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Boxing Newcastle vs Arsenal Expert Football Betting Tips: Value Bets, Team News and OPTA Stats
Saturday night’s Premier League clash serves up a treat and Nathan Joyes is on hand for his Newcastle vs Arsenal expert football betting tips. It’s not Nathan’s usual type of South American content, but he has eyed a Brazilian who may well have a big impact on proceedings.
Second meets sixth at St James’ Park. Mikel Arteta’s men will be hoping to bridge the gap with North London rivals in first place. Let’s get to it.
Newcastle vs Arsenal: Expert Football Betting Tips
- Bettingexpert’s Value Bet: Arsenal Draw No Bet
- Longshot Expert Bet Tip: Martinelli SOT, Over 10 Corners, Under 6.5 Cards
Odds via bet365 as at 13:15, November 1st, 2023. Odds may now differ.
Bettingexpert’s Value Bet Tip: Arsenal to repeat last year’s result
England, Premier League, Saturday 4th November, 17:30 (UK)
Despite Newcastle once again proving strong at home, balancing the Champions League is new to Eddie Howe’s side. After a disappointing 1-0 defeat to Dortmund, Newcastle dropped points on the road, drawing 2-2 with Wolves at Molineux.
To add insult to injury, Alexander Isak picked up an injury during their match with Dortmund, although they have an adequate replacement in Callum Wilson. With Sandro Tonali on the sidelines for some time, the last issue Howe needs is key players injured during a busy period for the club.
This was their second defeat of the season after Liverpool’s incredible comeback, and we’ve often seen teams struggle when entering a European competition after years of absence.
Arsenal returned to the Champions League themselves, yet having competed in the Europa League the past few seasons, Arteta’s squad is far more prepared for the midweek fixtures.
On the road, Arsenal have proven to be a tough nut to crack this season. A trio of wins to nil, albeit against sides they should be beating, has shown a resilient side to their game Arsenal have lacked in their recent history.
Their comeback against Chelsea would have pleased Arteta after a sluggish start. William Saliba’s handball gifted Palmer the opener, but no one can be blamed for Mykhailo Mudryk’s cross-come shot – I’ll let you decide if he meant it.
Either way, Arsenal haven’t looked fragile on the road, and after an impressive performance on the road against Sevilla before a routine win over Sheffield United, the Gunners head north full of confidence.
Last season, Arsenal came away from St James’ Park with all three points with a professional 2-0 victory, and there’s every chance they can spoil the Geordie party once more on Saturday evening.
Bettingexpert’s Alternative Expert Bet Tip: Martinelli to cause Magpies issues
I couldn’t go through a whole article without mentioning one South American player, and Brazil’s Martinelli is at the heart of my longshot tip.
The 22-year-old not only scored the winner at the Emirates against Premier League holders Man City, but his electric pace saw him open the scoring against Sevilla in Spain.
Although pulled after 66 minutes against Sheffield United with the game sewn up, the Brazilian found the target in the first half – which is what we’re after in this fixture.
Since his return from injury, Martinelli’s form has caught the eye. Up against the likes of Schar, Lascelles and even Trippier, his pace will be a problem, and if Arsenal break well – as we saw against Man City and Sevilla – he can test Nick Pope’s gloves.
What has been more noticeable from Arsenal’s away trips has been their dominance in the final third – which has led to plenty of corners: seven came at Stamford Bridge, eight at Palace and 11 on Merseyside. No longer are Arsenal an easy target away from home.
Newcastle themselves have seen over ten corners land in all Premier League home ties apart from a defensive Burnley side.
The final leg is hoping both teams are on their best behaviour. However, Arsenal have been well disciplined on the road aside from Takehiro Tomiyasu’s two yellows against Palace.
The Gunners were on track for just one yellow per match on their travels until a late pair were brandished at the Bridge, but aside from a couple of handbags thrown, Arteta has his side well drilled.
Howe also doesn’t like his team to be swept up in any antics, either. Aside from the first game of the season, Newcastle hasn’t received more than three yellows in a match. On that occasion, Tonali received a needless yellow in the final minute – but he’ll be watching from the stands anyway.
- Bettingexpert’s Longshot Expert Bet Tip: Martinelli SOT, Over 10 Corners, Under 6.5 Cards
- Best Odds: 5.43
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 5/10
Newcastle vs Arsenal Team News: Isak and Tonali absences for hosts
As previously mentioned, Isak will be missing after coming off against Dortmund in the Champions League, which will leave Callum Wilson to lead the line. However, with seven Premier League goals to his name, Arsenal will need to be switched on. Tonali will also be missing as his ten-month ban has begun.
Arsenal will be without their own top striker, Gabriel Jesus after he was also injured in the Champions League. In his absence, Eddie Nketiah will start in his place after scoring his first Premier League hattrick against Sheffield United last weekend.
Newcastle vs Arsenal OPTA Stats and Facts: Head-to-heads siding with the travellers
- Newcastle have won just one of their last 10 Premier League games against Arsenal (D1 L8), failing to score on eight occasions in that run.
- Only Manchester United (14) have won more Premier League away games against Newcastle than Arsenal (13), with the Gunners winning eight of their last 10 visits to St James’ Park (L2).
- As well as being the joint-highest goalscorers in the Premier League this season with 26 goals, Newcastle have the best shot conversion rate (18.6%) and the second-highest expected goals total (22.1) in the competition so far.
- Eddie Nketiah is Arsenal’s highest scorer in the Premier League this season, with five goals from just seven shots on target. However, just one of his 19 goals overall in the competition has come north of London (v Burnley in May 2019), with all five strikes this season coming at the Emirates Stadium.
- Newcastle striker Callum Wilson is averaging a goal once every 60 minutes in the Premier League this season (7 goals in 420 minutes), the best rate of any player to have played at least 90 minutes this term. However, having scored in each of his first three league games against Arsenal, Wilson has now failed to score in any of his last nine against them.
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