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Horse Racing Nice vs Metz Prediction: Tips and Best Bets Preview
The Saturday afternoon Ligue 1 slot is Nice vs Metz from the south coast of France and we have the prediction, tips and best bets preview at the Allianz Riviera.
French Ligue 1 betting expert Steve Wyss gives his take on the game as Nice look to try and close the gap on leaders PSG. The visitors, Metz, are suddenly hovering above the relegation zone and under significant pressure after five consecutive defeats.
Nice vs Metz Prediction and Tips Preview
- Nice vs Metz Tip 1: Nice -1.25 Asian Handicap
- Nice vs Metz Tip 2: Draw HT/ Nice FT
- Nice vs Metz Tip 3: Evan Guessand to Score Anytime
In this article:
Nice vs Metz Tip 1: Hosts should claim a comfortable victory against struggling Metz
France, Ligue 1, Saturday, 27th January, 16:00 UK
Nice are second in the Ligue 1 table and are unbeaten at home. They have been known for a stellar defence this season and, since the opening day of the season, have conceded only one goal at the Allianz Riviera. Les Aiglons can control matches really well at this venue and ooze confidence after winning five consecutive contests in front of their own fans.
Taking Nice on a -1.25 Asian handicap stands out as a solid play. The danger with Nice is always a 1-0 victory, but facing such a lowly-ranked side then, they must fancy themselves to bag multiple goals. Francesco Farioli’s men have netted at least twice in three of their last four home games in Ligue 1.
Metz travel here having lost their last five consecutive league games, and they are hovering just above the relegation zone. They have had a two-week break ahead of this game due to them being knocked out of the French Cup. This might be a good or a bad thing because this team might lack rhythm after only playing two competitive games in 2024 so far. The last time we saw them in action was a 0-1 home defeat vs Toulouse. Scoring goals has been a massive problem for Metz all season, with only Clermont netting fewer times.
The addition of Georges Mikautadze, who has returned to the club on loan from Ajax, is a boost, but he might need some time to settle in. All things considered, it would be a surprise if Metz managed to obtain anything from their trip to the south coast. The -1.25 handicap on Les Aiglons looks like a solid option, with a half-loss surely the worst eventuality.
- Nice vs Metz Tip 1: Nice -1.25 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.04
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 9/10
Nice vs Metz Tip 2: Tight first half can set up Nice victory
The pattern of Nice matches has been very consistent all season. They are a strong defensive side and tend not to take that many risks in the first half of games. Francesco Farioli likes to feel out his opponents and make a few chess-board-like moves to test his counterpart.
Nice have been drawing at half-time in 11 of their 18 Ligue 1 games, with the majority of those at 0-0. On seven of those occasions, Les Aiglons have gone on to claim victory, and they have a strong second-half conversion rate. We can expect the hosts to pile on the pressure after the break, so it makes sense to add some value to the HT/FT result rather than just backing the HT draw.
Metz are the clear underdog here, and a draw would be a good result for them at the Allianz Riviera. I think we can expect them to be quite cautious out of the blocks and operate quite defensively. Eight of their 18 Ligue 1 fixtures have been all square at half-time this season, and they have the potential to frustrate Nice for 45 mins at least.
The chances of Metz scoring a goal in this match are quite low, and the more the match progresses, the more likely Les Grenats will struggle. Nice should win the second half of this fixture, so if the visitors can hold out in the first period, then 2.75 on offer for HT draw/FT Nice could look like a huge price.
- Nice vs Metz Tip 2: Draw HT/ Nice FT (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.75
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Nice vs Metz Tip 3: Evan Guessand gathering momentum in Moffi absence
Nice’s top striker is Terem Moffi, who netted 18 goals in Ligue 1 last season. In a more defensive setup, he’s not been as prolific this campaign, hitting the back of the net just six times. Moffi is ruled out of this match due to AFCON duty with Nigeria, so it’s a chance for someone else to step up.
Nice is likely to call on Evan Guessand to start up front in his absence. He was given the opportunity away versus Rennes in the previous round but lacked service in that fixture. However, this should be a match in which Nice creates several more opportunities.
Guessand was on the scoresheet last week in the Coupe de France vs Bordeaux. That was just his second goal of the season, but it should have filled him with a lot of confidence. He regularly gets minutes off the bench and has started enough games this season to feel part of this team. Playing as the starting striker for any Ligue 1 team vs Metz this season is going to appeal to anyone, and Guessand knows he’ll get opportunities.
The odds of 2.50 to hit the back of the net are far too generous on him here. Moffi being away is perhaps not being fully factored in.
- Nice vs Metz Tip 3: Evan Guessand to Score Anytime(TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.50
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 8/10
Nice vs Metz Prediction odds via bet365 as at 07;56, January 22nd, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Nice vs Metz Team News Preview: AFCON continues to affect both teams
Nice are without four players due to AFCON duty, the most significant being striker Terrem Moffi. The likes of Youssef Atal, Jeremie Boga and Hicham Boudaoui are also in Africa right now. Key midfielder Kephrem Thuram remains doubtful with injury. Metz are also missing several players to AFCON including Lamine Camara who is catching the eye with Senegal. Fali Cande and Ablie Jallow could return if their respective nations get knocked out early, but must be rated doubtful.
The Predicted Ligue 1 Table
| POSITION | CLUB | GAMES | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 34 | 22.7 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 78.4 | 31.3 | 47.1 | 75.3 |
| 2 | Nice | 34 | 18.1 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 43.4 | 26.2 | 17.2 | 63.2 |
| 3 | Brest | 34 | 17.5 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 52.2 | 33.7 | 18.4 | 60.3 |
| 4 | Monaco | 34 | 17.6 | 6.7 | 9.7 | 60.1 | 44.2 | 15.9 | 59.5 |
| 5 | Lille | 34 | 15.5 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 48.3 | 31.8 | 16.5 | 57.4 |
| 6 | Marseille | 34 | 15.3 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 52.1 | 35.1 | 17.0 | 56.7 |
| 7 | Reims | 34 | 15.9 | 6.0 | 12.1 | 47.9 | 42.9 | 5.0 | 53.8 |
| 8 | Lens | 34 | 14.3 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 47.4 | 40.0 | 7.3 | 51.5 |
| 9 | Rennes | 34 | 12.2 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 50.0 | 42.0 | 8.1 | 47.4 |
| 10 | Strasbourg | 34 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 38.0 | 43.3 | -5.3 | 45.0 |
| 11 | Montpellier | 34 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 41.3 | 45.1 | -3.8 | 41.2 |
| 12 | Le Havre | 34 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 13.6 | 36.4 | 44.8 | -8.3 | 39.4 |
| 13 | Lyon | 34 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 17.1 | 38.5 | 56.4 | -17.9 | 35.2 |
| 14 | Nantes | 34 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 18.3 | 39.1 | 59.3 | -20.2 | 34.0 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 34 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 15.2 | 33.8 | 50.5 | -16.6 | 33.1 |
| 16 | Metz | 34 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 18.9 | 28.8 | 53.3 | -24.5 | 29.5 |
| 17 | Clermont | 34 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 18.9 | 28.4 | 55.4 | -27.1 | 28.1 |
| 18 | Lorient | 34 | 5.5 | 9.8 | 18.7 | 35.6 | 64.4 | -28.9 | 26.4 |
Nice vs Metz Stats Preview:
- Nice have the best defensive record in Ligue 1 and conceded just two goals at home all season.
- With five consecutive home victories in Ligue 1, Nice are finding form at the Allianz Riviera.
- Metz have lost five consecutive league games and are only one place above the relegation spots.
- Both sides rank in the bottom half of the table for cards obtained this season and have been operating quite clean.
- Metz average the second fewest shots per game of any team at just 9.7 per 90 mins.
- The away team has strangely won the last four H2H meetings.
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