as the season dwindles to a close. 

Can they do it? Yes. Will they do it? Let’s lean towards yes. Nottingham Forest are showing few signs of slowing down.

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