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Horse Racing Newcastle vs AC Milan Tips: Team News, Predictions, Best Bets and OPTA Stats
It’s still all to play for in Group F of the Champions League as we bring you Newcastle vs AC Milan tips for a fixture that will decide who finishes second, third or bottom in the ‘group of death’.
If PSG drop points in Dortmund, the Toon will leapfrog them if they win, whereas the Rossoneri need success in St James’ Park and must hope that the Parisians will be defeated in Germany. As things stand, a place in the Europa League play-offs in February looms for both clubs. Italian football expert Daniele Fisichella analyses Wednesday’s big match.
Newcastle vs AC Milan Tips
- Newcastle vs AC Milan Tip 1: Newcastle To Score In The First Half
- Newcastle vs AC Milan Tip 2: BTTS – Yes
- Newcastle vs AC Milan Tip 3: First 10 Minutes: Over 1.5 Goal Kicks
In this article:
Newcastle vs AC Milan Tip 1: can Pioli turn it around?
Nine points behind leaders Inter Milan and with very slim chances to qualify for the next round of the Champions League, the Rossoneri, who have lost two of their last three games, are in crisis.
AC Milan have recently struggled to find the right balance during games, often risking too much despite a lack of defensive-minded players on the pitch.
Frequent muscular injuries haven’t helped Stefano Pioli to play his best formation, but in both games against Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta the team tried, naively, to play a very high-intensity game, with quick turnarounds without having the pace at the back to cope with the opposition attacks.
A calmer and more composed approach perhaps would have brought more benefits, but does AC Milan actually have the players to play that sort of game?
Reijnders and Loftus-Cheek have often struggled in defensive transitions, and the tactic of moving one of the full-backs (Florenzi in this case, with Theo Hernandez deployed in the centre-back position) inside the pitch has left the team exposed.
The defence, which has not been strengthened in the summer and has lost the protection offered by a player like Sandro Tonali (sold for a record fee to Wednesday’s rivals), is a real concern this season.
AC Milan have kept only one clean sheet in the last ten games, against Fiorentina, when Mike Maignan made a fantastic save in stoppage time.
- Newcastle vs AC Milan Tip 1: Newcastle To Score In The First Half (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.80
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10 /10
Newcastle vs AC Milan Tip 2: lack of fresh legs is affecting the Toon
Newcastle’s best displays so far have come at St James’ Park, where they have often shown tremendous bravery and intensity that helped them to have the better of sides such as Aston Villa, Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United and PSG.
Their tally in the Premier League speaks clearly: 21 points won at home, only five away.
But recently, mainly due to the many injuries, they’ve been very hit-and-miss: in fact, they lost four of the last seven games, keeping only one clean sheet (against Manchester United) but conceding 13 goals.
At the weekend, against Spurs, Newcastle players were often overrun and did not have the energy to double up on Son, who had the better of Trippier.
Would Rafael Leao, who’s coming back from injury and, in the reverse fixture, missed a couple of glaring chances, be able to exploit Newcastle’s tiredness?
At home, Newcastle have scored in all but one (0-1 defeat to Borussia Dortmund) games this season. But, on the other hand, missing Nick Pope in goal, whose outstanding saves were decisive in the Parc des Princes, might be a big blow.
- Newcastle vs AC Milan Tip 2: BTTS – Yes (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.70
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 15/10
Newcastle vs AC Milan Tip 3: A strong start is hosts’ best chance
Intensity will be the key for Newcastle, whereas AC Milan can win this match if they avoid going gung-ho.
The history of recent seasons tells that often, when the Rossoneri had their backs against the wall, they managed, somehow, to produce extraordinary performances.
Last year in the Champions League, they were not favourites against both Spurs and Napoli but managed to defeat them convincingly.
The recent performance against PSG at San Siro was a masterpiece in terms of team spirit, cohesion and strong defence.
A depleted AC Milan needs almost a perfect game to get out of St James’ Park unscattered, and Newcastle will try to lay down a marker early, knowing that taking the lead in the first minutes will put pressure on PSG.
The multitude of injuries means Newcastle can’t rely much on players coming off the bench, and perhaps their best chance of winning the game is to start strongly.
AC Milan would have to weather the storm first and then try to capitalise on those chances that Newcastle’s backline might inevitably concede them.
- Newcastle vs AC Milan Tip 3: First 10 Minutes Over 1.5 Goal Kicks
- Best Odds: 2.00
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 9/10
Newcastle vs AC Milan Team News: Leao’s long absence is over
Portuguese International Rafael Leao is set to return to the starting XI as he has recovered from the muscular injury that has kept him out for four matches.
Striker Noah Okafor, who has been absent since 11 November, might also be fit to make the bench. Defenders Simon Kjaer, Malick Thiaw, Pierre Kalulu and Mattia Caldara are all out, so Theo Hernandez will play his third consecutive match as a centre-back.
Eddie Howe welcomed back Callum Wilson and Sean Longstaff back from injury at Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday. But the Magpies have at least 13 players unavailable to play on Wednesday due to injury, suspension or ineligibility.
The most notable absentees are Nick Pope, Jacob Murphy, Dan Burn, Sven Botman and Harvey Barnes.
Midfielder Sandro Tonali will miss a second reunion with his former club due to suspension.
Newcastle vs AC Milan OPTA Stats:
- The only previous European encounter between Newcastle and Milan was a goalless draw on MD1 of this season’s UEFA Champions League in which the Italian side had 25 shots without success.
- In the opening five matchdays of the UEFA Champions League this season, Milan were the team with the highest percentage of their passes breaking at least one opposition line (15.4%). Théo Hernández is the player who has made the most line-breaking passes for the Italian side in the competition this term (41).
- Milan have won just one of their 21 away major European matches in England (D7 L13), a 1-0 win at Man Utd in February 2005. They are winless against nine other teams – Ipswich Town, Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur, Everton, Manchester City, Leeds United, Arsenal, Portsmouth and Liverpool.
- Newcastle goalkeeper Nick Pope – who will be unavailable in this game – was the top-ranked goalkeeper in the UEFA Champions League this season for goals prevented, based on the quality of shots on target faced. Pope conceded just five goals from an xG on target faced total of 9.9, with the English stopper preventing just under five goals (+4.9).
- Milan’s Rafael Leão (54) is one of only three players to have completed 50+ take-ons in the UEFA Champions League since the start of last season, along with VinÃcius Júnior and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. The Portuguese winger also has the best take-on success rate of any of those three players (55.7%).
How to watch Newcastle vs AC Milan
- Date and Time: Friday, December 8th, 19:45 (UK)
- How to Watch or Stream on TV (UK): TNT Sports
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